Ms Nóra Baranyai (p)

The German community constitutes the largest officially recognized national minority in Poland and has been continuously represented in the lower house of parliament, the Sejm, since the political transition of 1990. Although unfavorable demographic trends – most notably the declining size of the German minority and the gradual weakening of its territorial concentration – had long suggested the possibility of electoral vulnerability, the complete loss of parliamentary representation in the 2023 elections nevertheless marked a significant and unexpected turning point.
The events must be situated within the broader context of democratic backsliding in Central and Eastern Europe, accompanied by the rise of populism, political polarization, and illiberal governance practices. The 2023 parliamentary elections in Poland were characterized by intense competition between the authoritarian-populist Law and Justice party (PiS) and the pro-EU Civic Coalition (KO), resulting in unprecedented levels of political mobilization. The election produced a record-high voter turnout, which proved decisive in reshaping electoral dynamics and ultimately contributed to the loss of the German minority mandate.
Drawing on relevant scholarly literature, as well as census and electoral data, this study analyzes the structural, political, and mobilizational factors underlying the loss of parliamentary representation and the associated changes in voting behavior. The complex dynamics of minority political mobilization are further examined through the application of the Strijbis–Kotnarowski mobilization index, which allows for assessment of shifts in electoral participation and party competition over time.
The (potentially temporary) end of the era characterized by German parliamentary representation also provides an opportunity for retrospective evaluation. By analyzing the parliamentary activities of German minority representatives as recorded in plenary transcripts, the study assesses the substantive focus of their legislative work, identifies the policy areas in which they were most active, and evaluates the extent to which they effectively represented the interests of their ethnic community and electorate.

Dr. Pavlinka Vladimirova (p), Prof. Marin Roussev

Electoral transformations in Bulgaria in recent decades have been determined by a complex interaction between demographic, economic, ethno-confessional, socio-political and party factors, which in their aggregate change both the structure of the electorate and the logic of political representation. These processes lead to tangible changes in voter turnout, the territorial distribution of the vote and the degree of institutionalization and sustainability of the party system.
Bulgaria is among the countries in the European Union with the highest mortality rate and the fastest declining population. Aging, negative natural growth and continued external migration reduce the absolute number of voters, while simultaneously increasing the relative share of elderly voters. This has a direct impact on electoral behavior - the importance of socially conservative attitudes, policies aimed at social security and income, as well as stability as a value in political choice is increasing. In addition, internal migration and the depopulation of peripheral and rural areas lead to an uneven electoral weight between large urban centers and small settlements.
A specific factor for the Bulgarian political dynamics is the traditional social divisions (cleaviges) - center-periphery, city-village, ethnic and religious differences, as well as socio-economic inequalities. After 2022, these divisions were further strengthened by external military-political events, which polarized public attitudes along lines such as Euro-Atlantic orientation versus Euroscepticism and geopolitical loyalty. Thus, a new dimension of value and foreign policy opposition was added to the traditional internal cleavages, which affected party competition and coalition formats.
After the democratic changes after 1989, relatively stable macro-electoral regions were formed, characterized by predictable party support, regardless of the personal and organizational transformations of the parties. For years, certain regions have identified themselves as “left”, “right” or dominated by ethno-confessional votes, which has created stable geographical voting patterns. However, these patterns have been called into question in the period of increased political fragmentation and institutional instability. The holding of eight parliamentary elections in the period 2021–2026 has accelerated the processes of electoral mobility and shaken traditional regional identifications. Some electoral regions have changed their political orientation, with a shift in support between ideologically and value-diverse parties being observed. Traditionally right-wing regions have registered stronger support for liberal and anti-system formations, while traditionally left-wing regions have provided higher results for ethno-confessional parties. This indicates a weakening of classic ideological divisions and a growing importance of pragmatic motives in voting.

Dr. Emilia Bogacka (p)

For many years, the European Parliament elections have been described as second-order elections. Although institutionally considered direct elections to an international parliament, they are perceived by citizens and political elites primarily through the prism of national politics. It has been recognized that as long as important political decisions are decided at the national level, European elections will remain additional, second-order national elections.
In recent years, these elections have been analyzed through the lens of the rise of populism and Euroscepticism, which have significantly changed the dynamics of political competition at the European level. However, the eurozone financial crisis, the migration crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions have contributed to the persistent politicization of European integration, making European elections a particularly fertile field for populist groups.
The need to combine second-order theories with theories of the politicization of European integration is emphasized. As a result, elections in the era of populism have a hybrid character: they retain the features of secondary elections but also serve as an arena for genuine ideological debates about the future of the European Union.
The study examines the mechanisms shaping the results of the European Parliament elections in Poland, taking into account the debate on second-order and hybridity, and their interpretation from the perspective of long-term political transformations. In addressing the relationship between the European Parliament elections and the parliamentary elections, the focus was primarily on voter turnout as a fundamental determinant of the election's significance. The issue of rewarding or punishing the country's ruling parties in European elections was considered important; therefore, the discussion included support for key parties and protest parties, or those on the periphery of the political scene. The study concludes with considerations of postal voting as a possible indicator of citizens’ determination to participate despite logistical obstacles.
The study used electoral data published by the National Electoral Commission, covering five European Parliament elections (2004, 2009, 2014, 2019, 2024) and seven parliamentary elections (2001, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023). The methodological framework was based on indicator analysis, including the measurement of voter turnout and its comparison, as well as party support. A key element was spatial analysis, which enabled assessment of the phenomenon across various spatial reference systems: 13 electoral districts for the European elections, 16 regions, and 41 electoral districts for the parliamentary elections. Cartographic methods were used to supplement the data, enabling the visualization of spatial turnout patterns.