Mr Aidan Araujo (p), Prof. André Chagas

This study estimates the effects of the implementation of free municipal public transportation in São Caetano do Sul (SP) on mode choice among workers and students. The policy was implemented in this municipality in November 2023, during the interview collection phase of the 2023 Origin-Destination Survey. The prediction of mode choice in the absence of free municipal public transportation was made using a discrete choice model based on a multinomial logit approach, estimated solely on trips not affected by the policy. Results indicate that the share of trips made by public transportation increased by 22%, with a decline in the shares of car and
motorcycle trips. The groups that began using public transportation the most are people with below-average incomes, non-residents of São Caetano do Sul, non-white people, and those under 40 years of age. The price elasticity of demand for public transportation is the highest in absolute
value compared to other modes, as is the time elasticity of demand. The welfare gain from consumer surplus resulting from the policy was estimated at R$49.7 million, of which R$25.6 million came from people who already used São Caetano’s municipal buses, R$20 million from those who used intercity buses for trips within the municipality, and R$4.1 million from new users.

Dr. Yadira Gomez-Hernandez (p), Gonzalo Nunez-Chaim, Prof Henry Overman

This paper evaluates the economic impacts of local public transport schemes - small additions to the transport network - focusing on effects on the number of businesses, employment, turnover, productivity, and house prices. Using granular data from 1997 to 2019 and quasi experimental methods, we provide new evidence on the local economic consequences of these interventions. Our preliminary results show that although the number of businesses increases, there is no effect on total employment, and we observe a negative effect in median turnover and a small reduction in median employment. These patterns are consistent with a shift in the composition of firms: the number of micro businesses (fewer than 10 employees) rises, and because such firms typically generate lower turnover, this helps explain the observed declines in other outcomes. The impacts also appear highly localised, with no evidence of effects beyond 0.5 km. In the next stage of the analysis, we will explore these mechanisms in more detail and examine whether impacts differ by type of transport scheme (trams, buses, and accessibility projects).