Prof. Vinko Mustra (p), Dr. Zvonimir Kuliš

The concept of the development trap has recently gained prominence as a framework for identifying territories that struggle to sustain economic dynamism relative to national and European peers (Iammarino et al., 2020; Diemer et al., 2022; Rodríguez-Pose et al., 2024). While previous research has emphasized the structural and institutional underpinnings of such traps, far less attention has been devoted to their manifestation within local sub-national units, particularly within geographically constrained island contexts.
This paper examines development traps across Croatian islands, with a specific focus on the role of tourism in shaping island development trajectories. Although more than four decades of island tourism research exist, the field remains comparatively underdeveloped and characterized by important knowledge gaps related to small-island dynamics (Garrod et al., 2024, McLeod, 2025).
Using a unique longitudinal dataset covering 48 municipalities and towns on Croatian islands over the period 2011–2022, a timeframe marked by major shocks including the aftermath of the global financial crisis, Croatia’s accession to the European Union and the COVID-19 pandemic, we apply a standardized multi-period framework to identify two forms of development traps. The first, a stable trap (DT1), captures local units that remain persistently confined to the same segment of the national income distribution without upward mobility. The second, a downward trajectory trap (DT2), reflects monotonic stagnation or decline in standardized income over time.
Our findings reveal substantial heterogeneity in island development paths and challenge simplistic narratives of tourism as an automatic engine of convergence. While tourism intensity is associated with higher income levels in some island municipalities, it is also linked to structural dependence and heightened vulnerability to external shocks, conditions that may entrench rather than alleviate development traps. By bridging development trap theory with island tourism scholarship, this study provides new evidence on the limits of tourism-led development and highlights the need for place-sensitive, diversification-oriented policy approaches to foster resilient and inclusive island economies.

Dr. Neven Ivandic (p), Dr. Ivan Kozic

The Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) is a methodologically coherent and analytically relevant framework for analysing the characteristics of tourism activity and quantifying the direct contribution of tourism to the economy (Frechtling, 2010). Despite its analytical relevance, the use of the Tourism Satellite Account for tourism policy formulation faces several limitations, partly due to its focus on the national level. This limitation is particularly relevant in the presence of regional asymmetries in the distribution of tourism flows and the intensity of tourism activity. As a result, methodological approaches for developing regional TSAs have emerged, involving the adaptation of the TSA to the regional level in terms of concepts, content, methods, and data sources.
The purpose of this paper is to examine the methodological framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic contribution of tourism at the regional level, using a selected region in the Republic of Croatia as a case study and applying a top-down approach. The main contribution of the paper is a systematic evaluation of the strengths and limitations of methodologies used to measure regional tourism impacts based on the regionalisation of national data. This contribution is particularly relevant given the prevailing focus of the existing literature on the estimation of tourism’s direct contribution through TSA regionalisation.
The analysis of the gap between available and required data, together with the characteristics of the applied methods, reveals several methodological limitations, particularly concerning the intertemporal harmonisation of data sources, the consistency of product/activity classifications between the regional TSA and the input–output table, and the feasibility of adapting the national input–output table to the regional level. Nevertheless, the results provide clear guidance for improving available data sources, especially in countries and regions where tourism represents a key driver of overall economic activity. This is particularly important because more accurate regional estimates of tourism’s economic contribution enable policymakers to design targeted and context-specific interventions and enhance the capacity to anticipate and mitigate tourism-related pressures.

Dr. Zvonimir Kuliš (p), Dr. Vinko Muštra, Dr. Blanka Šimundić

This paper engages with the tourism-led growth hypothesis, which posits that tourism can act as a significant driver of economic development, particularly in regions rich in natural and cultural resources. However, the concept of regional development traps complicates this narrative, as regions may become overly reliant on tourism, thereby increasing economic vulnerability and widening social disparities. A regional development trap refers to a situation in which certain regions fail to sustain economic growth and development due to structural, institutional, or resource-related constraints (Iammarino et al., 2020; Diemer et al., 2022; Rodríguez-Pose et al., 2024). In this context, excessive specialization in tourism may generate diminishing returns, since the sector is often labour-intensive and characterized by limited technological progress (Deng et al., 2014). Tourism may therefore either alleviate or reinforce development traps, depending on how it is embedded within the broader regional economy. This raises questions about the sustainability of tourism-led growth and the risk that regions may become locked into dependency patterns that impede diversification.

Although the tourism-led growth hypothesis has been widely studied—especially at the national level—empirical evidence and theoretical discussion remain limited with respect to regional dynamics and the traps that may emerge from tourism dependence. Addressing this gap calls for a more regionally grounded approach that accounts for spatial interdependence, the possibility of economic lock-in, and the need for disaggregated analysis. Against this background, the study investigates the relationship between regional development traps and tourism specialization.

To do so, a modified regional development trap index is calculated for NUTS 2 regions and combined with measures of tourism specialization in a spatial econometric framework to examine how tourism specialization relates to regional economic performance. The study contributes to a clearer understanding of how tourism can operate as both a source of growth and a potential constraint, highlighting the need for balanced and sustainable regional development strategies that harness tourism’s benefits while mitigating its structural risks.

Prof. Blanka Šimundić (p), Prof Zvonimir Kuliš, Ph.D Bogdan-Constantin Ibanescu, Ph.D Bart Neuts

Recent research in economic geography and regional science increasingly focuses on regional resilience and the role of tourism within it. Tourism is viewed either as (1) a system reacting to shocks, (2) a driver of broader regional resilience, or (3) a potential source of vulnerability requiring resilience in other systems. Within this debate, two strands dominate: “tourism-induced resilience,” examining tourism’s contribution to regional economic resilience, and “tourism resilience,” focusing on the sector’s ability to withstand and recover from shocks. This study contributes to the latter by analyzing determinants of tourism resilience in EU NUTS-2 regions.
Using data for 242 EU NUTS-2 regions from Eurostat (2024) and the EU Tourism Dashboard (2024), tourism resilience is measured relative to the EU average, distinguishing between resistance (change in overnight stays in 2020) and recovery (changes in 2021–2022 compared to 2019). Explanatory variables include tourism demand indicators (e.g., domestic/international shares, average stay, seasonality), supply factors (e.g., capacity, employment, heritage sites), and controls (innovation, urbanization, specialization, governance).
Results show that longer stays and a higher share of domestic tourism enhance resistance, while strong dependence on international tourism reduces it. Conversely, international orientation supports faster recovery. Supply factors, including tourism capacity and UNESCO heritage presence, matter mainly during recovery. Determinants differ between resistance and recovery phases, and resilience exhibits positive spatial spillovers. The findings provide policy-relevant insights for strengthening tourism resilience across EU regions.