Jienhua Lu (p), Jinying Wang (p)

Davit Adunts

As the most dynamic factor of production factors in rural areas and the largest demander of Rural Revitalization Strategy，the changing trend of age structure of rural labor force is related to the level of agricultural labor productivity and the effectiveness of rural governance in China. It is found that the absolute level and relative growth rate of the aging of the rural labor force are higher than those in urban areas. In the next thirty years，the supply of rural labor force will continue to show the development track of the age structure fault，and the aging level of the labor force will always exceed the critical value of 40%. At the same time，there is a process of unbalanced distribution in spatial characteristics，with regional and provincial differences.The rapid increase of the aging level of rural labor force is due to the relative increase of elder rural labor force brought by the age-selective rural-urban transfer of labor force and the sharp rise of the dependency ratio of the rural elderly population under the background of the intensified urban-rural inversion of aging，which will gradually change the original distribution pattern of agricultural production factors and rural social governance structure. It will inevitably have a profound impact on agricultural economic activities and rural social system.Based on this，it is proposed to effectively address the aging of rural labor force in the context of comprehensively promoting Rural Revitalization Strategy，in order to improve the quality of rural human capital and unleash the initiative of rural social entities.

Marcin Stonawski (p), Leo van Wissen (p), Andreu Domingo Valls, Timothy Heleniak, Michaela Potančoková, Ingeborg Spiegeler Castaneda

Jinying Wang

Europe is at a turning point in demographic development. Since 2020 the European population has turned negative. Natural population change (the difference between the number of births and deaths) has reduced in almost all countries in the last decades, and has turned negative for the Europe since 1993, with some flare-ups around 2010. This was compensated by increasing net migration numbers ever since the fifties of the 20th century. As a consequence, some countries are still growing in population size, whereas other countries are shrinking. This stage of population decline is sometimes called the fifth stage of the demographic transition. At the regional level the variation in population change is even much larger, due to the additional impact of internal migration, including urbanization, suburbanization, and counter-urbanization.
In this paper we explore the impact of the various components of population change on population and societal renewal of spatial areas of different territorial aggregation. We also study the impact of international migration on internal migration, and on natural growth. This entails new typological considerations based on demography, and taking into account the time dimension as well: are these historically immigrant or emigrant regions, or can this be considered a relatively recent phenomenon?
In assessing the role of mobility in regional development, we will distinguish between Complex Systems of Demographic Reproduction (CSDR) based on immigration (when population growth depends on immigration), and Complex Systems of Demographic Reproduction based on emigration (when emigration takes diasporic forms so that the reproduction of the group and the driving force of the region depends predominantly on emigration). Using the mix of dimensions of mobility for all regions, and using standard clustering techniques we arrive at a regional mobility typology in four countries: Austria, Denmark, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands. We look at similarities and discrepancies between the resulting typologies and evaluate the outcomes. We also explore typologies based on different measures of population dynamics: (1) a multidimensional profile based on the components natural growth, internal and external migration; (2) taking into account country of origin; (3) a typology based on the population turnover rate and the migration share of turnover.
This study is part of the Horizon Europe project PREMIUM_EU (Policy REcommendations to Maximise the beneficial Impact of Unexplored Mobilities in and beyond the European Union, grant agreement 101094345 - AMD-101094345-3).

Tomasz Kossowski (p), Justyna Wilk (p)

Marcin Stonawski

Significant changes in the population structure in local administrative spatial units (LAU 2) have been visible for many years in Poland. There are several demographic and social reasons for these changes. They include: 1) vital processes of suburbanisation, 2) population migrations, both external and internal, including the growing influx of economic migrants to Polish in recent years, 3) changes in the family model, postponement of procreation and a decrease in fertility, a decrease in the number of marriages and an increase in the number of divorces, 4) an increase in life expectancy, 5) a pan-European process of population ageing. All of them result in changes in population structure, such as depopulation, overpopulation, population ageing, lack of productive age population, etc., in some areas of Poland.
In this paper, these demographic processes occurring across Poland are reasons for looking at general trends. We use population pyramids to see the population structures of 2477 local administrative units in Poland and their changes in 2002-2022 with a general overview for 1995-2001. This paper identifies the shapes of local population pyramids across Poland year-by-year and compares them with theoretical models of age-sex pyramids (for example progressive, regressive, etc.). For this purpose, we use multivariate non-parametric statistical tests of probability distributions. This procedure results in a set of pyramid time series for each local unit. Then, using cluster analysis, we identify typical demographic transition paths in Poland. Finally, we analyse the spatial distribution of these paths and changes in the spatial distribution of pyramid types over time.
In conclusion, we will identify the demographic challenges for local units. Policymakers can use the results of these studies to revise social and economic policies at the local level.

Davit Adunts (p), Bohdana Kurylo

Tomasz Kossowski

This paper examines the impact of international migration opportunities on origin-country skills composition by exploiting changes in migration opportunities induced by visa liberalization between EU countries and Ukraine. We use individual-level data from the universe of centralized test results and subject choices from end-of-high-school exams held from 2016 to 2019 in Ukraine. We exploit regional variation in aspirations to migrate to EU countries prior to the introduction of the visa liberalization policy and rely on the Difference in Difference approach to identify
the causal effects of the policy. Our results suggest that greater opportunities to emigrate to EU countries increased the probability students will choose subjects that are more likely to lead to internationally transferable skills in Ukraine. We find no evidence that greater opportunities to emigrate to the EU significantly affect student performance or the probability of failing exams in subjects that are likely to lead to more internationally transferable skills. This suggests that the observed increase in the share of students choosing more internationally transferable subjects was not accompanied by a decrease in student performance or in the competitiveness of the study programs.