Marcello Graziano (p)

Federico Chmet

Renewable energy transition involves extensive planning for new solar and wind farms across the world. National and local projections for the Northeastern United States foresee an increase of variable renewable energy sources by 150% to 600% by 2030, and an increase of controllable renewable sources by 3% to 10%, in a fast decarbonization and slow denuclearization framework. The investments required to operationalize these changes will likely have a profound impact on the region's economy, which, in turn, will further affect the regional demand for energy products. Partnering with weather experts and power engineers, this work presents the socioeconomic impacts of this journey through the transition for one of the states in the US N.E. ISO region, Connecticut. Through a transdisciplinary work with experts and stakeholders from different fields, we have created a REMI-friendly input matrix, upon which the modeling (years 2025-2050) was created. More importantly, this work provides an example of how to work transdisciplinary for modelling and understanding complex and transformative phenomena such the rapid decarbonization of one of the largest energy regions in the world.

Roberta Capello, Andrea Caragliu (p)

Marcello Graziano

Recent geopolitical tensions have drawn the attention of both academics and policymakers on the role of a cooperative attitude both within Europe as well as at the global level in driving economic performance. However, the complex and entangled nature of these tensions have prevented from a full-fledged forecasting exercise showing likely outcomes of alternative behaviors. In this paper, we provide a quantitative measurement of the medium/long run effects of four alternative scenarios, combining two alternative future developments of within-Europe and global attitudes towards cooperation, viz. European cooperation, Eu competition, global cooperation, and global fragmentation. Qualitative assumptions are quantified and included into the MAcroeconometric, Social, Sectoral, Territorial model 5 (MASST5), a regional macro-econometric forecasting model, with which simulations of GDP growth at regional (NUTS2) level are obtained.
Our results suggest that a scenario comprising a more cooperative attitude both within the EU as well as at the global level would be associated with superior economic performance. Results also suggest that in all four scenarios, regional GDP growth would be faster than in a baseline scenario, assuming no solution to the present geopolitical tensions; in fact, all four scenarios would imply a solution to the geopolitical conditions, irrespective of the way in which this would occur. Lastly, results also suggest that faster GDP growth in the two scenarios characterized by EU cooperation would also be associated with a slowdown in convergence, due to the overall faster economic growth, causing faster growth in richer portions of the EU with respect to lagging regions.

Gioele Figus (p), Geoffroy Duparc Portier, Aditya Maurya

Andrea Caragliu

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of regional detail for impact analyses of changes in trading agreements using computable general equilibrium models (CGE). Taking the UK as a case study we compare the results from a UK national CGE model regionalised using simple regional Gross Value Added (GVA) shares with the results of models of the UK nations and regions. We begin by developing and applying a method to disaggregate the UK Input Output (IO) accounts into a set of consistent multi regional IO tables (MRIO). Using these accounts, we calibrate a set of CGE models that differ only from the regional disaggregation. In each model, we simulate an increase in openness to trade and calculate a series of bias measures reflecting spatial and temporal aspects. Results from simulations show that aggregated bias is relatively small and increases with the number of regions. The bias is larger for short-run results where constraints in supply drive a higher variation in prices. The aggregation bias is larger and more heterogeneous at the regional level. Regions which are less similar to the average (e.g. the East of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland) record larger regional aggregation bias measures than regions that are more similar to the average in the UK. The results support the development and use of region specific accounts for impact analysis of trade policy.

Paolo Biancone, Silvana Secinaro, Valerio Brescia, Davide Calandra, Federico Chmet (p), Federico Lanzalonga

Gioele Figus

This study explores the adoption and impact of the Metaverse in public sector organisations, focusing on the case of the Piedmont Region's (Italy) initiative against cyberbullying. It addresses the challenges and opportunities of integrating the Metaverse into public services and measures its social and economic impact. Employing a qualitative methodology, this research utilises a hybrid topic and content survey, including semi-structured interviews with experts involved in the Metaverse project in the Piedmont Region. The study is grounded in the stakeholder engagement theory and employs the Gioia methodology for data analysis. Our study reveals that while the Metaverse offers significant opportunities for innovation in public services and citizen engagement, its integration into public institutions faces technical, ethical, and governance challenges. These include the need for robust digital infrastructure, data privacy concerns, and the necessity of interdisciplinary approaches for effective technology accountability. The case study demonstrates the potential of the Metaverse in addressing social issues like cyberbullying and highlights the importance of measuring both quantitative and qualitative impacts. This research contributes original insights into applying emerging technologies like the Metaverse in the public sector. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the challenges and potential of the Metaverse in public institutions, particularly in the context of social issues, and proposes a framework for assessing its social and economic impact.