Mark Partridge (p), Cecile Détang-Dessendre, Virginie Piguet

Migration and commuting flows are two mechanisms reducing aggregate unemployment and accelerating adjustments to asymmetric regional shocks, combined with labor force participation and unemployed workers (Partridge et al, 2012, 2017). In this paper, we focus on the two mobility types (commuting and residential) to disentangle the professional and the residential motivations in both flows. Using zero-inflated negative binomial model (ZINB), we estimate gravity models, explaining both flows between employment areas in France. To capture the impact of local labor market characteristics, we introduce in particular (i) predicted local change in employment using sectoral structure, employment potential for qualified and non-qualified workers (local employment by category/active residents of that category). Different amenity indicators are built to capture local residential characteristics: after testing classical indicators such as presence of protected zoning, share in forest or costal area, we tested indicators built on Corine land cover and following Paracchini et al (2014). We show that flows of qualified workers are more impacted by local labor market characteristics (origin and destination areas) than flows of non-qualified workers. We also show that heterogeneous landscape at destination increases the residential arrival flows while heterogeneous landscape at residential area increases commuting flows.

Laura Virtanen (p), Bjarne Hartz Madsen , Jens Clausen

The Capital Region of Denmark has the highest share of inhabitants between the age of 20 and 35 in all of Denmark, representing about 24% of the total population in the region in 2016. In addition, the number of births in the Capital Region are expected to grow by 22% between 2016 and 2030. This is likely to have direct effects on the demand for midwives, gynecologists, obstetricians and pediatric specialists. Currently, there is a relatively balanced labour market for midwives in the Capital Region of Denmark. However, will the stock of qualified midwives be enough to meet higher demand in the future? How many more midwives will there be necessary to educate in order to retain a balanced labour market going out to 2035?
In order to assess the demand and supply of labor with educational qualifications in midwifery, the health version of the Local Interregional Economic model for Danish municipalities LINE has been used. The health version of LINE includes several model extensions, including an extended stock-flow demographic sub-model, a sub-model for the demand for individual governmental consumption, as well as the labour market sub-model. In order to accurately forecast the supply health care personnel, an education-graduation sub-model has been imbedded into the demographic model. For the sake of this paper, only the labour market for midwives is considered.
As reported by the Danish Ministry of Higher Education and Science, the educational capacity for midwives increased by 30 additional seats in 2018 in The Capital Region of Denmark. As an alternative scenario, this effect has been manually included in the in the model as a one-off increase of 30 additional admissions into the midwifery program. A forecast of this scenario, representing the consequences on demand and supply of labour with midwifery education, is presented.

Izabella Szakálné Kanó (p), Marianna Sávai

In today’s knowledge-based economy, human capital is gaining more and more importance. Especially in case of knowledge-intensive industries, it is crucial to have highly educated labour in place. In order to make the right decisions, educational and regional policies also need well-based economic analysis on the structure of the workforce and on changes of it.
On the one hand, regions with diverse labour force provide firms with skilled workers and they can also gain advantage from knowledge spillovers of other firms. On the other hand, regions with less diverse labour pool can offer advantages, which the firms benefit from in form of specialized local labour market, specialized local value chains and intra-industry knowledge spillovers.
In order to provide policymakers with a dynamic picture on the structure of the regional labour force, we analyse data based on Standard Classification of Occupations on NUTS3 territorial level (counties) in Hungary. Our goal is to gain this picture. In more detail, in our investigation, we apply dynamic Shift-share analysis on data between 2007 and 2015 to answer the following questions:
1. In which of the Hungarian counties were driven changes in the extent of workforce by changes in national workforce structure?
2. In which of the Hungarian counties were affected changes in the extent of workforce by regional characteristics?
3. Which of the counties had the most and the least diverse labour pool?
According to our expectations, counties with higher education institutions had higher qualified human capital, and in these counties workforce was affected mostly by their own regional characteristics. In other counties these changes were driven by changes in national workforce structure. This picture could change in time, our goal is to investigate how.

Pär Hansson (p), Kent Eliasson , Markus Lindvert

The employment in Sweden has become more concentrated to the larger cities in Sweden (Stockholm, Göteborg and Malmö). This paper investigates whether Swedish multinational enterprises (MNEs) have contributed to that development. We examine the association between offshoring within Swedish MNEs and changes their parent employment at regional level (in local labor market regions, LA-regions). The relation may vary depending on: (i) the characteristics of the region (large city, regional center or other region) or (ii) the type of labor (skilled or less-skilled) or the type of job (routine or non-routine) in the parent. Our results reveal large spatial heterogeneities in the relationships between MNE offshoring and onshore employment in various regions. The results suggest that MNE offshoring might be a factor contributing to diverging onshore employment among Swedish regions; increased (unchanged) employment in larger cities and unchanged (decreased) employment in regional centers and other regions. Moreover, MNE offshoring seems to contribute to increased localization of skilled activities and non-routine tasks to larger cities. We use enterprise data on employment in the parents and the affiliates overseas in Swedish controlled enterprise groups with affiliates abroad (Swedish MNEs). Parent employment data are available for different regions in Sweden, skilled and less-skilled labor, as well as for various occupations.