Mr Federico Bartalucci (p), Prof Maria Abreu, Prof. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose

The green transition is reshaping regional development trajectories, yet existing approaches to measuring vulnerability focus narrowly on industrial exposure—systematically mischaracterising regional risk by treating territories as passive recipients of decarbonisation pressures rather than as differentiated systems with varying capacities to absorb and respond to structural change. This paper develops the Regional Green Transition Vulnerability Index (RGT-VI), a multidimensional framework grounded in the interactionist logic of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's vulnerability architecture: exposure identifies which regions face structural pressure from decarbonisation; sensitivity determines how severely that pressure translates into socio-economic strain; and adaptive capacity governs whether regions can adjust in ways that mitigate harm or capture emerging opportunities. Applied to European NUTS-2 regions, the index reveals distinct spatial patterns of vulnerability. A negative correlation between sensitivity and adaptive capacity reveals a "double burden" concentrated in Eastern and Southern Europe: regions most susceptible to socio-economic strain are simultaneously those least equipped to absorb and respond to it. Meanwhile, a metropolitan effect emerges across all three pillars, with capital cities and major urban centres displaying systematically lower vulnerability than surrounding territories. Cluster analysis identifies five vulnerability archetypes—each reflecting a distinct pillar combination—that illustrate why uniform transition policies may be poorly suited to the diversity of regional challenges. By capturing the full causal chain from transition pressure to adjustment potential, the RGT-VI enables ex-ante identification of at-risk regions before vulnerabilities crystallise into entrenched distress—creating space for preventive, place-sensitive intervention rather than reactive remediation.

Dra. Ana Paula Paulino Da Costa (p), Dra. Fernanda Gabriela Borger

The transition toward a cleaner and more sustainable future requires far more than incremental technological adjustments; it demands a profound rethinking of economic activities and the reorganization of societies upon new, sustainable foundations. In this context, the formulation of coherent public policies and territorially sensitive development strategies becomes central to achieving regional sustainability. Transforming local and regional economies is not limited to the diffusion of greener products or the expansion of clean energy sources. Rather, it entails confronting conflicting intersectoral interests, cognitive misalignments among stakeholders, insufficient or misdirected investments, institutional fragmentation, and entrenched power disputes that shape regional development trajectories.
This paper analyzes the Climate Plan (Plano Clima) as a strategy for the energy transition toward a low-carbon economy, focusing on the impacts and challenges in the coal-mining regions of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. Based on a comparative case study that combines document analysis, economic and environmental series, the study investigates the institutional capacities, governance arrangements, and socioeconomic barriers that hinder the implementation of decarbonization policies. The results indicate that, although the Climate Plan offers relevant technical guidelines and goals aligned with emission reductions, its effectiveness is limited by insufficient multiscale coordination, targeted funding, and productive reconversion strategies appropriate to regional specificities. The historical dependence on coal accentuates vulnerabilities in employment and income, requiring social protection policies, professional retraining, and incentives for economic diversification. A set of integrated measures is proposed — regional transition funds, participatory governance committees, retraining programs linked to green job creation goals, and monitoring instruments — to enable a just and territorially sensitive transition. The study contributes to the debate on how to articulate innovation, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability in contexts of economic restructuring.