Prof. Andrea Caragliu (p)

This papers presents a critical discussion of the way regional growth models have been evolving in social sciences over the past century. I discuss five main classes of models: (i.) Input-Output assessments; (ii.) Single-equation macroeconometric regional growth models; (iii.) Multi-equation macroeconometric regional growth models; (iv.) Spatial Computable General Equilibrium models; and (v.) Regional Agent-Based growth models.

For each class of model the main advantages and disadvantages are illustrated. I conclude with the state of the art of this branch of the literature, and with some guidelines for its evolution in the close future.

Dr. Maureen Lankhuizen (p), Dr. Thomas de Graaff, Professor dr. Henri de Groot

This paper discusses the potential for an evidence-based EU cohesion policy cycle inspired by the recommendations of Barca (2009), where ex-ante modelling exercises continuously learn from ex-post evaluations from previous studies on the effectiveness of past policy interventions. We argue that meta-analysis could be an ideal tool to combine all prior knowledge and update key parameters for subsequent spatial general equilibrium and scenario modelling. To illustrate this potential, we apply a systematic literature review of nine recent EU policies and initiatives with explicit spatial impacts that could be synergetic with the EU cohesion policy. Our findings reveal at best a very limited availability of econometric ex-post impact assessments or policy evaluations for most of the policies that we consider. Especially studies with a causal design are almost non-existing. We therefore signal a strong need for more ex-post primary impact evaluations that are essential for the ambition to learn from and improve upon policy practices in financially one of the largest policy domains of the European Union.

Prof. Katarzyna Kopczewska (p), Prof. Martin Andersson, Ms Monika Kot, Dr Maria Kubara

Regional economic resilience is widely acknowledged as a multidimensional and spatially uneven process, yet most empirical studies continue to treat regions as homogeneous units. This paper advances a micro-spatial perspective on resilience by arguing that regional resilience emerges from the resilience of local neighbourhoods and industrial ecosystems. We introduce the Local Industrial Resilience Index (LIRI), a novel grid-level measure that captures how resistance, recovery, renewal, and reorientation jointly shape adaptive capacity at the sub-regional scale. Using geo-referenced firm-level data for the Warsaw metropolitan region (Mazowieckie Voivodeship, Poland), we operationalize resilience on a 2 × 2 km grid over the period 2012–2021, allowing us to uncover patterns that remain invisible in aggregate regional analyses

Methodologically, LIRI integrates firm survival and birth dynamics with detailed measures of local industrial structure, including specialisation, diversity, concentration, and related variety. Resistance and recovery are derived from deviations between observed and expected firm survival and entry, while renewal and reorientation capture the degree to which new firms branch into related or unrelated activities. This multidimensional framework explicitly balances short-term robustness with longer-term adaptability. By grounding resilience in firm-level behaviour and local industrial relatedness, the index provides a micro-founded and spatially fine-grained measure of industrial resilience.

Empirical results show that resilience does not follow a simple core–periphery pattern. While the Warsaw core exhibits high resilience, several medium-sized towns also display strong adaptive capacity, whereas many peripheral and mono-industrial neighbourhoods remain structurally vulnerable. Related variety emerges as a key driver of local resilience, fostering both firm survival and adaptive renewal, while high sectoral concentration consistently undermines resilience across all dimensions. These findings demonstrate that regional resilience is an emergent property of interconnected local industrial ecosystems rather than a function of scale or density alone. The paper contributes to evolutionary economic geography and resilience research by offering a transferable measurement framework and provides actionable insights for place-based, ecosystem-oriented regional policy.