Dr. Matthew Lyons (p)

In recent years volatility in the trade policy of the United States Government has led to greater cause for the evaluation of the exposure of regions to trade disruptions. In 2026, the United States proposed a 10 then 15 per cent global tariff on imports to the country. This paper investigates the exposure of Australian states and territories to United States import tariffs based on trade, price elasticities and supply chain data.
This paper presents AusRIO a newly development multi-regional input-output model for Australia. The model is constructed through a CHARM-based regionalisation of the 2022-23 national input-output tables published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics The paper details the methodological steps taken to construct the AusRIO MRIO system including the interstate trade linkages. Preliminary findings on the impact of tariffs on Agricultural exports find that the tariff shock generates an estimated $2.3 billion reduction in national output and approximately 2,790 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs lost across Australia. The impacts are unevenly distributed across states, reflecting differences in export composition and supply-chain exposure. Queensland experiences the largest output decline (approximately $645 million and 770 FTE jobs), followed by Victoria ($781 million and 950 FTE jobs) and New South Wales ($555 million and 610 FTE jobs).

Dr. Andrea Diaz Rincon (p), Aurelien Genty, Juan Carlos Ruiz-Garcia, Wouter Vergote

This paper presents a new methodology for disaggregating input‑output (IO) tables to uncover hidden heterogeneity in industry structures, trade patterns, and supply‑chain dependencies. Conventional IO tables aggregate sectors at a high level, masking critical differences among sub‑industries. Our three‑step approach (i) compiles high‑granularity production and trade data for disaggregated sectors, (ii) estimates and balances IO flows through econometric techniques, and (iii) validates the resulting tables against established industry benchmarks. The framework is illustrated with a case study of the European Union automotive sector, which we split into electric vehicles (EVs), internal‑combustion‑engine vehicles (ICEs), and vehicle‑parts manufacturing. Results show that foreign‑input dependence differs markedly across vehicle segments: EVs exhibit a 29 % foreign share, compared with 13 % for ICEs. Further decomposition attributes 80 % of this gap to global value‑chain strategies and 20 % to technology gaps. Regional extensions reveal substantial heterogeneity across EU economies in their reliance on the Single Market versus non‑EU partners. The study underscores the policy relevance of fine‑grained IO analysis for enhancing competitiveness, supply‑chain resilience, and targeted industrial strategy. The proposed methodology is flexible and can be transferred to other sectors, offering researchers and stakeholders a robust tool for detailed economic and trade assessments.

Dylan Jong, Steven Craig (p)

This paper empirically estimates the fiscal response of local governments to a manufacturing boom. Some central governments, including the US, are pursuing policies to re-shore manufacturing from abroad. One of the potential effects that has not factored into the calculus of this policy choice is the impact on local governments. We use the oil fracking boom in Texas to specifically identify how local governments in a developed country respond to both the burden, and opportunity, of this potentially major change in their local fiscal environment. Specifically, we use difference in differences estimation to identify impacts for both local general purpose governments, as well as local single purpose school districts, and argue we expect these two types of local governments to significantly differ in how they are affected. In particular, general purpose cities are found to have enlarged revenues, but much of the larger revenues are absorbed at least in the short run by the burden from creating new infrastructure. Conversely, school districts only have the fiscal burden of an increase in school attendance from the small permanent workforce, while benefitting from the larger long run change in the tax base. The results emphasize the heterogenous effects on local governments, none of which are small