Volker Nitsch (p)

Following the disputed December 2007 presidential election and the announcement of Mwai Kibaki as the winner, Kenya experienced widespread violence that quickly evolved into ethnic conflict, particularly in the Rift Valley Province. This paper analyzes the consequences of this episode for Kenya’s external trade using transaction-level customs data from the Kenya Revenue Authority. The daily frequency and geographic detail of the data enable precise identification of short-run disruptions and regional heterogeneity. Results show significant but
uneven declines in trade flows, with effects concentrated in conflict-affected areas and largely dissipating after the peace agreement.

Prof. Simona Iammarino (p), Mr. Sebastiano Comotti, Prof. Riccardo Crescenzi

With a highly skewed distribution of population and resources, 54 countries, and truly diverse geographies, histories, and socio-economic, political and environmental challenges, the African continent displays huge disparities at the subnational/regional level (e.g., Boone & Simson, 2019; Iddawela et al., 2021). The regional/local dimension is crucial for understanding socio-economic, demographic and environmental development trajectories, particularly with reference to the rich endowments of natural resources of African regions, the potential opportunities provided by the green transition, and the implications of the geography of the continent for policies and strategies related to the Sustainable Development Goals (e.g., Smith & Rey, 2018; OECD, 2025). Yet, the lack of systematic and reliable data at the subnational level makes it difficult to study the relationships between different sources of structural change both in absolute and comparative terms (Nel, 2018; Boone & Simson, 2019; Luken et al., 2020).
Over the last two decades African economies have become increasingly attractive destinations for foreign investors seeking old and new resources and emerging markets. Particularly natural resource sectors (together with industries with high returns to investments, i.e., real estate and telecommunications) have experienced a surge in inward FDI flows (e.g., Qiang et al., 2021; UNCTAD, 2023; World Bank, 2024). This paper explores the geography of FDI in African subnational regions/cities by using data from fDiMarkets, the Financial Times database tracking global greenfield investments from 2003 to 2023. The study analyses inward and outward FDI in/from Africa (including intra-continent) at the subnational level to better grasp the emerging trends in the geography of FDI across the “Africa of regions”, with a special focus on Natural Resources – i.e. Coal, oil & natural gas, Metals & minerals – and Alternative/Renewable energy. To add a preliminary description of interregional linkages, network analysis techniques from the world city network literature (e.g., Alderson & Beckfield, 2004) are applied to identify the centrality, dominance, and connectivity patterns among African and world cities and regions.

Prof. Laura Resmini (p), Dr Luca Bettarelli, Dr Vieri Calogero, Dr Pietro Pizzuto

In a context of rising uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, global production networks (GPNs) are undergoing profound spatial reconfigurations, driven by firms’ adaptive strategies and heterogeneous territorial responses. While a growing body of micro-level evidence documents how firms respond to global uncertainty and geopolitical shocks, systematic evidence on country-specific uncertainty as a driver of GPN reconfiguration remains scarce. Existing contributions focus on specific local shocks in given countries, rather than providing general evidence on whether and how home uncertainty affects the geography of GPN reorganization. This paper contributes to filling this gap by examining how domestic uncertainty shocks reshape European GPNs by altering the spatial structure of corporate networks.
We address three research questions: How does domestic uncertainty affect the geography of GPNs in European regions? How and to what extent do these reconfigurations emerge across different spatial scales (intra-national vs. transnational) and in relation to different firm strategies and sectors? Which regional characteristics mediate the impact of uncertainty on the reconfiguration of GPNs?
Empirically, we use firm-level information from the ORBIS database to identify Global Ultimate Owners (GUOs), distinguish between domestic and foreign multinational groups, and examine their networks of subsidiaries abroad. We build two complementary bipartite networks: an outward network linking European regions to the domestic and foreign locations where region-based firms own affiliates, and an inward network linking domestic and foreign GUOs to the European regions where their affiliates are located. From these structures, we derive weighted measures of inward and outward degree centrality capturing changes in the size and spatial reach of GPNs over time.
We combine these network measures with a macroeconomic uncertainty indicator to estimate the dynamic effects of country-specific uncertainty shocks, controlling for global uncertainty, using a local projections framework that distinguishes short-run adjustments from medium-run responses.
We find that domestic shocks significantly reduce network size and the number of regions involved. This pattern reflects two complementary mechanisms: domestic multinationals respond to domestic uncertainty by contracting their international footprint and reconcentrating production at home, while foreign multinationals retrench by withdrawing affiliates from shock-hit regions, generating inward network contraction. Substantial heterogeneity across firms’ strategies, sectors, and regional characteristics does exist. Overall, the paper provides new evidence on country-specific uncertainty as a key driver of spatially uneven GPN reconfigurations in Europe, highlighting the multi-scalar nature of firm adaptation and the role of regional positioning within global value chains in shaping network resilience.

Ms Fulvia Zunino (p), Mr Salvatore Cominu, Dr Santino Piazza

This paper builds on a research project carried out by Ires Piemonte, the Regional Institute for Economic and Social Research of Piedmont (Italy), focusing on the automotive components industry in a context of technological transition and the downsizing of the local original equipment manufacturer (OEM), historically represented by FIAT and now part of the Stellantis group. Using a mixed qualitative-quantitative approach, the study analyses firms controlled by multinational groups (multinational enterprises, MNEs) located in Piedmont and in other major automotive regions of Northern Italy - Lombardia, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto - areas that historically concentrate a large share of Italy’s automotive manufacturing capacity.
Over the past decades, the reorganisation of the automotive industry has reshaped production geographies along a core-periphery pattern, characterised by the international fragmentation of value chains. The empirical evidence points to a gradual shift of Italy, and of the Turin automotive cluster in particular, towards a “semi-peripheral” position: automotive production remains significant, but in the absence of national OEMs. As a result, territories increasingly compete with low-cost countries for the attraction of manufacturing activities and with core economies for higher value-added functions, such as R&D and advanced services.
The aim of the paper is to provide policy evidence for regional investment attraction strategies by assessing the advantages and constraints associated with the high presence of foreign-controlled MNEs in a mature cluster such as the Piedmont one. Analyses are conducted using firm-level balance-sheet data and a CRE-Mundlak panel model, comparing the performance of foreign MNEs with Italian MNEs and independent domestic groups. Estimates seem to highlight no overall “premium” for MNE, but results have to be interpreted at the regional level.
Nevertheless, MNEs remain key actors for the technological upgrading and skill reconversion of the cluster, given their investment capacity and their position within global value chains. From a policy perspective, this suggest the crucial issue is not the mere presence of multinational-controlled firms, but the quality and long-term commitment of their regional investments. The concluding stage of our research develops an analytical framework on the “disengagement risk” of foreign MNEs, based on a series of case studies. While this aspect will not constitute the main focus of this presentation, it represents our broader research trajectory and offers a structured approach to assessing firms’ territorial embeddedness and its implications for regional industrial policy.

Prof. Luigi Benfratello (p), Guangchao Wang

This paper provides the first comprehensive regional and sectoral mapping of Chinesecontrolled enterprises in Italy. Existing research on Chinese investment in Italy primarily focuses on individual M&A cases, specific manufacturing sectors, or ethnographic evidence from industrial areas such as Prato, lacking nationally representative micro
evidence to reveal the distribution of Chinese enterprises in Italy’s economic geography and how they differ from the distribution of other foreign investors. We construct a
complete census of 17,369 Chinese controlled enterprises, comparing their location and sector profiles with all foreign invested enterprises operating in Italy. To quantify relative
specialization, we compute the Balassa index for sector and regional analysis, extending the analysis to a combined sector-regional dimension.
The findings reveal a highly asymmetric pattern in Chinese direct investment in Italy.
Chinese investors are concentrated in a few regions in central and northern Italy, particularly Tuscany, Lombardy, and Veneto, while significantly fewer are found in the South
and surrounding areas. At the sectoral level, Chinese investors are highly concentrated in
labor intensive manufacturing and consumer oriented services, including textiles, clothing, leather, wholesale and retail trade, and accommodation and catering services. In
contrast, their investments in construction, transportation, finance, advanced manufacturing, and high-tech sectors are relatively smaller, areas where foreign investors are
typically more active.
In summary, these findings suggest that Chinese investment in Italy does not conform to
the average pattern of foreign investors, but rather occupies a unique market space influenced by industrial clusters, immigrant entrepreneur networks, and localized production
systems.