Elena Kotyrlo (p)

Shinichi Muto

Commuting is linked to fertility through demographic, social, and economic mechanisms. There are expected direct and indirect effects of commuting on fertility. An indirect response to labour mobility is assumed to affect both commuters and non-commuters. It is caused by the changes in the gender structure in the marriage market, by a spatial distribution of welfare, and by a spatial diffusion of family norms, in particular, the demand for children. Commuting women experience both direct and indirect changes in their preferences and attitudes towards children. They are hypothetically able to compare lifestyles and values in places of residence and work. In addition, daily transportation costs affect a commuter’s budget constraint, which, in turn, affects the demand for children. Therefore, the relationship between commuting and fertility is measured by a set of parameters that facilitate separation and isolation of the effects. As commuting and family life are expected to affect one another mutually, a bivariate probit model is applied to account for the endogeneity of commuting. Empirical evidence of the effect of commuting on fertility is based on age-specific regressions and testing the influence of commuting on first-birth rates (FBR) of women 21-32 years old residing in the Stockholm area in Sweden during 1993-2006. It is shown that commuting generates both positive and negative externalities for the demand for children. Average differences in first-birth rates of young, working women are estimated by a bivariate model with endogenous commuting. Empirical evidence based on administrative data (Sweden) reveals that commuting women have a lower probability of a first birth between 21-28 years of age and a higher probability between 29-32 years. Therefore, commuting women likely postpone their first child. Additional direct and spillover effects of commuting on fertility appear in income cross-municipal flows, diffusion of fertility norms across space, and changes in gender structure of the population of fertile age. A positive effect on relative income and social norms and a negative sex ratio effect are found significant both for commuting women and those who work in the municipality of their residence. Marginal effects for commuters are greater in magnitude.

Alina Schoenberg (p), Florian Bartholomae , Chang Woon Nam

Elena Kotyrlo

Weimar achieved urban recovery as a ‘consumer city’ with sub-brandings like a population magnet with a high living-quality, a cultural city with touristic attractions, and a university city. Its intensive cultural pro-motion policies combined with urban regeneration programs have contributed to the recent demographic and economic growth. This study demonstrates this success and investigates its sectoral weaknesses compared to other German cities. Weimar needs an optimal mixture of consumption- and production-oriented develop-ment strategies to rectify the current structural imbalances and better control those negative impacts caused by a rapidly ageing population. Besides ample presence and intact connectivity of high-tech industries and producer services within a city which enhance R&D, innovation and productivity, Weimar should more seriously consider, when designing future development policy, that both urban growth approaches are inter-related: agglomeration generates higher income for the creative class, whereas high urban amenities attract young creative entrepreneurs selecting locations for start-ups.

Shinichi Muto (p), Kazuki Hirabayashi

Alina Schoenberg

INTRODUCTION
The Maglev called by the Linear Chuo Shinkansen is going to open from Tokyo to Nagoya by 2027, and extended until Osaka by 2045 in Japan. The required time of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen from Tokyo to Nagoya which has 500 km distance will be 40 minutes from 90 minute that is the present required time of Tokaido Shinkansen. Its reduced ratio of required time is 56%. The required time from Tokyo to Osaka by extended the Linear Chuo Shinkansen until Osaka will be about 70 minutes from 190 minutes that is present time. Its reduced ratio of required time is 63%. The Linear Chuo Shinkansen is going to connect Tokyo largest metropolitan area, Chukyo metropolitan area and Kinki metropolitan area in around one hour. So people trips will be more active, and large economic effects are expected be generated for sightseeing, business and so on. However the fee of Linear Chuo Shinkansen is necessary to be set appropriately to occur those benefits certainly. Though appropriate fee is generally marginal cost pricing, Linear Chuo Shinkansen’s fee is not necessarily appropriate because to existing fixed costs such as constructing costs. When Linear Chuo Shinkansen’s fee is set by marginal cost pricing despite existing fixed costs, JR Tokai (the Central Japan Railway Co.) which is operating entity of Linear Chuo Shinkansen suffers a deficit because he cannot collect fixed costs. When fixed costs exist, a deficit is eliminated by average costs pricing. However, it is afraid that JR Tokai may set higher fee than average costs pricing, because he owns constructed infrastructures, can eliminate new entry and will be regional monopoly. Higher fees occur to decrease user’s benefit, so it is necessary to evaluate benefits of Linear Chuo Shinkansen by being considered setting fee.
In this paper, we show marginal each fee by marginal cost pricing, average cost pricing and monopoly pricing estimated by producing cost data which is published by JR Tokai. Next, we try to build the SCGE model incorporating high speed railway network, and introduced explicitly a producing behavior of transport sector. And we incorporate fixed costs or monopoly to the SCGE model to measure impacts for difference of set fee. As a result, we become able to treat transport cost endogenously that must change by carrying out transport projects. Finally, we calculate benefits of Linear Chuo Shinkansen for each set fee.