Dr. Mehdi Zarehparast Malekzadeh (p), Mr. Aditya Kapoor, Dr. Gemma Dolores Molero, Ms. Bojana Bjegojevic, Mr. Ilgiz Nurlanov, Ms. Oriana Salomón, Dr. Maria Sangiuliano, Dr. Francisco Enrique Santarremigia

This paper outlines a framework for identifying and prioritizing hazards linked to the green and digital transitions by integrating harmonized surveys with Bayesian-network modeling. Following the FITTER-EU project guidelines, we utilize translated questionnaires across six countries to assess the likelihood and severity of 26 hazards in three sectors: Energy, Housing, and Transport. Our methodology incorporates EU-SILC-inspired socio-demographic stratification to generate indices for disadvantaged groups (DGs). The analysis involves three stages: predicting hazards using Naïve Bayes and regression, conducting ANOVA for socio-demographic patterns, and employing Bayesian Networks to model dependencies and assess policy effectiveness. Our approach innovatively combines participatory data collection with explainable AI to foster anticipatory governance for an inclusive transition. Future developments aim for scalability, technical integration with the FITTER platform, and external validation for effective policy implementation.

Dr. Sara Clavero (p)

The European twin transition is widely framed as both an economic opportunity and a sustainability imperative. Yet without deliberate intervention, transition policies risk reproducing or deepening structural inequalities, particularly in essential systems such as energy, housing, and transport. This paper presents the methodological framework developed within the FITTER-EU project to systematically embed social justice into twin transition research and policymaking. It advances an integrated approach combining systems inquiry, risk assessment, and impact assessment within a human rights-based framework.
The paper has two objectives. First, it introduces a structured methodology for embedding distributive, recognitive, and participatory justice into climate and digital transition policies. Second, it demonstrates how systems inquiry enables policymakers to move beyond mitigating harms toward redesigning the structures that generate ecological overshoot and social inequality.
The contribution lies in operationalising justice within complex socio-technical systems. Rather than treating fairness as an ex-post consideration, the FITTER methodology integrates human rights principles, climate justice, and systems redesign into policy appraisal. This provides a practical toolset for anticipatory governance amid accelerating climate risks and uneven digitalisation.
Conceptually, the framework is grounded in a human rights-based approach, drawing on international and European legal standards to anchor policies in universality, non-discrimination, participation, and accountability. Justice is situated within a systems trilemma linking ecological limits, socio-economic reproduction, and political structures. Business-as-usual pathways are incompatible with climate targets and equity, requiring systemic transformation rather than incremental optimisation.
Methodologically, three components are combined: (1) systems inquiry, (2) risk assessment, and (3) impact assessment. Systems inquiry unfolds in three stages: challenging dominant paradigms, analysing system dynamics, and identifying high-leverage interventions, using tools such as causal loop diagrams and leverage point analysis. Risk assessment evaluates adverse impacts on disadvantaged groups, extending conventional analysis to structural drivers of inequality. Impact assessment examines distributional, gendered, and intersectional effects to ensure equitable sharing of benefits and burdens.
The framework is applied to case studies across six European countries in renewable energy, electric mobility, and climate-resilient housing. Findings reveal common structural dynamics. Decarbonisation without redistributive design can intensify energy poverty; housing financialisation undermines affordability; and transport policies centred on private electric vehicles risk reinforcing car dependency. Across sectors, technological substitution alone addresses symptoms rather than root causes. High-leverage interventions reshape incentives, rules, and power relations.
The twin transition is not inherently just. Integrating systems inquiry with rights-based risk and impact assessment is analytically necessary to achieve a fair and sustainable transition in Europe.

Mr. Aditya Kapoor, Dr. Mehdi Zarehparast Malekzadeh (p), Dr. Gemma Dolores Molero, Dr. Maria Chiara Leva, Mr. Tom Flynn, Dr. Francisco Enrique Santarremigia

The European policy discourse increasingly recognises the need to embed eco-social justice within the governance of sustainability transitions. However, translating justice principles into operational policy reasoning remains difficult. Policymakers must assess multi-dimensional impacts across economic, social, environmental, and fundamental rights domains, while navigating uncertainty, institutional constraints, and competing interests. This paper presents a pedagogical framework from the FITTER-EU project that harnesses conversational probing—an interactive process where a large language model (LLM) iteratively questions and refines a policymaker’s reasoning about specific policies. Applied to Energy, Transport, and Housing sector across six European countries (Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Germany, Italy, Hungary), the framework is enabled by an AI / LLM powered FITTER Digital Platform for structured impact evaluation and mitigation co-development. Early implementation shows that conversational probing enhances systemic awareness, surfaces intersectional blind spots, and fosters more nuanced, equity-sensitive policy reasoning.

Mr. Ioannis Charalampidis (p), Mr. Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Dr. Srishti Goyal

The transition toward carbon neutrality presents both challenges and opportunities for European industries. The expansion of clean fuels, the uptake of climate-friendly production technologies, improvements in energy efficiency across residential and commercial buildings, and the electrification of transport are fostering the emergence of new markets for goods and services. At the same time, increasing international competition—particularly from China—underscores the need for a policy framework that combines targeted incentives with protective measures to support the competitiveness of European industries. Recent EU initiatives, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the Clean Industrial Act, aim to provide such a framework. Using the GEM-E3-R computable general equilibrium model, this study evaluates the impacts of the latest EU policy packages on the performance of key industrial sectors at both the national and NUTS2 regional levels.