Prof. Rosella Nicolini (p), Prof. Alberto Bucci, Mr Pau Costa Capdevila

In this contribution, we propose a theoretical framework that highlights the role of human capital in mitigating the negative effects of an ageing population on long-run economic growth, particularly when a region is also experiencing significant immigration inflows. The analysis is conducted at the sub-national level to account for the spatial dimension of one of the keys (and expected) determinants of economic growth: migration. Available evidence confirms that migration inflows are territorially unequal, with immigrants tending to concentrate in specific areas due to network effects. Our theoretical model reinforces the idea that investment in human capital is a key driver of economic growth. However, it also suggests that large inflows of migrants into a region can reduce per capita investment in human capital, thereby negatively affecting that region’s growth rate. An empirical application of this theoretical framework is presented for Spain at the NUTS2/NUTS3 level. Spain provides a relevant case study, as it has been one of the main recipients of immigrants since the 2000s and is also one of the European countries most affected by significant regional disparities in ageing.

Prof. Michael Cameron (p)

Demographic trends in developed (and developing) countries have increasing tended towards higher life expectancy and lower fertility. A consequence of those long-run trends has been a rise in natural decrease (more deaths than births), which is increasingly a feature of national population change. However, trends at the national level can mask substantial subnational variation. In this paper, we investigate subnational trends in natural decrease for New Zealand, a country where national-level natural decrease has yet to commence. Specifically, we summarise past, present, and future natural decrease at the territorial authority and local board (TALB) level (n=87), covering the period from 1998 to 2023 and ahead to 2048. Over this fifty-year period, natural decrease becomes apparent in an increasing number and proportion of TALBs, initially concentrating in areas that are more remote and peripheral, but becoming a majority of al TALBs by the end of the period considered. Unsurprisingly, the prevalence of natural decrease is highly correlated with the degree of structural ageing of the population, with areas that have older populations systematically facing natural decrease. Despite these overall trends, some TALBs, particularly those that are urban and have large tertiary education institutions, maintain a structurally younger population and avoid natural decrease until at least 2048. These results demonstrate the importance of earlier work on subnational structural ageing, and reinforce that policymakers and other decision-makers should remain cognisant of the importance of subnational population ageing and subnational demographic trends more generally.

Prof. Alessandra Faggian (p), Dr. Thea Jansen, Prof. Daniele Vignoli

This study examines the relationship between local firm productivity and fertility outcomes in Italy, advancing the
hypothesis that productivity is a key structural determinant of household economic security and, in turn, fertility
decisions. Although the demographic literature extensively documents the role of economic uncertainty in explaining
persistently low fertility rates (Comolli, 2017; Matysiak et al., 2021; Vignoli et al., 2020), the contribution of
productivity to income adequacy, employment stability, and future expectations remains largely understudied.
Leveraging a highly granular panel dataset of Italian municipalities over the period 2015–2022, the analysis investigates
the association between local firm productivity and fertility rates, controlling for a comprehensive set of socio-
economic, demographic, and territorial factors, including educational attainment, migration balances, housing costs,
firm size distribution, sectoral specialization, and urban–peripheral gradients. To address endogeneity concerns and
identify causal effects, the study adopts an instrumental variable strategy. Historical land suitability for wheat
cultivation is exploited as an exogenous source of variation in contemporary productivity, reflecting long-run
geographic and agronomic characteristics that shaped capital accumulation and local economic development, while
remaining plausibly unrelated to current fertility behavior except through productivity. The results provide robust
evidence that higher local productivity leads to significantly higher fertility rates. These findings challenge the
conventional view of a trade-off between economic growth and social well-being, whereby resources devoted to
competitiveness are assumed to detract from social protection, and vice versa. Instead, the analysis suggests that
productivity-enhancing policies should be regarded as a core component of demographic and family policy, alongside
more traditional welfare interventions.

Mr Petr Petrakov (p)

This paper introduces dynamic urbanistics as a distinct field of inquiry focused on the analysis of sudden, spatially differentiated shifts in urban population size and administrative status. Drawing on a newly compiled dataset that integrates all Soviet and Russian population censuses from 1970 to 2021, the study tracks inter-censal growth and decline rates for every urban settlement—cities, urban-type settlements (PGT), and workers’ settlements—while documenting changes in their legal status. Percentage changes were calculated for each inter-censal interval, revealing both long-term trajectories and abrupt turning points.
Theoretically, the research engages with and critiques the differential urbanization model developed by Gibbs, Geyer, and Kontuly. While that framework usefully describes successive stages of concentration, suburbanisation, and reurbanisation in mature market economies, it proves inadequate for the Russian case. The Soviet legacy of centrally directed industrialisation, combined with the abrupt imposition of market logic after 1991, produced patterns that do not align with Western sequences. The paper therefore proposes dynamic urbanistics as a more context-sensitive approach that foregrounds institutional rupture, state-orchestrated frontier development, and the selective operation of market signals.
Empirical analysis distinguishes two broad periods. In the 1970s, virtually all urban settlements expanded, driven by the third stage of the demographic transition and massive state investment in Siberian and Far Eastern “frontier” towns such as Nadym and Neryungri. By the 2010s–2020s, growth had become sharply polarised. Agglomerative expansion around Moscow and St Petersburg transformed former rural villages into urban satellites (for example, Murino’s population surged past 116,000). Climate-driven migration swelled settlements in Krasnodar Krai and Kaliningrad Oblast, while hydrocarbon regions in Yamalo-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi autonomous okrugs continued to attract labour. Innovative private initiatives, such as the IT-focused Innopolis and the fully market-driven Dobrograd, illustrate new forms of urban creation.
Conversely, hundreds of mono-industrial PGTs (urban-type settelments) and northern towns experienced catastrophic contraction. The “vacuum cleaner” effect drained labour from the near periphery of the two capitals, while the end of northern benefits and the shift to fly-in/fly-out operations emptied settlements across Magadan Oblast and Chukotka. The study concludes that Russia’s post-Soviet transition did not merely accelerate existing cycles; it generated a structurally new geography of urban viability. By highlighting the decisive role of institutional legacies and market selectivity, the paper lays the groundwork for a revised theoretical model better suited to transitional and post-socialist contexts.