Hiroshi Sakamoto (p)

Currently, in Japan where low growth continues, the declining population due to the declining birthrate and aging population is a matter of concern. And the declining population is said to be more prominent in rural areas than in cities. Therefore, knowing the trend of population movement becomes very valuable information in talking about the future image of the Japanese economy. This study investigates interregional migration in Japan. There are 47 prefectures in Japan, but this study will not take up any prefectures here and focus on only 8 prefectures in Kyushu area. Kyushu area is located in a Japanese southwest area and also near Asia (China and Korean peninsula), and economical activation is expected in the future.
Kyushu area consists of the following prefecture: Fukuoka, Saga, Nagasaki, Oita, Kumamoto, Miyazaki, Kagoshima and Okinawa. Economic environment is different from other prefectures because Okinawa prefecture is island economy in it (Kyushu area, it itself is also an island). The center of the Kyushu economy is Fukuoka prefecture (Fukuoka-ken).
First, we analyze two kinds of statistical data on population movement. One is prefecture data, and the other is municipality data. Next, it will be predicted in the future using this information. This study develops a simple forecasting model using Markov chain, known as a stochastic model. If the transition probability matrix can be appropriately estimated, a forecasting model using the Markov chain can be constructed. In this study, we estimate the transition probability matrix of Markov chain directly from the Origin-Destination table of population movement. In addition, a method of estimating transition probability matrix by least squares method is introduced. Then, the future distribution (ergodic distribution) of the population movement is analyzed by obtaining the eigenvector of the estimated transition probability matrix.

Marina Morales Catalán (p), Miriam Marcén Pérez

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effects of welfare benefits on homosexual people migration by using the evolution of same-sex marriage regulation across the United States. Given that interstate differences in the treatment of homosexual households may attract welfare prone individuals, our study is supposed to be reasonable. For the main analysis, we use data from the American Community Survey of Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) from 2001 to 2015 US census. Our empirical approach makes use of the variations in the timing of homosexual marriage legalization across states. Our results show that the legalization of same-sex marriage permanently increases the proportion of homosexual individuals moving from another state. These findings are robust to alternative specifications and controls for observed (the legalization of homoparental adoption, the prohibition of discrimination based on gender identity in employment, housing and public accommodation, the approval of gender marker change on birth certificates, and the introduction of the repeal of sodomy laws) and unobserved state-specific factors, as well as time-varying factors at the state level. We also extend this analysis to the examination of both migration across contiguous and non-contiguos states, separately. (See full paper)

Theodoros Metaxas (p), George Theodossiou, Apostolos Goulas, Marie Noëlle Duquenne

The recent slow recovery of the Greek economy (from 2016) seems to be accompanied by a relative slowdown in total emigration. Moreover, in accordance to the Hellenic Statistical Authority, during the last two years (2016 and 2017), the net migration rate (difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants per 1000 inhabitants) is after six years, slightly positive. The weakness of the Greek economy explained that the above reversal does not concern all the aged groups: the net migration rate remains negative for the aged 25-49 and more especially for the young 25-29 years old with a rate around -6.0‰ against +1.0‰ for the entire population.
As highlighted by various studies, one of the most acute socio-economic consequences of the Greek economic crisis since the beginning of the decade was an unprecedented intensification of the Brain-Drain phenomenon. This is not a new situation because since the early 1990s, a number of highly qualified young people chose to emigrate, mainly to pursue studies at a very high level and / or to achieve a career advancement. What distinguish the present period of the pre-crisis one are the reasons for emigration as well as the intensity of the phenomenon. Nowadays, it is much more of a necessity (constrained decision) than a desired choice. In 2017, about 250,000 Greek researchers reside abroad and among them nearly 200,000 have left the country after 2010 (Labrianidis, 2018). Beyond the demographic problem raised by such a phenomenon, the economic challenge for the country is obviously major. Unless the brain-drain turns into a gain-drain, it is the whole process of Greek economic revitalization (with its corollary, its transition to the knowledge economy) that risks being compromised by the loss of human capital.
In this context, the aim of the present paper is to assess the main motives for young scientists to emigrate today despite the slow recovery of the Greek economy, highlighting their main profiles as well as their choice of destination countries. The analysis is based on the results of a survey implemented at national level during the second semester of 2017 and involving a random sample of 1063 scientists 18-39 years old. Finally, referring to the various empirical studies carried out during the last years, the objective of the study is also to determine to what extent the reasons for young scientists to leave the country would have changed during the crisis.

Davide Luca (p), Paola Proietti

Political crises and conflicts are pushing millions of asylum seekers towards the borders of Europe. This paper draws on the case of Italy, and investigates the shadow impact of organized crime in influencing the geography of reception centres, with the likely objective of skimming margins from the public resources devoted to reception activities. We gather data on the location of reception centres and on the presence of mafia across Italian municipalities. We exploit exogenous variation at municipal level to instrument mafia intensity, and provide evidence of how the presence of mafia affects both the likelihood of hosting a reception centre and the number of asylum seekers hosted. We then assemble an innovative dataset on public procurement for the set–up and management of reception centres. Statistical evidence and in–depth expert interviews suggest that the presence of organized crime is correlated to the use of direct procurement procedures over open calls.