Fabiano Compagnucci (p), Martina Dal Molin, Giulia Urso

Ricardo Martinez De Vega Perancho

The mobility of students has always a neoclassical model, migration flows are considered an adjustment mechanism for balancing economic and social disparities among territories. Extant studies demonstrated that several factors affect the student choice process of a university, such as its overall quality and that of life in the destination provinces. They farther show that students generally migrate from peripheral areas to selected urban and metropolitan areas, where universities are typically located. However, a new stream of research is investigating the counterflow of students, who, on the contrary, move from central to more peripheral areas. These “counter-flows” of students, although small in scale, may represent a crucial driver for the renewal of peripheral universities as well as for the local development of inner areas (Fonseca, 2023). Based on these premises, this study aims at identifying the determinants of Italian counter-flow students’
mobility at the province level (NUTS 3) over the period 2010-2023. We consider: i) students living and studying in these areas; ii) students moving from a peripheral province to a university belonging to a different peripheral province; and iii) students moving from metropolitan to peripheral areas (counter-flows). The econometric analysis is based on data on students’ characteristics, to be coupled with those regarding the universities’ characteristics and the local socioeconomic milieu.

Riccardo Curtale , Filipe Batista e Silva, Lewis Dijkstra (p)

Fabiano Compagnucci

Nowadays, urban and rural NUTS3 regions in the EU present different characteristics and are affected by specific challenges. Rural regions are affected by depopulation and ageing, while urban contexts deal with constraints for land use management. It is difficult to predict how much these problematics will accelerate or decelerate in the future in the EU due to a lack of proper tools. Socioeconomic projections at the EU level are only conducted at the national level, which fail to captures the different dynamics and challenges that urban and rural regions are expected to face.
We present an innovative model, namely the Demography-Economy-Land use interaction (DELi) as a new tool for regionalizing socioeconomic and demographic projections from country-level to NUTS3 regional level in the EU.
The model integrates empirically-derived assumptions regarding future regional growth and estimates regional levels of GDP, employment, population, and land use in an integrated manner. It captures demography-economy feedbacks and processes of divergence and convergence across regions. It fills a gap in the EU policy support by providing a comprehensive, integrated, transparent, and flexible framework for regionalizing socioeconomic projections.
We present a set of NUTS3 level socioeconomic projections consistent with the country-level projections from the European Commission Ageing Reports. The results show different trends of population and economic growth trajectories between urban and rural regions. Results from our research can be used to quantify scenarios of regional socioeconomic trends for anticipatory policy support on domains with a strong regional or territorial dimension.

Franz Sinabell, Gerhard Streicher, Peter Reschenhofer, Anna Renhart (p)

Lewis Dijkstra

Forests provide many ecosystem services, spanning from productive outputs like timber to recreational amenities and preventative services such as shielding settlements from rockfalls, landslides, and avalanches. Industries situated in these protected areas reap these benefits without direct financial contributions. While rural regions are primary beneficiaries, intermediate and urban areas also enjoy these services, albeit to a lesser extent.
However, the protective capacity of forests faces escalating threats due to climate change, resulting in more severe storms, increased forest fires, and heightened bark beetle infestations. Simultaneously, economic development and population growth amplify the demand for these ser-vices. Our interdisciplinary research project explores the economic advantages of protective forests, focusing on potentially protected rural areas susceptible to hazards. Maps pinpoint potential threats and aid in identifying economically valuable assets, like infrastructure and jobs, vulnerable to these perils.
The study examines Austria, an ideal case due to its rural regions contributing significantly to manufacturing and services jobs, with protection forests playing a pivotal role due to the country's topography. Utilizing protective forest maps, area information, and employment data, we analyze the potential job displacement if firms in less location-bound industries relocate to less vulnerable regions. Assuming agglomeration benefits drive relocation decisions, our model envisions firms selecting the nearest intermediate or urban region with the relevant industry employment share.
In this scenario, employees face the dilemma of either trailing their firms or seeking new job opportunities in a more limited job market. Commuting or relocating becomes a necessity, with longer distances to workplaces in the counterfactual scenario we analyze. Our primary interest lies in understanding the labor market dynamics, quantifying the number of jobs directly reliant on ecosystem services, and predicting potential job displacements if protective forests no longer offer these benefits. The results hold implications for industries like agriculture, forestry, quarrying, and tourism, which are less likely to relocate, further shaping the labor landscape and commuting patterns.