Online-G37 Ecological Transition
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Ordinary Session
| Monday, August 26, 2024 |
| 16:45 - 18:30 |
Details
Chair: Marta Castellini
Speaker
Mr André Alves
Ph.D. Student
IGOT, University of Lisbon
Decoding the Landscape: Spatial Analysis of Factors Behind Photovoltaic Plants Locations in Continental Portugal
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
André Alves (p), Eduarda Marques da Costa , Eduardo Gomes, Samuel Niza
Discussant for this paper
Marta Castellini
Abstract
Solar photovoltaic technology is the fastest-growing worldwide (IRENA, 2023). As the energy transition unfolds, the selection of sites for solar power plants (SPP) has emerged as a pressing issue. Previous studies have highlighted controversial siting decisions resulting in land cover changes in agricultural areas and impacts on protected zones (Hernandez et al., 2015; Valera et al., 2022). Due to the substantial spatial requirements of these installations (van de Ven et al., 2021) and the emergence of opposition movements against renewable energy initiatives (Susskind et al., 2022), careful consideration of SPP locations is crucial.
Formulating land-use policies conducive to a sustainable energy transition, integrating critical ecological concepts (Moore-O’Leary et al., 2017), requires a comprehensive diagnostic. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between planned SPP projects and potential drivers in continental Portugal. Our primary objective was to discern the factors influencing SPP spatial patterns and measure their relative distributions. To achieve this, we considered variables such as topography, land cover, environmental protection zones, power production potential, among others.
We utilized a presence-only regression (with cross-validation) to identify significant factors explaining the distribution of planned SPP facilities. Subsequently, we calculated a location coefficient to assess their relative to the reference area across different variables.
The regression analysis, with a precision of 73.4% (±1.8 at the 95% confidence level), showed that distance to transmission lines, photovoltaic potential power output and slope are the most significant factors. The location coefficient revealed that developers have prioritized areas characterized by low slopes (<5º), proximity to transmission power lines (<2000 m), photovoltaic power potential (>1500 kWh), facing south and southwest, agricultural, pasture lands, areas without vegetation as well as eucalyptus plantations. Additionally, it was observed that most projects are expected within the immediate fringes (<2000 m) of national agricultural and ecological reserves.
This study contributes valuable insights into the interplay of factors shaping the spatial dynamics of SPP deployment. As the expansion of SPP continues, it becomes evident that technical and economic considerations predominantly dictate site selection. This growth highlights the likelihood of land use conflicts, particularly in relation to economic activities like agriculture and forestry.
Future research should focus on understanding how the growth of SPP impacts local communities and economies. Exploring ways to balance renewable energy expansion with traditional land uses could help minimize conflicts and ensure a smooth transition towards sustainable energy.
Formulating land-use policies conducive to a sustainable energy transition, integrating critical ecological concepts (Moore-O’Leary et al., 2017), requires a comprehensive diagnostic. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between planned SPP projects and potential drivers in continental Portugal. Our primary objective was to discern the factors influencing SPP spatial patterns and measure their relative distributions. To achieve this, we considered variables such as topography, land cover, environmental protection zones, power production potential, among others.
We utilized a presence-only regression (with cross-validation) to identify significant factors explaining the distribution of planned SPP facilities. Subsequently, we calculated a location coefficient to assess their relative to the reference area across different variables.
The regression analysis, with a precision of 73.4% (±1.8 at the 95% confidence level), showed that distance to transmission lines, photovoltaic potential power output and slope are the most significant factors. The location coefficient revealed that developers have prioritized areas characterized by low slopes (<5º), proximity to transmission power lines (<2000 m), photovoltaic power potential (>1500 kWh), facing south and southwest, agricultural, pasture lands, areas without vegetation as well as eucalyptus plantations. Additionally, it was observed that most projects are expected within the immediate fringes (<2000 m) of national agricultural and ecological reserves.
This study contributes valuable insights into the interplay of factors shaping the spatial dynamics of SPP deployment. As the expansion of SPP continues, it becomes evident that technical and economic considerations predominantly dictate site selection. This growth highlights the likelihood of land use conflicts, particularly in relation to economic activities like agriculture and forestry.
Future research should focus on understanding how the growth of SPP impacts local communities and economies. Exploring ways to balance renewable energy expansion with traditional land uses could help minimize conflicts and ensure a smooth transition towards sustainable energy.
Prof. Marta Castellini
Assistant Professor
University of Padua
Renewable energy communities, digitalization and information
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Dirk Bergemann, Marina Bertolini, Marta Castellini (p), Michele Moretto, Sergio Vergalli
Discussant for this paper
André Alves
Abstract
In this work we study the case of agents willing to engage in a Renewable Energy Community (REC).
The municipality - being the promoter of the REC - burdens all the investment costs (RE plants, storage, local grid interventions) and entrusts an aggregator of its operation paying a fixed tariff. The latter, acting as a monopolist, is also the sole supplier of energy for the REC’s members. The management of the REC requires the collection of energy data from the members to assure its efficient operation on the side of the self-consumption and exchange of energy within it. Such data allow also the identification of the agents’ preferences across energy devices and are an additional source of revenues for the aggregator thanks to their sell to third parts. This behaviour translates into a dis-utility the agents, which we call privacy cost. In such a framework, we consider also uncertainty on the side of the investment cost. On the basis of the outcomes of our model, we are able to study the effect of data collection policy performed by the aggregator on the size of the REC, while also accounting for agents’ valuation and the role of
uncertainty on the investment cost side.
The municipality - being the promoter of the REC - burdens all the investment costs (RE plants, storage, local grid interventions) and entrusts an aggregator of its operation paying a fixed tariff. The latter, acting as a monopolist, is also the sole supplier of energy for the REC’s members. The management of the REC requires the collection of energy data from the members to assure its efficient operation on the side of the self-consumption and exchange of energy within it. Such data allow also the identification of the agents’ preferences across energy devices and are an additional source of revenues for the aggregator thanks to their sell to third parts. This behaviour translates into a dis-utility the agents, which we call privacy cost. In such a framework, we consider also uncertainty on the side of the investment cost. On the basis of the outcomes of our model, we are able to study the effect of data collection policy performed by the aggregator on the size of the REC, while also accounting for agents’ valuation and the role of
uncertainty on the investment cost side.
