Yoji Kunimitsu (p), Gen Sakurai

Extreme fluctuations of food prices in the global market, caused by the global synchronized production shocks due to climate change, may decrease the stability of food supply source portfolio through agricultural trade, like systemic risks in financial markets. This study aims to quantify the degree of systemic risk in the agricultural markets under future climate change and evaluate the effects of trade liberalization when systemic risk exists. Simulation analysis, using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on harvest predictions from crop model and global climate model (GCM), suggests the following. (1) In rice, which has the largest synergistic effect of output fluctuation, the output synergy was significant in combinations of trading countries with more than 40%. (2) This synchronicity of yields increases fluctuations in agricultural production and agricultural price by 22% and 84%, respectively. (3) Although trade liberalization can alleviate the vulnerability of agricultural production under climate change, in countries with large imports of agricultural products, such mitigation effect on price fluctuation by trade liberalization declines due to systemic risk. For example, in Japan, fluctuations in agricultural prices increase by about 7% due to worldwide synchronicity of yield changes as compared to the trade liberalization case with no systemic risk. Therefore, by taking into accounts the systemic risk under future climate change, it is necessary to examine the true effects of agricultural trade policies and prepare countermeasures in advance.

Dani Broitman (p), Boris Portnov

Epidemiological studies often focus on risk assessments associated with exposures to specific air pollutants or proximity to different air pollution sources. Although this information is essential for devising informed health policies, it is not always helpful when it comes to the estimation of potential health effects associated with the introduction or relocation of local health hazards. In this paper, we suggest a novel approach to forecasting the morbidity-reduction impact of hypothetical removal of a major air pollution source from a densely populated urban area. The proposed approach is implemented in three stages. First, we identify and measure the strength of association of individual environmental factors with local morbidity patterns. Next, we use the estimated models to simulate the impact of removal of the pollution source under analysis and its replacement by green areas. Using this assessment, we then estimate potential changes in the local morbidity rates by mutually comparing the observed risk surface of disease with the risk surface simulated by modelling. To validate the proposed approach empirically, we use childhood asthma morbidity data available for a major metropolitan area in Israel, which hosts a large petrochemical complex. According to our estimates, relocation of the petrochemical complex in question is expected to result in about 70% drop in the childhood asthma morbidity rate area-wide. To the best of our knowledge, the present study is the first that suggests an operational approach to incorporating epidemiological assessments as an input for urban development plans related to local sources of air pollution.

Ana Serrano (p), Rosa Duarte

The enlargement of the EU towards Central and Eastern Europe, started in 2004, represented a significant challenge for European political and economic agendas. Sixteen years later, Central and Eastern European countries have experienced a significant economic growth, mostly based upon industrial development and trade expansion, displaying a strong integration in European global value chains. During this period, the new member states have also been notable recipients of foreign investment, even in a context of the global economic crisis.

In this paper, we aim to analyse if this process of economic and commercial integration has also triggered the externalisation of environmental pressures towards Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, our main objective is to evaluate the existence of a pollution haven within Europe by evaluating the specialization of Central and Eastern European economies in “dirty” industries because of trade. To that aim, we will use multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables from 1995 to 2011 that will allow us to quantify the environmental pressures embodied in intra-European trade, distinguishing between intermediate and final products. This approach is optimal to assess the existence of pollution havens, given the global fragmentation of supply chains and the importance of intermediate flows that embody large environmental pressures. As a second step, we will use Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) aiming to identify and quantify some of the factors responsible for the changes in the pollution embodied in trade.

The results of this study can offer a comprehensive vision on the environmental consequences of the integration of Central and Eastern countries in the EU. This is particularly relevant for the development of strategies and regulations that foster co-operation towards sustainable and green economic systems within the European Union.