Olga Ivanova (p)

Erica Delugas

European policy makers are increasingly interested in higher spatial representations of future long-term scenarios that are relevant for both climate mitigation and climate adaptation. The most important global long-term scenarios are the five SSP scenarios of IPCC that come with the new update in 2024. At the present moment, EU-wide quantitative sub-national level SSP scenarios are missing in the literature. In this paper, we make use of the global Spatial Computable General Equilibrium model EU-EMS that includes explicit representation of all 242 NUTS2 regions of Europe in order to regionalize the new SSP scenarios. We start by combining global SSP demographic scenarios (in particular for EU countries) with the regional demographic trends Eurostat. We continue by combining macro-economic productivity developments from SSP scenarios with econometric analysis using latest EU-KLEMS data in order to be able to project the developments of sector-specific productivity in different SSP scenarios. Finally we combine demography, productivity and assumptions about future developments of globalization and trade under the structure of EU-EMS model. We further analyze the impacts of different SSP scenarios on regional economic growth and disparities in Europe on the basis of maps as well as using the calculated Theil index.

Michel Dimou (p), Alexandra Schaffar

Olga Ivanova

This work aims to study income and labour market inequalities for the immigrant population in France. The study builds upon previous work from Dimou et al (2020) and Ettouati and Schaffar (2020) on the integration of immigrants in France. It uses however original data that comes from the 2022 TEO database which features individual attributes information both for immigrants and for the immigrants descendants. This study has been conducted within the ESSPN H2021 Project on “Economic, Social and Spatial Inequalities in Europe in the Era of Global Mega-Trends”.
This study first shows that the wages and incomes of immigrants are not significantly different than natives’ ones. However, it also shows that the immigrants have less opportunities to enter local labor markets and find a job. This means that discrimination doesn’t take place at the level of the wage but on the opportunity to find a job. For the descendants of the immigrants, the situation is improving but still doesn’t quite converge to the natives’ performances. The study also shows that differences among immigrants appear: they depend from their educational level and other personal attributes but also from the time they have moved to France and their location within an ethni community or not.

Erica Delugas (p), Giulio Consiglio, Emanuela Sirtori

Michel Dimou

This paper analyses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on enterprises in Italy. By leveraging the Aida Italian business microdata from Moody’s, along with firm census data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics covering the period 2019-2022, we explore the varied performance of Italian enterprises and the competitiveness of territories at the provincial level in relation to restriction policy measures. Utilising a weighted multi-way fixed effect estimator, we analyse the uneven impacts of COVID-19 containment measures on firm performance across different Italian provinces. Additionally, we construct two hypothetical alternative closure scenarios at the provincial level and microsimulate their impacts on firms. Our findings provide an analysis of the uneven impacts of COVID-19 containment measures on business performance across different Italian provinces. By exploring the sectoral dimension of these impacts, we offer evidence on which provinces were most affected by closure policies, thereby contributing to the literature advocating for local and sectoral-based policies to support firm and regional competitiveness. Our simulation exercise demonstrates how varying provincial-level closure management strategies could have differently impacted firm performance. Our findings illustrate that different combinations of closure days could have mitigated some economic losses during 2022 but would have exacerbated them in 2021.