Federico Fantechi (p), Felipe Livert, Ugo Fratesi

In a historical context of incumbency advantage: Is there an electoral punishment for mayors who perform poorly during emergencies? Do poor results during an emergency mobilise new voters? What about the voter turnout of lagging territories with high vulnerability or low social capital? To determine the relationship between inefficient performance and electoral outcomes, we analyse the electoral behaviour of those municipalities that were affected by a high-intensity earthquake and did not obtain economic aid for recovery, focusing on municipalities that were excluded from the official declaration of earthquake-affected municipalities. The methodological approach is difference in differences with propensity score matching, analysing four major earthquakes and electoral data over three decades. Our estimates indicate that mayors of municipalities severely affected by earthquakes who did not get financial support in the next election decrease their vote. The mayor's poor performance during the emergency generates a mobilisation of new voters. Voter turnout increases even more in lagging territories, municipalities with lower levels of social capital and higher levels of social vulnerability. These results have implications for electoral accountability theory, because in a political scenario of high re-election rates, voters are able to critically evaluate politicians who mismanage an exogenous shock such as an earthquake.

Ricardo C. A. Lima (p), Pedro Alves, Philipp Ehrl

Federico Fantechi

This paper analyzes how a natural disaster affects the spatial distribution of establishments and workers, using the devastating 2008 Santa Catarina Flash Flood (Brazil) as a natural experiment. We combine synthetic-aperture radar images that show the exact location of flood spots with geocoded employer-employee data to estimate the impact of the disaster. We find that establishments in affected areas
have a higher chance of closure but they do not adjust to the shock through business relocation or market entry. Workers dismissed in the wave of disaster face reduced job prospects, with no impact on wages or migration rates for those who do find new employment. These effects persist over the analyzed 5- to 9-year period.

Fernando Pozzobon (p), Isabel Proença

Ricardo C. A. Lima

In recent years, there has been a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters worldwide, which has had profound effects on communities and economies. In Brazil, the southern region of the country is particularly vulnerable to such events due to its location in a corridor that is conducive to the formation of tornadoes and cyclones. An example is the Cyclone Bomb that hit the region in 2020. This event is characterized by rapid intensification, commonly known as bombogenesis. The damage and disruption it caused left an indelible mark, claiming at least 12 lives and affecting more than a million people. This article aims to analyze the economic impact of one of such economic disasters, namely the Cyclone Bomb, on agricultural, industrial, and service production, going beyond the immediate direct effects to uncover the complex chain reaction of impacts and their resulting spatial spillovers on various aspects of society. A comprehensive understanding of the effects of natural disasters on the regional economy is crucial to formulating effective mitigation and adaptation policies that promote sustainable development and economic resilience. Improving understanding of the intricate interplay between natural disasters and the regional economy will equip Brazil's southern region to confront imminent climate challenges with greater efficacy. To assess the effects of the event, we utilized spatial econometrics and employed the Spatial Lag X (SLX) model, which considers the spatial dynamics of the event and accounts for direct, indirect, and total effects.
This study uses publicly available data to examine the economic impact of Cyclone Bomb events in Brazil. The outcomes of interest measure the value added and employment in the agricultural, industrial, commercial and services sectors. These variables, along with population information, are obtained from the annual reports on the website of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Data on the municipalities affected by the Cyclone Bomb can be obtained from the Ministry of Integration and Regional Development. Control variables related to voting behavior and political orientation are extracted from the Brazilian Electoral Justice. The panel data covers the years 2019 and 2021 for all municipalities in the southern region of Brazil. By enhancing our understanding of the interplay between natural disasters and regional economies, this research aims to equip Brazil's southern region with knowledge for resilient and sustainable development in the face of imminent climate challenges.