Hiroyuki Shibusawa (p), Mingji Cui

Yuval Arbel

COVID-19 has had a major impact on tourism and business travel. During the COVID-19 pandemic, transportation and tourism have shrunk, and regional economies have suffered greatly. Among transportation modes, the use of public transportation such as trains and buses was avoided, and private transportation such as private cars, motorcycles, and bicycles were more preferred. In this study, we clarify how the number of visitors has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, targeting Tokyo Station, Nagoya Station, and Shin-Osaka Station in major metropolitan areas of Japan. Using a gravity model, we estimate the visitor number function and analyze changes in the number of visitors during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In this paper, the destination area is set as the three station areas of Tokyo Station, Nagoya Station, and Shin-Osaka Station, and the departure area is the prefecture of residence. The observation period was set for six years from 2018 to 2023. The number of visitors at the three stations is calculated using an analysis tool (KDDI Location Analyzer) by providing certain conditions.
A gravity model is applied to the human flow data between three stations and prefectures. In the gravity model, it is assumed that the amount of population flow from one region (prefecture of origin) to another region (station of destination) depends on the attractiveness of each region and the distance between regions. A statistical analysis will be conducted on how the number of visitors to the three stations has changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, by comparing the changes in each coefficient from the results of the estimation formula of the gravity model, we will clarify the characteristics of visitors to stations during the COVID-19 pandemic. These results provide useful information for the resilience of station traffic in situations where infectious diseases are widespread.

Flavio Vieira (p), Cleomar Gomes da Silva

Hiroyuki Shibusawa

The main objective of this article is to investigate the global inflation rate behavior before and after the Covid-19 pandemic, for a panel of 42 advanced and emerging market countries. By making use of quarterly data from 2016Q3 to 2022Q3, in a System GMM econometric methodology, we will also investigate the consequences of the beginning of Russia-Ukraine War. The estimated global inflation empirical models indicate that: i) there is indication of anti-inflation persistence before the Covid-19 pandemic and increase in inflation persistence, and statistically significant, after the pandemic; ii) there is evidence of the Fisher Effect, via interest rate dynamics, for all estimated models; iii) there is exchange rate passthrough to inflation only for the post Covid-19/War period, but the deflationary process caused by the exchange rate dynamics has not been enough to contribute to an effective global inflation control after 2020; iv) food and oil prices seem to be specifically important in explaining the recent inflation surge; v) Global supply chain pressures helped to mitigate inflation, before the pandemic, but contributed significantly to the global inflation surge after the outbrea; vi) there is evidence that emerging market economies have been facing lower inflation rates, compared to advanced countries, especially in the post Covid-19/War period.

Yuval Arbel (p)

Mehmet Tahsin Şahin

Numerous studies have attempted to identify potential risk-factors associated with COVID-19 infection, including inter alia: age, diet, higher population density, and the quality and availability of health services. The objective of the current study is to analyze the weight of four covariates on a daily infection rate from SARS-CO V2 virus.
The method used is regression analysis, where each variable is converted to the standard normal distribution function. Results demonstrate that of the four investigated covariates, vaccination and population size have the highest weights. Given the empirical analysis, the most efficient way to achieve a reduction in the spread of the pandemic is via appropriate vaccination programs.