S60-S1 Road Safety Management in Developing Countries: the case of Africa
Tracks
Special Session
| Thursday, August 29, 2019 |
| 4:30 PM - 6:00 PM |
| IUT_Room 108 |
Details
Convenor(s): Laurent Carnis, Dominique Mignot, Luca Persia / Chair: Laurent Carnis
Speaker
Prof. Laurent Carnis
Senior Researcher
Université Gustave Eiffel
Safe System Management Model: When One Size Fits None!
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Laurent Carnis (p)
Discussant for this paper
Dominique Mignot
Abstract
See the extended abstract
Dr. Younes Hidra
University Lecturer
Université A/Mira de Bejaia
Impact of the main road risk indicators on the number of accidents that occur in Algeria
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Younes Hidra (p), Nouara Kaid Tlilane
Discussant for this paper
Dominique Mignot
Abstract
The object of our thesis is to determine the impact and degree of influence of the main road risk indicators on the number of accidents that occur each year in Algeria.
At first, based on a quantitative multi-variate modeling, we measured, for both rural and urban areas, the impact of the indicators related to the user’s behavior, the vehicle as well as the road environment on the occurrence of traffic accidents. The results show that traffic accidents occurred in urban areas were not influenced by the same variables than those occurred in rural areas, except for variables related to non-compliance with regulatory speed limit and dangerous overtaking.
In addition, a binary variable modelling was developed to determine the impact of the indicator related to the enforcement of statutory and regulatory bills on reducing the number of accidents. The expected impact in enforcing the various bills, further strengthening the functioning of the road safety system is reached in the short term but, the medium term results prove to be unsatisfactory on the ground.
All the more, in order to determine the impact of some factors related to the road user’s behavior, the traffic police and the various parties involved in training in driving-schools, our study was completed by a field survey of drivers in the county of Bejaia. The results of the survey confirm that: drivers who have never been subject to a driving offense are less likely to be at risk of an accident; the majority of offenders are not firmly repressed; the danger in mixed traffic is mostly generated by pedestrians, semi-trailers and motorcyclists. Thus, based on a logistic modelling, we confirmed that: the average distance covered is a risk factor for road accidents; negligence-linked recidivism becomes a high risk factor and long experience in driving does not spare the occurrence of an accident.
At first, based on a quantitative multi-variate modeling, we measured, for both rural and urban areas, the impact of the indicators related to the user’s behavior, the vehicle as well as the road environment on the occurrence of traffic accidents. The results show that traffic accidents occurred in urban areas were not influenced by the same variables than those occurred in rural areas, except for variables related to non-compliance with regulatory speed limit and dangerous overtaking.
In addition, a binary variable modelling was developed to determine the impact of the indicator related to the enforcement of statutory and regulatory bills on reducing the number of accidents. The expected impact in enforcing the various bills, further strengthening the functioning of the road safety system is reached in the short term but, the medium term results prove to be unsatisfactory on the ground.
All the more, in order to determine the impact of some factors related to the road user’s behavior, the traffic police and the various parties involved in training in driving-schools, our study was completed by a field survey of drivers in the county of Bejaia. The results of the survey confirm that: drivers who have never been subject to a driving offense are less likely to be at risk of an accident; the majority of offenders are not firmly repressed; the danger in mixed traffic is mostly generated by pedestrians, semi-trailers and motorcyclists. Thus, based on a logistic modelling, we confirmed that: the average distance covered is a risk factor for road accidents; negligence-linked recidivism becomes a high risk factor and long experience in driving does not spare the occurrence of an accident.
Mr Maxime Large
Ph.D. Student
IFSTTAR
Human cost of road morbidity: first results from M-Vasem (Method of Socio-Economic Valuation of road Morbidity) Project
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Maxime Large (p), Laurent Carnis, Jean-Louis Martin, Dominique Mignot
Discussant for this paper
Laurent Carnis
Abstract
The Vasem and M-Vasem research projects (Carnis et al., 2018) aim at valuing the cost of road morbidity in France. The main component of the cost of road accident is the human cost. The human cost of a road traffic injury refers to the disutility suffered by the victim as a result of the loss of quality of life due to a traffic accident and the loss of life expectancy due to the injury.
To estimate the human cost of road traffic injuries, we proceed with four main steps which are the identification of road injuries, the classification of road injuries into 39 EUROCOST groups, the calculation of DALYs suffered by each person and the application of a discount rate on future disabilities.
In the first year, the slightly injured and the seriously injured person hospitalized for a short stay suffer an average of 0.17 DALY and 0.22 DALY respectively. It is in the long term that the difference increases since the slight injured person suffers on average 0.99 DALY when the serious injured person suffers 2.43. When discounted, long-term disabilities almost halved to 0.54 DALY and 1.34 DALY for the slight and serious injuries. In total, the discounted human cost in DALYs of the slightly injured and the seriously injured hospitalized during short stays was estimated at 0.71 DALYs and 1.6 DALYs respectively.
This research work will allow to take into account specifically the human costs in the official balance sheet of road safety instead of using percentages of VSL to obtain figures with more scientific foundation.
To estimate the human cost of road traffic injuries, we proceed with four main steps which are the identification of road injuries, the classification of road injuries into 39 EUROCOST groups, the calculation of DALYs suffered by each person and the application of a discount rate on future disabilities.
In the first year, the slightly injured and the seriously injured person hospitalized for a short stay suffer an average of 0.17 DALY and 0.22 DALY respectively. It is in the long term that the difference increases since the slight injured person suffers on average 0.99 DALY when the serious injured person suffers 2.43. When discounted, long-term disabilities almost halved to 0.54 DALY and 1.34 DALY for the slight and serious injuries. In total, the discounted human cost in DALYs of the slightly injured and the seriously injured hospitalized during short stays was estimated at 0.71 DALYs and 1.6 DALYs respectively.
This research work will allow to take into account specifically the human costs in the official balance sheet of road safety instead of using percentages of VSL to obtain figures with more scientific foundation.
Dr. Dominique Mignot
Senior Researcher
Université Gustave Eiffel
Implementation of the African Road Safety Action Plan. SaferAfrica first results and recommendations
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Dominique Mignot (p), Laurent Carnis, Eduard Fernandez, Davide Usami, Ruth Welsh
Discussant for this paper
Laurent Carnis
Abstract
According to the Global Status Report on Road Safety 2015of WHO, “road traffic injuries claim more than 1.2 million lives each year and have a huge impact on health and development”. Using WHO classification of regions, there has been a further deterioration in road fatality rates in the WHO Africa region from 24.1 fatalities per 100,000 populations in 2010 to 26.6 fatalities per 100,000 in 2013. Road trauma in Africa is expected to get worse. Road traffic accidents resulting in deaths and injuries have an enormous impact on public health and the economy in Africa.
One objective of SaferAfrica project was to assess the implementation of Action Plan 2011–2020. This contribution presents the assessment supported by analyses completed at different scales (continental, regional, and country) (Mignot et al., 2018). The second main objective was to define some initiatives for different topics designed to foster the implementation of the Action Plan. The contribution focuses on the outcomes at the country level.
The choice was made to focus upon the analysis of the recommendations issued from the mid-term review of the African Road Safety Action Plan (ARSAP) and SWOT and PESTEL approaches through the different pillars of the Action Plan. Data was collected through a questionnaire (distributed among African road safety stakeholders) and international databases (mainly WHO data). Our analysis is based on inputs form questionnaires, international databases and expert’s knowledge. Results are available for the 5 identified pillars by the action plan.
Our evaluation clearly highlights that ARSAP mid-term evaluation recommendations are still relevant and have to be enhanced in most African Countries. Secondly, ARSAP mid-term evaluation proposes few recommendations for the pillars 3 and 4. Our analysis is able to propose some additional recommendations for those items, for example: Develop standards for full lifecycle of vehicles (old and news; Promote the use of child restraints).
At least, based on our analysis per pillar, two major recommendations could be made. They concern all pillars. African Countries have to: Develop consistent and systematic collection of data, in order to help public bodies for designing their public policy ; Enforce cooperation with NGOs and private sector representatives.
The main objective of SaferAfrica project is to provide African Countries tools for their road safety politics. These recommendations have now to be discussed with national contacts and authorities in charge of road safety, per country and with UNECA.
One objective of SaferAfrica project was to assess the implementation of Action Plan 2011–2020. This contribution presents the assessment supported by analyses completed at different scales (continental, regional, and country) (Mignot et al., 2018). The second main objective was to define some initiatives for different topics designed to foster the implementation of the Action Plan. The contribution focuses on the outcomes at the country level.
The choice was made to focus upon the analysis of the recommendations issued from the mid-term review of the African Road Safety Action Plan (ARSAP) and SWOT and PESTEL approaches through the different pillars of the Action Plan. Data was collected through a questionnaire (distributed among African road safety stakeholders) and international databases (mainly WHO data). Our analysis is based on inputs form questionnaires, international databases and expert’s knowledge. Results are available for the 5 identified pillars by the action plan.
Our evaluation clearly highlights that ARSAP mid-term evaluation recommendations are still relevant and have to be enhanced in most African Countries. Secondly, ARSAP mid-term evaluation proposes few recommendations for the pillars 3 and 4. Our analysis is able to propose some additional recommendations for those items, for example: Develop standards for full lifecycle of vehicles (old and news; Promote the use of child restraints).
At least, based on our analysis per pillar, two major recommendations could be made. They concern all pillars. African Countries have to: Develop consistent and systematic collection of data, in order to help public bodies for designing their public policy ; Enforce cooperation with NGOs and private sector representatives.
The main objective of SaferAfrica project is to provide African Countries tools for their road safety politics. These recommendations have now to be discussed with national contacts and authorities in charge of road safety, per country and with UNECA.
