For many OECD regions population decline and ageing is already a reality. About one quarter of all functional urban areas and 3 out of 10 non-metropolitan regions in OECD countries shrank in the last two decades. Worldwide projections show that increased life expectancy coupled with lower fertility rates will result in population decline in most OECD and EU countries. Moreover, half of EU and OECD regions are expected to experience population shrinkage by 2050, and the proportion of the population aged 80 and above is projected to raise to nearly one in twelve people in G20 countries.

Depopulation and ageing mean that in many regions there is a mismatch between infrastructure, service provision and the built environment on the one hand, and the needs of the local population on the other. Population losses and ageing create over-supply and over-capacity as demand for housing and some public services – such as education – decreases, while demand for other public services, such as long-term and health care services and infrastructure adapted to the elderly, increases. Furthermore, demographic changes threaten efficient land-use and spatial development patterns as regions become sparsely and thinly populated, resulting in increased per capita costs for providing services and infrastructure to remaining residents.

This roundtable brings together academics, policy analysts and policy makers to discuss smart and sustainable policies on adaptation to population shrinkage in regions and countries experiencing sustained and strong population losses. The roundtable will be organised around three “imagined futures” their respective challenges, what policy makers can do to steer shrinking to be smart and sustainable, and what academics contribute to the process (Table 1).

Table 1: Challenges and policy issues around three imagined futures for OECD and EU regions