G11-2 Public Policy Assessment in the Transition Era: Inclusiveness, Poverty Alleviation, Equal Opportunities and Territorial Justice
Tracks
Track 2
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 |
| 15:00 - 17:00 |
| Auditorium 64 - South Building - Faculty of Pedagogy |
Details
Chair: İsrafil Boyaci
The discussant for each presentation is the presenter of the next paper in the session. The first presenter is the discussant of the last paper.
Speaker
Prof. Shin-Kun Peng
Full Professor
Academia Sinica
The Welfare Analysis of the Distribution Effect on Carbon Taxation
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Prof. Shin-kun Peng (p)
Abstract
In general, the manufacturing firms produce the goods, they will emerge the carbon emission, which in turn induce the negative externality on the household in the neighborhood community. And in order to compensate the households' negative externality, the government usually either needs to provide some clean- air infrastructures or green facilities such as parks to households in terms of a local public goods which in general have a positive externality to benefit residents and then smooth the negative externality from carbon emissions, or using the taxation revenue to subsidy the households as an income transfer, thus the local government has the authority to levy the carbon pollution tax on the firms based on the amount of firms' emission, and also the government want to determine how to employ optimal fiscal policy on the using pollution taxation revenue.
In this paper, we complement the literature by focusing on the examination and analysis the optimal tax rate as well as the optimal allocation schemes of the carbon taxation revenue with respects to the household welfare within a theoretical framework. We discuss three alternative schemes of fiscal policies associated with carbon taxation, respectively. First, if the share of taxation revenue to finance the local public goods is exogenously given by a specific political policy consideration, the optimal tax rate is increasing in pollution externality, but decreasing in either in the consumption weight of the aggregate manufacturing good or local public good. Second, we determine the optimal distribution share of the taxation revenue to finance the local public goods when the carbon tax rate is given by the government with a specific political policy consideration. It is shown that the optimal distribution share is decreasing in the share of carbon emissions in the production process of manufacturing goods. Finally, we examine the more general scheme when both the share and tax rate endogenous determining by the government simultaneously. It documents that the optimal tax rate is independent of the share of carbon emissions in the production process, and is increasing in the negative externality of pollution and the elasticity of consumption manufacturing goods, and decreasing in the weight of public good consumption. As the optimal distribution share is decreasing either in weight or elasticity of consumption manufacturing goods, or the share of carbon emissions in the production process of manufacturing goods.
In this paper, we complement the literature by focusing on the examination and analysis the optimal tax rate as well as the optimal allocation schemes of the carbon taxation revenue with respects to the household welfare within a theoretical framework. We discuss three alternative schemes of fiscal policies associated with carbon taxation, respectively. First, if the share of taxation revenue to finance the local public goods is exogenously given by a specific political policy consideration, the optimal tax rate is increasing in pollution externality, but decreasing in either in the consumption weight of the aggregate manufacturing good or local public good. Second, we determine the optimal distribution share of the taxation revenue to finance the local public goods when the carbon tax rate is given by the government with a specific political policy consideration. It is shown that the optimal distribution share is decreasing in the share of carbon emissions in the production process of manufacturing goods. Finally, we examine the more general scheme when both the share and tax rate endogenous determining by the government simultaneously. It documents that the optimal tax rate is independent of the share of carbon emissions in the production process, and is increasing in the negative externality of pollution and the elasticity of consumption manufacturing goods, and decreasing in the weight of public good consumption. As the optimal distribution share is decreasing either in weight or elasticity of consumption manufacturing goods, or the share of carbon emissions in the production process of manufacturing goods.
Ms Jiayi Wang
Ph.D. Student
University Of Manchester
Territorial Justice in the Coal Transition: Spatial Spillovers in Medicaid Pressure Across Appalachia
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Ms Jiayi Wang (p), Ms Saiqing Guan
Abstract
The coal-to-clean transition in the United States has generated geographically concentrated adjustment costs that challenge the inclusiveness of decarbonisation policy. Yet empirical evidence on how transition stress translates into spatially uneven pressure on the social safety net—and how far those pressures spill across administrative borders—remains limited. Focusing on Appalachia, a typical “left-behind” coal region, this paper assesses the territorial justice implications of transition-era policy by quantifying the spatial–temporal dynamics of “Medicaid pressure” over 2009–2019. Because a complete county–year Medicaid enrolment series is not available for the full period, we operationalise Medicaid pressure using county poverty rates as an institutionally motivated proxy, capturing the economic foundation of programme reliance.
We construct a county–year panel for all Appalachian counties by integrating coal production, socioeconomic indicators, and air-pollution exposure measures. We first establish that vulnerability is spatially structured, consistent with interdependent labour markets, shared service geographies, and correlated exposure environments. We then estimate spatial panel fixed-effects models under a Queen-contiguity weights matrix and select a Spatial Durbin specification to identify both endogenous spatial dependence and spillovers from neighbouring counties’ conditions. To link these patterns to a salient decarbonisation policy era, we complement the spatial analysis with a two-way fixed-effects difference-in-differences and event-study design around the 2015 Clean Power Plan, comparing coal-reliant counties (defined by pre-policy coal exposure) with non-coal counties.
Findings indicate that labour-market distress and human-capital endowments are the most robust correlates of rising medicaid pressure, with economically distressed counties also affected by neighbouring counties’ conditions. Environmental burdens appear tightly coupled to regional vulnerability through spillover channels. Coal dependence is not a stable direct predictor once spatial dependence and socioeconomic conditions are modelled, implying that transition exposure is mediated through broader adjustment mechanisms. Policy-era estimates show a post-2015 divergence between coal-reliant and non-coal counties consistent with transition stress, interpreted cautiously given overlapping structural decline and institutional heterogeneity in Medicaid eligibility. Overall, the results argue that territorially just decarbonisation requires multi-county policy design that integrates labour-market support with health and social protection planning, rather than narrowly local interventions that ignore spatial spillovers.
We construct a county–year panel for all Appalachian counties by integrating coal production, socioeconomic indicators, and air-pollution exposure measures. We first establish that vulnerability is spatially structured, consistent with interdependent labour markets, shared service geographies, and correlated exposure environments. We then estimate spatial panel fixed-effects models under a Queen-contiguity weights matrix and select a Spatial Durbin specification to identify both endogenous spatial dependence and spillovers from neighbouring counties’ conditions. To link these patterns to a salient decarbonisation policy era, we complement the spatial analysis with a two-way fixed-effects difference-in-differences and event-study design around the 2015 Clean Power Plan, comparing coal-reliant counties (defined by pre-policy coal exposure) with non-coal counties.
Findings indicate that labour-market distress and human-capital endowments are the most robust correlates of rising medicaid pressure, with economically distressed counties also affected by neighbouring counties’ conditions. Environmental burdens appear tightly coupled to regional vulnerability through spillover channels. Coal dependence is not a stable direct predictor once spatial dependence and socioeconomic conditions are modelled, implying that transition exposure is mediated through broader adjustment mechanisms. Policy-era estimates show a post-2015 divergence between coal-reliant and non-coal counties consistent with transition stress, interpreted cautiously given overlapping structural decline and institutional heterogeneity in Medicaid eligibility. Overall, the results argue that territorially just decarbonisation requires multi-county policy design that integrates labour-market support with health and social protection planning, rather than narrowly local interventions that ignore spatial spillovers.
Dr. Kristiyan Lukanov
Assistant Professor
Sofia University "st. Kliment Ohridski"
Governing the Just Energy Transition in Bulgaria: Stakeholder Perspectives, Institutional Barriers and Regional Implications
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Dr. Kristiyan Lukanov (p)
Abstract
This article examines the governance of the just energy transition in Bulgaria through qualitative interviews with stakeholders from public authorities, business, academia and civil society, including representatives of socially vulnerable minority communities in coal-dependent regions. The findings reveal that policy uncertainty, fragmented governance and limited coordination capacity constrain transition implementation. Evidence also highlights a transition literacy divide and the risk that decarbonisation policies may disproportionately affect low-qualified workers and marginalised communities exposed to energy poverty. The study argues that effective just transition governance in peripheral contexts requires integrated approaches combining industrial restructuring, social inclusion and targeted energy poverty mitigation. By providing new empirical insights from an under-researched EU member state, the article contributes to debates on socially differentiated transition policy design.
Dr. Niccolò Aimo
Senior Researcher
Ires Piemonte
Evaluating Labour Policies for Justice-Involved People. Exploring Key Implementation Factors from a regional policy in Piedmont, Italy
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Dr. Niccolò Aimo (p), Dr. Luigi Nava
Abstract
In the complex transitions interesting modern societies, security, employment, and welfare are among the key themes driving political change and policy reforms. Labour policies targeting justice-involved individuals span across all these themes, aiming to combine inclusiveness and effectiveness in the justice systems.
As per other labour market interventions, these policies are characterized by a strong emphasis on performance measurement and evaluation. The legitimacy of labour market interventions, in fact, strongly depends on their cost-effectiveness, stimulating the policymaker’s demand for clear and actionable evaluation insights.
Against this background, evidence about policies for the general unemployed population has matured a shared consensus over “what works”. However, the same cannot be said about the programmes for more vulnerable target populations, including justice-involved people.
Existent studies report contrasting findings on key outcome indicators such as recidivism, type and quality of post-release employment, and skill development. Complicating this picture, this policy domain poses specific methodological challenges involving availability, collection, and analysis of empirical data, making comparative and systematic large-N studies harder to pursue.
This paper adopts a qualitative case study approach to analyse the implementation of a labour market policy targeting justice-involved individuals. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with implementers, the research explores the central factors characterizing the implementation process.
Engaging with the existing literature, the research inquires three key aspects that are currently underdeveloped in most evaluation studies: a) the coexistence of multiple and sometimes conflicting rationales within the implementation structures; b) heterogeneity within the target population and its implications for service provision; and c) the gap between program participation and effective access to employment.
The findings identify key causal factors influencing implementation dynamics and shed light on how these factors mediate the outcomes of labour policies targeting justice-involved individuals. More broadly, the paper also argues for the importance of an evaluation approach based on methodological pluralism capable of complementing outcome-oriented evaluations with a deeper understanding of the complex social processes that public policies aim to govern. Such reflections have a central importance in societies characterized by complex transitions and an ever-growing demand for policy evaluation.
As per other labour market interventions, these policies are characterized by a strong emphasis on performance measurement and evaluation. The legitimacy of labour market interventions, in fact, strongly depends on their cost-effectiveness, stimulating the policymaker’s demand for clear and actionable evaluation insights.
Against this background, evidence about policies for the general unemployed population has matured a shared consensus over “what works”. However, the same cannot be said about the programmes for more vulnerable target populations, including justice-involved people.
Existent studies report contrasting findings on key outcome indicators such as recidivism, type and quality of post-release employment, and skill development. Complicating this picture, this policy domain poses specific methodological challenges involving availability, collection, and analysis of empirical data, making comparative and systematic large-N studies harder to pursue.
This paper adopts a qualitative case study approach to analyse the implementation of a labour market policy targeting justice-involved individuals. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with implementers, the research explores the central factors characterizing the implementation process.
Engaging with the existing literature, the research inquires three key aspects that are currently underdeveloped in most evaluation studies: a) the coexistence of multiple and sometimes conflicting rationales within the implementation structures; b) heterogeneity within the target population and its implications for service provision; and c) the gap between program participation and effective access to employment.
The findings identify key causal factors influencing implementation dynamics and shed light on how these factors mediate the outcomes of labour policies targeting justice-involved individuals. More broadly, the paper also argues for the importance of an evaluation approach based on methodological pluralism capable of complementing outcome-oriented evaluations with a deeper understanding of the complex social processes that public policies aim to govern. Such reflections have a central importance in societies characterized by complex transitions and an ever-growing demand for policy evaluation.
Dr. İsrafil Boyaci
Assistant Professor
İstanbul Ticaret University
Progress Toward Universal Health Coverage in the Transformed Health System of Türkiye in 2001-2021 as a Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 3) with a Global Landscape
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Dr. İsrafil Boyaci (p)
Abstract
Purpose: This article aims to comparatively evaluate the development of universal health coverage in Türkiye over the years, which is targeted to be achieved with the completion of health reforms carried out under the Health Transformation Program between 2003 and 2013. Aiming to inform health policy processes, the descriptive comparative analyses shed light on the developments over the past two decades in achieving health service coverage and financial protection, both in Türkiye and globally.
Method: Using the country-level data published by the WHO covering the years 2000-2021, the development of universal health care coverage in the Turkish health system over the years, compared to global trends, was examined through international comparative descriptive analyses. Data from 2000 to 2021, published by WHO on SDG 3.8.1 Service Coverage Index, UHC SCI, related to health service provision and SDG 3.8.2 on catastrophic out-of-pocket health expenditures concerning financial protection in access to health services are used.
Findings: The findings reveal significant progress in universal health coverage during Türkiye’s Health Transformation Program (2003-2013), which comprehensively restructured the country’s health system and specifically aimed to achieve universal health coverage nationwide. However, progress stalled in the later years following this reform program. The notable progress, especially between 2000 and 2015, was driven by all UHC SCI subindices of health service coverage. The lack of further improvement in the index scores in the post-reforms years serves as a warning. Globally, there have been significant improvements in the expansion of health care coverage compared to the deterioration of financial protection over the years; however, the progress in health service coverage has stagnated in recent years as well. In light of the SDG UHC indicators on universal health coverage of the Sustainable Development Goals, it is clear that the recent trends in global values of the indicators regarding both health service coverage and ‘catastrophic’ out-of-pocket health expenditure are alarming.
Originality and Significance: As a result of the comparative descriptive analyses in the article, the changes in health service coverage and financial protection in the country's health system over the years are illuminated in comparison with country groups globally. The findings of the study have the potential to serve as an input to health policy design processes nationwide and globally.
Method: Using the country-level data published by the WHO covering the years 2000-2021, the development of universal health care coverage in the Turkish health system over the years, compared to global trends, was examined through international comparative descriptive analyses. Data from 2000 to 2021, published by WHO on SDG 3.8.1 Service Coverage Index, UHC SCI, related to health service provision and SDG 3.8.2 on catastrophic out-of-pocket health expenditures concerning financial protection in access to health services are used.
Findings: The findings reveal significant progress in universal health coverage during Türkiye’s Health Transformation Program (2003-2013), which comprehensively restructured the country’s health system and specifically aimed to achieve universal health coverage nationwide. However, progress stalled in the later years following this reform program. The notable progress, especially between 2000 and 2015, was driven by all UHC SCI subindices of health service coverage. The lack of further improvement in the index scores in the post-reforms years serves as a warning. Globally, there have been significant improvements in the expansion of health care coverage compared to the deterioration of financial protection over the years; however, the progress in health service coverage has stagnated in recent years as well. In light of the SDG UHC indicators on universal health coverage of the Sustainable Development Goals, it is clear that the recent trends in global values of the indicators regarding both health service coverage and ‘catastrophic’ out-of-pocket health expenditure are alarming.
Originality and Significance: As a result of the comparative descriptive analyses in the article, the changes in health service coverage and financial protection in the country's health system over the years are illuminated in comparison with country groups globally. The findings of the study have the potential to serve as an input to health policy design processes nationwide and globally.