G02-1 Regional Growth Models, Competitiveness, and Convergence in a Polycrisis Context
Tracks
Track 2
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 |
| 11:00 - 13:00 |
| Auditorium 45 - Central corpus - Faculty of Pedagogy |
Details
Chair: Ugo Fratesi
The discussant for each presentation is the presenter of the next paper in the session. The first presenter is the discussant of the last paper.
Speaker
Prof. Andrzej Cieślik
Full Professor
University Of Warsaw
Per capita Income Convergence in Central Europe: Does the 2004 Accession to the European Union matter?
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Prof. Andrzej Cieślik (p), Dr Tomasz Misiak
Abstract
The regional per capita income convergence constitutes not only an important economic but also political and social problem. In the economic literature various theoretical and empirical approaches to studying the effects of European economic integration on regional growth and income convergence can be identified. However, these approached often yield controversial results. The main objective of this paper is to study regional per capita income convergence in Central Europe from 1993 to 2024 using an innovative approach proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007). We divide the study period into two sub-periods: 1993-2004 and 2005-2024, which allows us to compare income convergence before and after accession to the European Union. Our study uses data at different NUTS levels ranging from NUTS1 to NUTS3. Our results show that the hypothesis of income convergence between all regions of Central Europe is rejected at each NUTS level for both the pre- and post-accession periods. At the same time our results indicate the existence of different convergence clubs between regions of Central Europe. In particular, the number of convergence clubs depends on both the NUTS level used and the period of the study. The number of convergence clubs increases with the level of spatial data aggregation. Moreover, our results show that after joining the European Union, the number of identified convergence clubs at each NUTS level is lower than before joining the European Union. Therefore, our results suggest growing per capital income cohesion within Central Europe and effectiveness of the EU cohesion policy.
Prof. Ugo Fratesi
Full Professor
Politecnico di Milano
The role of economic trends, institutional changes and macroeconomic policies in agglomeration and disparities: A multi-scale analysis
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Prof. Hasan Engin Duran, Prof. Ugo Fratesi (p)
Abstract
The issue of the spatial concentration of economic activities has predominantly been addressed in recent literature through two principal lenses. The first concerns the efficiency or inefficiency of concentrated locations, particularly large cities, in generating income and growth.
The second focuses on the evolution of disparities between places, which in recent years have been characterised predominantly by divergence, due to agglomerations and large cities expanding and attracting activities to the detriment of weaker regions and towns.
The consequences of these processes have also been studied, and have been identified in growing discontent, especially in places that don’t matter and regions in development traps, with disparities increasing their relevance as a political issue, for example, in the European Union.
The processes of agglomeration, however, need to be studied at different scales simultaneously in order to be properly understood, since distinct processes can characterise the concentration of economic activities at the regional scale within countries and at the urban scale within regions.
Furthermore, the processes of concentration and dispersion, as well as the increase and decrease of disparities, cannot be assumed to be uniform; rather, they are clearly affected by technological trends, institutional changes, and policy developments.
In this conceptual context, the present paper investigates the determinants of economic disparities in the long run, considering both the regional and sub-regional scales. To this end, a panel database is constructed for all EU countries, comprising data on disparities at the NUTS2 level and at the NUTS3 level within NUTS2 of each country, taking advantage of Theil decompositions.
Subsequently, the evolution of disparities inside countries, at both regional and urban scales, is examined through econometric analysis to determine the extent to which it is influenced by exogenous trends, institutional changes, and national policies, both with direct spatial objectives and of pure macroeconomic nature.
The findings of this paper will provide policy guidance to the extent that they demonstrate that disparities do not solely depend on regional aspects, but are also influenced by macroeconomic determinants and policies. Furthermore, understanding which macroeconomic policies favour rich regions or cities will assist in identifying when such macro interventions should be accompanied by measures to counterbalance their centripetal effects at the relevant (regional or urban) scale.
The second focuses on the evolution of disparities between places, which in recent years have been characterised predominantly by divergence, due to agglomerations and large cities expanding and attracting activities to the detriment of weaker regions and towns.
The consequences of these processes have also been studied, and have been identified in growing discontent, especially in places that don’t matter and regions in development traps, with disparities increasing their relevance as a political issue, for example, in the European Union.
The processes of agglomeration, however, need to be studied at different scales simultaneously in order to be properly understood, since distinct processes can characterise the concentration of economic activities at the regional scale within countries and at the urban scale within regions.
Furthermore, the processes of concentration and dispersion, as well as the increase and decrease of disparities, cannot be assumed to be uniform; rather, they are clearly affected by technological trends, institutional changes, and policy developments.
In this conceptual context, the present paper investigates the determinants of economic disparities in the long run, considering both the regional and sub-regional scales. To this end, a panel database is constructed for all EU countries, comprising data on disparities at the NUTS2 level and at the NUTS3 level within NUTS2 of each country, taking advantage of Theil decompositions.
Subsequently, the evolution of disparities inside countries, at both regional and urban scales, is examined through econometric analysis to determine the extent to which it is influenced by exogenous trends, institutional changes, and national policies, both with direct spatial objectives and of pure macroeconomic nature.
The findings of this paper will provide policy guidance to the extent that they demonstrate that disparities do not solely depend on regional aspects, but are also influenced by macroeconomic determinants and policies. Furthermore, understanding which macroeconomic policies favour rich regions or cities will assist in identifying when such macro interventions should be accompanied by measures to counterbalance their centripetal effects at the relevant (regional or urban) scale.
Dr. György Vida
Assistant Professor
University of Szeged - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration
The portrait of the regional development traps in Central and Eastern Europe
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Dr. György Vida (p), Dr. habil. Izabella Szakálné Kanó
Abstract
Global economic development is increasingly shaped by the structural tensions between economic integration, national sovereignty, and democratic accountability, as conceptualized by Rodrik’s trilemma (Rodrik 2000, 2011). These tensions are spatially uneven in their consequences, contributing to widening regional disparities across Europe. While some regions have successfully embedded themselves into global production networks, others face persistent stagnation or decline. Traditional core–periphery models provide important insights into structural disadvantages (Iammarino et al. 2019); however, the concept of the regional development trap (European Commission 2020; Diemer et al. 2022) offers a more dynamic and process-oriented framework to explain why certain middle-income regions struggle to sustain productivity growth and structural upgrading despite economic integration.
Although regional development traps and spatial inequalities have been analysed at the European scale, predominantly through an aggregate EU-wide lens, the recent macroeconomic convergence of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries conceals significant and persistent intra-national disparities (Gál & Lux 2022; Vas et al. 2024). National-level catch-up trajectories obscure heterogeneous development paths at lower territorial scales. Beneath aggregate growth figures, many subnational regions remain locked in low-productivity, low-innovation equilibria.
This presentation therefore shifts the analytical focus to the NUTS3 level and addresses the following research question: What types of regional development traps exist in Central and Eastern Europe at the NUTS3 scale? By moving beyond conventional benchmarking against the EU average, we develop a modified regional development trap index tailored to the specific structural and historical conditions of CEE economies. This approach enables a more accurate identification of territorially embedded stagnation patterns.
Our findings suggest that the CEE development trap is rooted in the historical legacies of post-socialist transformation, uneven sectoral restructuring, and strong dependence on foreign direct investment. These factors have produced asymmetric spatial development structures, where globally integrated metropolitan cores coexist with structurally vulnerable rural and old industrial regions. The latter are characterized by labour market polarization, limited human capital accumulation, weak innovation ecosystems, and restricted social mobility. Consequently, despite the overall national and relative convergence to the core Europe, numerous NUTS3 regions continue to experience low productivity growth, modest employment expansion, fragile economic diversification, and in some cases deepening internal income inequalities.
By refining the development trap concept at a finer territorial scale, this analysis contributes to a more differentiated understanding of structural stagnation in middle-income European economies and underscores the importance of spatially sensitive, place-based policy interventions capable of breaking self-reinforcing cycles of regional divergence.
Although regional development traps and spatial inequalities have been analysed at the European scale, predominantly through an aggregate EU-wide lens, the recent macroeconomic convergence of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries conceals significant and persistent intra-national disparities (Gál & Lux 2022; Vas et al. 2024). National-level catch-up trajectories obscure heterogeneous development paths at lower territorial scales. Beneath aggregate growth figures, many subnational regions remain locked in low-productivity, low-innovation equilibria.
This presentation therefore shifts the analytical focus to the NUTS3 level and addresses the following research question: What types of regional development traps exist in Central and Eastern Europe at the NUTS3 scale? By moving beyond conventional benchmarking against the EU average, we develop a modified regional development trap index tailored to the specific structural and historical conditions of CEE economies. This approach enables a more accurate identification of territorially embedded stagnation patterns.
Our findings suggest that the CEE development trap is rooted in the historical legacies of post-socialist transformation, uneven sectoral restructuring, and strong dependence on foreign direct investment. These factors have produced asymmetric spatial development structures, where globally integrated metropolitan cores coexist with structurally vulnerable rural and old industrial regions. The latter are characterized by labour market polarization, limited human capital accumulation, weak innovation ecosystems, and restricted social mobility. Consequently, despite the overall national and relative convergence to the core Europe, numerous NUTS3 regions continue to experience low productivity growth, modest employment expansion, fragile economic diversification, and in some cases deepening internal income inequalities.
By refining the development trap concept at a finer territorial scale, this analysis contributes to a more differentiated understanding of structural stagnation in middle-income European economies and underscores the importance of spatially sensitive, place-based policy interventions capable of breaking self-reinforcing cycles of regional divergence.
Dr. Dávid Bilicz
Assistant Professor
University Of Pécs
Geographical Core-Periphery and Network Convergence: Which European Regions Converge Most in European Knowledge Networks?
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Dr. Dávid Bilicz (p)
Abstract
European integration and the expansion of cross-border R&D programs raise a network-theoretic question: are European regions converging in their positions within interregional knowledge networks, or does a persistent hierarchy endure? This study tests beta-convergence in regional network embeddedness using a multiplex representation of interregional knowledge ties, motivated by evidence that European collaboration networks exhibit strong core-periphery stratification and preferential-attachment dynamics that can limit catch-up for peripheral regions. Rather than evaluating integration through aggregate growth in participation, convergence is assessed as changes in relative network position and shifts in the concentration of network advantages over time.
A multiplex interregional network is constructed from three complementary relational layers, namely co-patenting, EU Framework Programme project collaboration, and scientific co-authorship. The network layers are aggregated consistently to the regional scale and combined under a uniform weighting logic to reduce single-layer bias. Convergence is estimated with cross-sectional OLS beta-convergence regressions linking the change in regional network position between 2001-2003 and 2017-2019 (multi-year averages) to the initial level of network position. Two outcomes capture distinct aspects of embeddedness: degree-based centrality (to measure connectedness) and alpha-coreness (classical core-periphery position measure ona continuous scale). The baseline models are then extended by incorporating geographical core-periphery topologies directly into the regressions: (i) an urban-rural settlement approach and (ii) a pre-/post-2000 EU-accession divide (old vs new member states), alongside continuous proxies for socio-economic development.
Results indicate statistically significant but substantively modest beta-convergence in both centrality and coreness: initially peripheral regions improve slightly more than initially central regions, yet the overall hierarchy remains sticky. Introducing geographical topologies reveals that convergence is not spatially neutral. Urban regions exhibit significantly stronger upgrading than rural regions, and the accession divide matters particularly for alpha-coreness, where post-2000 regions show larger gains. Joint specifications suggest that catch-up is concentrated among eastern urban (and partly intermediate) regions, while western rural regions display the weakest upgrading. These findings imply that policies targeting “network convergence” should prioritize connectivity- and role-upgrading instruments for peripheral and rural regions, and evaluate success using network-position outcomes alongside conventional innovation indicators.
A multiplex interregional network is constructed from three complementary relational layers, namely co-patenting, EU Framework Programme project collaboration, and scientific co-authorship. The network layers are aggregated consistently to the regional scale and combined under a uniform weighting logic to reduce single-layer bias. Convergence is estimated with cross-sectional OLS beta-convergence regressions linking the change in regional network position between 2001-2003 and 2017-2019 (multi-year averages) to the initial level of network position. Two outcomes capture distinct aspects of embeddedness: degree-based centrality (to measure connectedness) and alpha-coreness (classical core-periphery position measure ona continuous scale). The baseline models are then extended by incorporating geographical core-periphery topologies directly into the regressions: (i) an urban-rural settlement approach and (ii) a pre-/post-2000 EU-accession divide (old vs new member states), alongside continuous proxies for socio-economic development.
Results indicate statistically significant but substantively modest beta-convergence in both centrality and coreness: initially peripheral regions improve slightly more than initially central regions, yet the overall hierarchy remains sticky. Introducing geographical topologies reveals that convergence is not spatially neutral. Urban regions exhibit significantly stronger upgrading than rural regions, and the accession divide matters particularly for alpha-coreness, where post-2000 regions show larger gains. Joint specifications suggest that catch-up is concentrated among eastern urban (and partly intermediate) regions, while western rural regions display the weakest upgrading. These findings imply that policies targeting “network convergence” should prioritize connectivity- and role-upgrading instruments for peripheral and rural regions, and evaluate success using network-position outcomes alongside conventional innovation indicators.