Dr. Zoulfikar Mehoumoud Issop (p), Dr. Idriss Fontaine, Dr. Harivola Ravelonarivo

Madagascar presents a development paradox: despite abundant natural resources, strategic geographic location, and a large labor force, the country experienced severe economic divergence from Sub-Saharan African peers after 2009 (Razafindrakoto et al., 2015). More troubling than the growth loss is the structural reversion: between 2003 and 2008, Madagascar integrated into Global Value Chains (GVCs) through manufacturing exports (textiles under AGOA); the 2009 constitutional coup triggered the collapse of these backward linkages (contract-intensive assembly) while forward linkages (resource extraction) persisted (Fontaine & Razafindravaosolonirina, 2022).

This paper argues that political instability acts as an "institutional filter," selectively eroding sectors according to their institutional requirements. Manufacturing requires credible contract enforcement (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007; Antràs & Chor, 2013), while resource extraction can operate through political capture (Tornell & Lane, 1999). We formalize this mechanism and quantify its structural cost using causal inference.

We contribute in three ways. First, we develop a theoretical model showing institutional collapse imposes differential costs by contract intensity, generating a threshold beyond which backward linkages exit while forward linkages persist. Second, we apply the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to GVC participation indicators for the first time (Abadie et al., 2010, 2015), constructing a credible counterfactual Madagascar that isolates the 2009 rupture's causal effect. Third, we document asymmetric empirical response: backward linkage participation diverges sharply downward post-2009 while forward linkage participation remains stable, consistent with recent work showing institutional quality predicts GVC depth with larger backward-linkage effects (Fernandes et al., 2020; Adarov & Stehrer, 2021).

We employ SCM on annual UNCTAD-EORA Multi-Regional Input-Output data (1990–2018), matching Madagascar on pre-treatment covariates (GDP per capita, trade openness, FDI/GDP, World Governance Indicators). Treatment is the 2009 constitutional rupture. Outcomes are (1) Backward Linkage Integration (Foreign Value Added / total exports) and (2) Forward Linkage Integration (Domestic Value Added exported / total exports). Placebo tests validate effect uniqueness.

The expected results are that backward linkages may declined representing manufacturing capacity loss which is a structural cost that exceed aggregate GDP loss estimates. This potentiel result validates institutional filtration and demonstrates that institutional reform, not fiscal incentives alone, is necessary for manufacturing recovery. Implications inform Madagascar's 2025 political transition and African development strategy.

Mr Emilio Becker (p), Dr. Eduardo Sanguinet

How do regional productive structures shape vulnerability when trade patterns and value chains are being reconfigured? A useful way to approach this question is to separate changes driven by sectoral composition from region-specific dynamics, and to interpret persistent specialization as a structural channel of exposure. The empirical setting considered here features strong metropolitan concentration, resource-based exporting regions, and heterogeneous service and manufacturing bases, providing a clear context to operationalize this perspective and connect it to broader debates on territorial resilience under external shocks.

Using an adjusted shift-share framework (SSA-A), regional structural change over 2013–2023 is decomposed into sector-mix (structural) effects and region-specific components. These elements are then used to construct a typology of structural trajectories for 16 regions, moving beyond binary winner/loser narratives and delivering a comparable classification of regional profiles as the paper’s core output. The typology serves as an operational entry point to discuss vulnerability channels: trajectories dominated by persistent specialization in tradable activities and limited diversification are consistent with higher exposure to sectoral and trade-related shocks, whereas more diversified structures are consistent with greater adjustment capacity and potentially lower sensitivity to single-sector disruptions.

The contribution is twofold. First, the paper provides a transparent regional classification that supports policy-relevant discussion of territorial vulnerabilities in a context of production-network reconfiguration, without requiring strong assumptions about fully observed interregional flows at the submission stage. Second, it outlines a feasible extension linking SSA-A profiles to interregional input–output tools to characterize production linkages and, in later stages, approximate productive dependence and territorial value-added capture.

Dr. Rubén Macías (p), Dr. Roberto González, Dr. Manuel Díaz

This research examines the effect of employment in the manufacturing industry of Aguascalientes on the local economy, given that manufacturing constitutes the most significant economic activity in the state. It is essential to consider global value chains as a transversal axis that promotes foreign direct investment through the establishment of transnational corporations’ production plants in various countries, with the purpose of reducing production costs and increasing organizational competitiveness in their productive activities. Accordingly, the calculation of the export-employment multiplier for the manufacturing sector is carried out using data from the 2024 Economic Censuses. The results demonstrate the impact of export activities on sectors engaged in non-export activities, along with their corresponding multipliers, which indicate the number of jobs generated in the local economy for each additional worker hired in the manufacturing sector in Aguascalientes. The study concludes by underscoring the importance of government participation in the development of public policies that foster foreign direct investment and stimulate the export sector.