Dr. Viktor Venhorst (p), Ms Helena Barachino, Ms Anneke Timmermans, Prof. Jouke van Dijk

This study examines whether COVID-19 restrictions imposed scarring effects on new Dutch higher education graduates entering the labour market. Using microdata from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) covering the labour market entry periods of approximately one million graduates between 2014 and 2024, we estimate OLS regressions for entry wages and logistic regressions for the probability of full-time employment in graduates’ first post-graduation jobs. We compare different phases and durations of exposure to pandemic-related restrictions and assess whether prior job experience mitigated potential short-term scarring effects on initial labour market outcomes.
The results show that the pandemic period reduced both early-career wages and the probability of full-time employment. Under pre-pandemic conditions, prior job experience consistently generated wage premiums and increased the likelihood of obtaining full-time employment relative to graduates without such experience. Prior job experience consistently acts as a protective buffer to COVID-19 disruptions, however it could not fully offset or erase them.
This research is among the first to analyze early-career outcomes across the entire pandemic period, offering novel evidence into the effects of COVID-19 exposure to the labor market entry of new graduates.

Dr. Eduardo Ibarra-Olivo (p), Andrés Espejo

Multinational Enterprise (MNE) presence may affect the degree of informality in the host economy. Whilst foreign firms generally operate within the formal sector of the economy, they may also choose to outsource some business functions in the host informal labour markets. The economic significance of these effects will depend on the labour force requirements for a given economic sector and the reliance of MNEs on certain types of labour. This paper examines the case of Mexican subnational regions. On the one hand, recent decades have witnessed changes in sectoral composition of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) along with changes in the spatial distribution at the subnational level. On the other hand, labour informality is still commonplace in the Mexican economy, though, informality rates vary markedly across subnational regions. This paper studies the heterogeneous effects of MNEs’ direct investment activities on informality in the host region and sector of destination. By exploiting cross-municipality variation in both labour informality and inward FDI stocks, we can assess the capacity of such investments to increase or decrease informal employment in the host regional economy. This paper sheds light on the link between FDI and labour informality in the context of an emerging Latin American economy. The implications on labour market outcomes are ascertained not only on individuals but regions as well.

Dr. Alessandra Bucci (p), Dr Luca Gastaldi

The paper examines the relationship between digital connectivity and income inequality in Europe, arguing that digitalization should not be interpreted as a direct and autonomous driver of distributive change. While internet access, broadband, and mobile connectivity have expanded opportunities for communication, education, work, and welfare, their effects are not uniformly inclusive. Building on this premise, the study proposes a different analytical perspective: digitalization is conceptualized as a macro-level moderating factor that conditions the impact of established structural drivers of inequality, rather than as an independent variable expected to reduce inequality on its own.
The empirical analysis relies on a balanced macro-panel dataset covering 23 European countries from 2000 to 2023. The dependent variable is the Gini index of disposable income, chosen because it captures income concentration after taxes and transfers and therefore reflects both market inequality and state redistribution Extended abstract.docx. The model includes major structural determinants of inequality, such as tertiary education, labor market composition, tax revenues, and social protection expenditure, and interacts them with three indicators of digital development: household internet access, fixed broadband density, and mobile subscriptions. Methodologically, the study adopts a static Fixed Effects model with interaction terms and temporal lags, a specification designed to capture within-country variation over time while addressing the limits of conventional direct-effect approaches.
The findings strongly support the moderation hypothesis. Digital connectivity strengthens the equalizing effect of tertiary education, suggesting that human capital is more effective in reducing inequality where digital infrastructure is more widespread and socially embedded. At the same time, the results show that digital expansion can worsen distributive outcomes in labor markets characterized by precarious or service-based employment, where it may intensify fragmentation and polarization rather than promote inclusion Extended abstract.docx. The analysis also finds that digital access improves the redistributive effectiveness of welfare systems, but mainly in countries with stronger institutional capacity and more comprehensive social protection arrangements.
Overall, the paper shows that digitalization is neither inherently egalitarian nor inherently unequalizing. Its distributive consequences depend on how digital development interacts with education systems, labor market structures, and welfare institutions. The main contribution of the study lies in reframing digitalization as a structural condition that modifies the operation of other inequality drivers. For public policy, this implies that investments in connectivity alone are insufficient. If digital transformation is to support more inclusive growth, infrastructure expansion must be accompanied by policies that strengthen digital skills, labor protections, and the inclusive capacity of public institutions.