Claudio Marciano (p), Alessandro Sciullo, Davide Grasso

José Afonso Teixeira

Like a virus making a species jump, the concept of resilience has been the protagonist of an impressive interdisciplinary spill over. This article focuses on the difficulties of including this concept in the epistemic plane of the social sciences, and proposes an analysis of the limitations encountered when it is applied in contexts characterised by components and regulatory processes at a different level of ontological stratification in comparison to phisical systems, such as mountain inner areas.
The contribution is structured in three parts: the first focuses on the interdisciplinary genealogy of the concept and the reflections that have attempted to interpret the causes, modalities and effects of its growing relevance for the social sciences. The second addresses some interpretative problems and proposes possible theoretical and methodological solutions oriented towards the inclusion of resilience in the domain of the social sciences. The last part delves into the case of a peculiar socio-ecological system such as that of mountainous inner areas, in which the dynamics of resilience are observed from an inverted perspective compared to the traditional one, namely by conceiving repopulation phenomena as trauma, rather than depopulation.

Alejandro Steven Fonseca Zendejas (p), Marcel Merette, María del Carmen Delgado López

Claudio Marciano

Changes in demographics have been observed in alterations to the population structure across age groups, influencing both developed and developing economies. Choudhry et al. (2016), suggest that negative economic impacts can be gauged by a higher fraction of economic dependency between the retirement age cohorts and the active population. They highlight the importance of the age composition of the population for both labour productivity and economic growth. Additionally, diverse studies propose that the economic consequences are linked to the decrease in the workforce (Garau et al., 2013; Lisenkova et al., 2013; Hirono, 2021).
In addition, Fougère et al. (2007) point out that the decline in labour supply and the shortage of young workers lead to alterations in consumption composition and labour market structure. The predominant approach in studies involves the utilization of macroeconomic models, specifically Overlapping Generations (OLG) models, where diverse household generations act as decision-makers in each period, with the objective of funding consumption during the retirement phase. Besides affecting goods and services markets and the labour market, the analysis has taken into account the consequences of demographic changes on public finances, migration, environmental impact, and sustainable development. Thus, OLG models integrate features of fiscal policy, including transfers and taxes, government spending, and public debt (Brett, 2012; Fanti & Gori, 2012; Augier & Yaly, 2013; Kim & Hewings, 2013; Fehr and Kindermann, 2018).
While it is possible to conduct various types of analyses through the framework of OLG models, few studies have explained the implications of demographic variations on the economy of Spain at both national and multiregional levels. For that reason, in this paper is aimed to verify, within the traditional OLG framework, economic impacts resulting from demographic changes and consequences for the economy steaming from the decrease in working population. The Spanish economy is taken into account because the largest share of general government expenditure in Spain is allocated to social protection, hence, the pension system in Spain is the focal point. Also, Spain faces significant demographic challenges as aging of the population, low fertility rates, migration and depopulation in rural areas. Our results will give an overview of redistributive results derived from public sector intervention with the purpose of verifying the sustainability of the public finance of population ageing and its potential policy measures.

Kerstin Tanis (p)

Alejandro Steven Fonseca Zendejas

Many European countries distribute refugees by law across the country and implicitly assume permanent settlement in those locations. Theory, however, suggests that internal mobility after allocation is a likely outcome, which is – on the one hand – based on individual preferences, but – on the other hand – strongly correlated to the structural environment. This study explores refugees’ residential mobility after dispersal in Germany – one of the most receiving countries worldwide. I analyse resettlement histories of refugees who entered Germany between 2013 and 2016 over a six- to nine-year span. Using longitudinal data of the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey on refugees, I explore, in a first step, relocation intensions and residential pref-erences (rural / urban) right after allocation. Afterwards, I employ a sequence analysis to study residential histories. Data is drawn from annual observations of the categorised urban degree of the location (large city independent of a district administration, urbanised district, rural district with signs of urbanisation, sparsely populated rural district rural). Residential mobility is thus revealed when it concerns movement to a different type of location. After presenting clusters of typical mobility patterns, I demonstrate in a last step how individual and household characteristics are related to each settlement cluster. In contrast to previous studies, which are mainly based on register data, I contribute to research by analysing the decision for internal mobility based on a rich data set at the micro level. The results of this study support regional policy makers in planning long-term refugee population growth or loss.
Preliminary results suggest – in line with literature – that residential mobility is significantly related to individual characteristics and that the type of the allocated municipality plays a crucial role for internal
mobiliy.

Ignacio Cazcarro (p), Miguel Martín-Retortillo, Guillermo Rodriguez-Lopez, Ana Serrano, Javier Silvestre

Kerstin Tanis

Depopulation, especially, but not only, rural, has become a major concern across many advanced and developing economies. This is particularly relevant in Spain, a country also characterized by severe environmental constraints on agricultural growth. As one type of place-based policy, irrigation programs in rural and urban areas have been claimed to contribute to the resettling of populations and reducing outward migration, by increasing agricultural output, productivity, competitiveness and, consequently, employment and the standard of living. However, no evaluation of the causal effect of irrigation, a heavily used policy both historically and currently, on population has been conducted to date. This article aims to elucidate on this relationship, using municipal-level data over the period 1910-2011 and exploiting a staggered difference-in-differences design. We engage with a recent literature that has turned to the use of historical data to analyze spatial aspects of economic activity, as long-term databases can offer better insights than modern data alone, especially in policy evaluation. Overall, we find a positive and significant effect on population only for irrigation developments that started in the relatively distant past. Principally, in the first peak in irrigation during the third quarter of the twentieth century. The effect is even negative for the most recent irrigation developments. At the same time, we find stronger effects in the smallest municipalities and municipalities farther away from cities, the latter less influenced by urban agglomeration externalities. In any case, effects are temporary or tend to level off. The results also show that one way of overcoming diminishing returns of irrigation over time is to greatly increase its intensity. However, there are trade-offs. We discuss the policy implications of the findings in light of current policies (for the 2022-2027 period), and in terms of environmental and economic costs of increasing the intensity of irrigation.

Dulce Pimentel (p), José Teixeira, Cristina Gomes

Ignacio Cazcarro

Migration is an important component of demographic change, especially for countries with a persistent negative natural balance due to low fertility and population ageing (Coleman, 2006; Bagavos, 2019). This paper analyses the contribution of migrants to the total number of births and compares their impact on demographic change in Portugal at a local level. Our analysis uses data from municipal databases, the Portuguese Statistical Office (INE) and Foreigners and Borders Service (SEF). Between 2017 and 2022 the foreign population living in Portugal increased by 85 per cent, totaling around 800,000 people last year, approximately 8 per cent of the total population (SEF, 2023). The influx of immigrants has made it possible to strengthen the younger age groups - of childbearing and working age -, thus mitigating the ageing of the Portuguese population (Oliveira, 2023). It should be noted that more than 77 per cent of foreign citizens living in Portugal are in the 25-44 age group, meaning they are of working age and starting a family. The proportion of births to immigrant women provides a basic indication of immigrants’ childbearing importance (Sobotka, 2008; Toulemon, 2004; Alderotti et al., 2023). During the last decade, immigrants have contributed substantially to the total number of births, and their share of total births has also increased in Portugal. In 2022, around 17 percent of the total number of births were to mothers of foreign nationality (14,003, almost the double than ten years earlier), reflecting an increase of 6 percent in live births to foreign mothers since 2010 in contrast to the downward trend in the total number of live births in the country (-17.5 per cent between 2010 and 2022). The geographical distribution of immigrants shows a concentration on the coastal areas, particularly in the Lisbon metropolitan area, as well as the south regions of Alentejo and Algarve. However, in other regions further from the major urban centres, the increase in the foreign population could help mitigate the depopulation and ageing process.