Thomas Schwab (p)

Karina Maria Berbert Bruno

The European Green Deal mandates a substantial transformation of the energy sector, responsible
for more than 80 % of total greenhouse gas emissions. This study investigates the economic implica-
tions of achieving climate neutrality in the European energy sector in light of the EU's core goal of
economic cohesion, i.e. harmonious economic development across European regions. Employing a
novel multi-regional input-output model, our analysis reveals how the renewable energy transition
affects European regions. Under complete decarbonisation, changes in value added per capita range
from -2,450 Euro to +1,570 Euro, and employment levels fluctuate between -2.1 % and +4.9 %. On
average, most regions experience positive effects, characterised by an average increase in value
added per capita of 10 Euro and a 0.3 % rise in employment in 2050. Overall, rural regions with sub-
stantial renewable energy potential derive the greatest benefits, while urban regions heavily reliant
on carbon-intensive industries are more likely to experience adverse effects. This dynamic fosters
economic cohesion by providing opportunities for lagging regions to catch up, yet also poses fresh
challenges to achieving this goal. Therefore, cohesion policy must expand its scope to counter the
adverse effects as well as leveraging opportunities created by the renewable energy transition in all
European regions.

Loes Bouman, Dimitris Ballas (p), Wander Jager

Thomas Schwab

This paper considers the spatial effects of the Green Deal from the perspective of the economic and social geography of relevant social attitudes at intra-urban levels. In particular, the paper presents outputs of the EU Horizon 2020 project PHOENIX (The rise of citizens voices for a Greener Europe , which is a Horizon 2020 EU-funded project https://phoenix-horizon.eu/) with a particular focus on the development and application of social simulation models of green citizenship social attitudes and behaviours. The paper demonstrates an application of spatial microsimulation and agent-based modelling in a field which to the best of our knowledge there have been very limited research efforts to date. In particular, the paper demonstrates the stepping stones in developing a novel multi-method as part of the PHOENIX project with a focus on understanding citizens participation in Democratic Innovations (Dis) by taking socio-cultural, environmental and different geographical administrative levels into account. First, we present a spatial microsimulation model that combines data from the European Social Survey with small area data in one of the key pilot areas of the PHOENIX project, the city of Bologna. The results of spatial microsimulation models are then used as input for an spatial agent-based social simulation model which is used to for the analysis and mapping of pro-environmental behaviors. The paper concludes by discussing the next steps in the development and application of the models, which area currently further developed as well as tested and co-created with partners in the PHOENIX consortium and local practitioners, citizens and other stakeholders.

Alexandru Banica (p), Ramona Țigănașu, Peter Nijkamp

Dimitris Ballas

Recent global challenges have reinforced the need for countries to channel their efforts towards certain pressing problems that, without immediate actions, can lead to serious consequences for humanity. Thus, in the present study the focal point is on digital and environmental issues, put in connection with the institutional quality of countries. Building a link between digitalization and a green environment was a concern of governments even before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, but after this unforeseen shock, there was a growing interest of different institutions to address social inequalities, climate change, environmental degradation and economic resilience. Reducing the discrepancies recorded at various territorial levels included, among others, encouraging a digital and green economy. Although the need for investments in these two directions is recognized, their implementation could be quite unequal between states. The capacity of institutions to engage responsibly in this process is of overwhelming meaning.
When discussing green transformation, there are specific priority fields where digitalization could generate advantages compared to other domains, especially in terms of reducing environmental impact and improving sustainability. Meanwhile, the negative environmental effects of technology also deserve to be discussed. We investigate if, as a result of different approaches in different parts of the world, the digital and green transformations are evolving in the same direction, showing reciprocity. They are also analyzed in relation to a broader scale of development and institutional quality indicators. Assuming these, in the paper, we measure the digital and environmental performance at the level of 150 states, using a multitude of secondary data sources: Digital Development Dashboard, Global Footprint Network, Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, World Bank, Penn World Table, International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, The Economist Intelligence Unit, The Fund for Peace, Fraser Institute and Heritage Foundation. The data are collected dynamically so that we can differentiate the performance gaps between countries pre- and post-COVID crisis, but also ascertain whether the institutional quality can compose the explanatory factor of the readiness for digital and environmental transformations. The assorted research methods used (e.g., geographically weighted regression, multiple correspondence analysis, fuzzy k-means, SEM and so on), point out the pivotal role of institutions in digital and environmental performance, even though the less developed countries struggle to recover the gaps accumulated over time. At last, some practical insights are exposed to reduce the digital and environmental disparities between states and to produce long-term productive transformations.

Karina Maria Berbert Bruno (p), Gustaf Nórlen, Maria Bobrinskaya

Alexandru Banica

The Green Transition (GT) is a complex topic that presents challenges from concepts to practices and application policies. When considering industries and occupations, it can be difficult to determine what is green and what is polluting. The European Green Deal (EGD) is focused on a decarbonizing transition, but how does it benefit from the concepts of "green" and "polluting"? If no one should be left behind during the GT, what territorial scales should be taken into consideration? This study discusses the classification of occupations and industries as green or polluting under a contextualized spatial scale, taking into account national and regional levels, as well as employment-industry characteristics. The study focuses on analyzing the employment distribution in the industry sectors of Sweden between 2013 and 2022, taking into account the greenness intensity of green jobs and GHG emissions per sector. The analysis is conducted at both regional and municipal levels, and the results are discussed in context, considering the strengths and weaknesses of each region's main industry sectors over time. Preliminary results show a trend of decreasing emissions in Sweden from 2013 to 2021, while employment has increased over the same period, except for specific decrease points. The distribution of employment among regions indicates the predominance of certain industries in specific areas. However, there is an uneven concentration of green-task jobs and CO2 equivalent emissions for the year 2021. This work is still in progress, and by identifying any trends, it can modestly improve our understanding of the potential opportunities in green jobs, industries, and employment.