G04-3 International Trade, Global Value Chains and Regional Growth under Reconfiguration (De-risking, Reshoring, Strategic Autonomy)
Tracks
Track 2
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 |
| 15:00 - 17:00 |
| Auditorium 256 - North Building - Faculty of Geology and Geography |
Details
Chair: Jorge Manuel Lopez Alvarez
The discussant for each presentation is the presenter of the next paper in the session. The first presenter is the discussant of the last paper.
Speaker
Prof. Dimitrios Karkanis
Assistant Professor
University of Macedonia
Sustainability in CRM supply chains: Revising the post-Global Gateway agenda?
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Prof. Dimitrios Kyrkilis (p), Mr. Charalampos Bakagiannis, Prof. Dimitrios Karkanis
Abstract
The search for and improvement of the European Union’s terms of access to the supply chain of critical or strategic raw materials is already considered of key importance for the future steps of the EU economy. Global economic competition to gain access to productive sectors related to the CRM / SRM industry (e.g. mining, processing) increasingly shapes the EU policies, as long as the BRICS group controls the major share of the production processes. The European Union is called upon to set the rules and ensure, on the one hand, the smooth functioning of sustainable supply chains globally, and, on the other hand, to update foreign economic policies, such as the Global Gateway. The latter EU initiative aims, among others, at enhancing economic cooperation with African states, combined with investment projects and financial tools for several key interventions, mainly in the fields of green and digital transition, sustainable growth and job creation, as well as in human capital.
The aim of the present study is to delve into the divergent patterns of economic cooperation between African states and the major economies being economically active in the African continent during the recent years. An overview of the recent relevant literature seeks to assess whether foreign-based investment strategies are aligned, so far, with origin-based economic institutions, such as the ACFTA initiative, or even to introduce more local ownership business schemes. The study intends to highlight any best practices of “win-win” economic relationships between African states and foreign-based economic entities penetrating the African market, but also the extent to which foreign penetration is aligned to the continent’s development challenges and the Sustainable Development Goals.
In this context, several questions may arise regarding the EU investment (re)orientation in Africa in light of this generalized geopolitical competition. Does the EU possess any comparative advantages in providing financing tools for infrastructure construction, compared to other global economic competitors, in specific sectors? At the policy level, is there a need for reconsidering the key objectives or the financing tools in the context of the Global Gateway, from 2027 onwards, in order to enhance cooperation in the context of the proper functioning of the CRM / SRM supply chains? Are there any prospects of promoting research cooperation schemes between African states and their EU partners, as long as investment is human capital is of major importance for both sides, given the demographic decline in the European Union?
The aim of the present study is to delve into the divergent patterns of economic cooperation between African states and the major economies being economically active in the African continent during the recent years. An overview of the recent relevant literature seeks to assess whether foreign-based investment strategies are aligned, so far, with origin-based economic institutions, such as the ACFTA initiative, or even to introduce more local ownership business schemes. The study intends to highlight any best practices of “win-win” economic relationships between African states and foreign-based economic entities penetrating the African market, but also the extent to which foreign penetration is aligned to the continent’s development challenges and the Sustainable Development Goals.
In this context, several questions may arise regarding the EU investment (re)orientation in Africa in light of this generalized geopolitical competition. Does the EU possess any comparative advantages in providing financing tools for infrastructure construction, compared to other global economic competitors, in specific sectors? At the policy level, is there a need for reconsidering the key objectives or the financing tools in the context of the Global Gateway, from 2027 onwards, in order to enhance cooperation in the context of the proper functioning of the CRM / SRM supply chains? Are there any prospects of promoting research cooperation schemes between African states and their EU partners, as long as investment is human capital is of major importance for both sides, given the demographic decline in the European Union?
Prof. Simona Iammarino
Full Professor
Gran Sasso Science Institute (gssi)
Critical and Strategic Raw Materials and Mining Technologies in the European Regions
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Prof. Simona Iammarino (p), Mr. Diego Dessì, Prof. Stefano Usai
Abstract
Under the ongoing technological paradigm shift, mineral resources have become essential inputs for emerging industries and technologies. As technological change accelerates, demand for some materials that once played a marginal role (e.g., lithium, graphite, or dysprosium), and for base metals already used in large volumes (e.g., copper and nickel), is expected to increase dramatically by 2050. The scale and speed of global demand growth have raised serious concerns about the ability of economic systems to respond timely and to overcome constraints and vulnerabilities along the entire raw-materials supply chain.
In this context, technological progress in mining plays a crucial role. Innovation in extraction methods, automation, digital monitoring systems, and advanced processing technologies are becoming essential to improve productivity, expand economically viable reserves, and reduce operational and environmental constraints - especially where profitable mineral resources are scarce, and extraction and processing costs are high. However, over the last decades, the European Union’s response to these technological, productive, and geopolitical challenges has been slow and inconsistent, somehow moving in the opposite direction to major competitors, and positioning itself as a late follower in revitalising a sector that has undergone major technological and productive transformations elsewhere in the world.
With recent initiatives such as the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), under the umbrella of the Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA), the EU has shown a regained interest in the sector. At the same time, the strategy appears more focused on attracting business investment to expand domestic supply than on rebuilding the upstream capabilities needed for primary raw-material extraction and production in a more sustainable fashion. The geography of mining technologies and the factors driving their development remain largely understudied at the European level, preventing a clear understanding of how the strategies can foster innovation and support the EU’s potential to expand and diversify the supply of Strategic and Critical Raw Materials. In this paper we analyse the determinants of the development in mining technologies, considering them across distinct technological subcategories and adopting a geographical perspective on European regions.
In this context, technological progress in mining plays a crucial role. Innovation in extraction methods, automation, digital monitoring systems, and advanced processing technologies are becoming essential to improve productivity, expand economically viable reserves, and reduce operational and environmental constraints - especially where profitable mineral resources are scarce, and extraction and processing costs are high. However, over the last decades, the European Union’s response to these technological, productive, and geopolitical challenges has been slow and inconsistent, somehow moving in the opposite direction to major competitors, and positioning itself as a late follower in revitalising a sector that has undergone major technological and productive transformations elsewhere in the world.
With recent initiatives such as the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), under the umbrella of the Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA), the EU has shown a regained interest in the sector. At the same time, the strategy appears more focused on attracting business investment to expand domestic supply than on rebuilding the upstream capabilities needed for primary raw-material extraction and production in a more sustainable fashion. The geography of mining technologies and the factors driving their development remain largely understudied at the European level, preventing a clear understanding of how the strategies can foster innovation and support the EU’s potential to expand and diversify the supply of Strategic and Critical Raw Materials. In this paper we analyse the determinants of the development in mining technologies, considering them across distinct technological subcategories and adopting a geographical perspective on European regions.
Prof. Hajime Takatsuka
Full Professor
Osaka Metropolitan University
Mobile Capital, Rent Shifting, and Inefficiency Source of Policy Equilibrium
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Prof. Hajime Takatsuka (p)
Abstract
As shown in recent comments of US President Donald Trump, tariffs are now seen as a policy tool for attracting capital, which is expected to lead to an increase in the number and size of firms, and therefore employment. The present study focuses the rent-shifting effect of trade taxes via attracting capital, and examines each country's taxing behavior, the equilibrium, and its efficiency. Specifically, by using a monopolistic-competition model with rent shifting via mobile capital, I examine effects and equilibrium of import, export, and capital taxes of two countries, and then clarify the inefficiency source of policy equilibrium. The results are as follows. First, capital taxes have both aspects of import and export taxes in the present model, and, hence, three tax instruments are redundant and any two of them are sufficient for each government to maximize welfare. Second, the Nash equilibrium is inefficient, and larger countries tend to taxes to raise world prices of their products, while smaller countries tend to impose taxes to raise local relative prices of imported varieties. Third, although rent-shifting externalities appear in the model, a first-best resource allocation can be achieved only without terms-of-trade (TOT) manipulations, because, for exporting countries without TOT motives, setting taxes such that world prices of their products are equal to marginal costs is optimal.
Dr. Jorge M. Lopez Alvarez
Senior Researcher
European Commission - JRC
Assessing vulnerabilities in the European Union: A Territorial and Industrial Analysis of EU Trade Exposure using FIGARO-REG and CARMEN
Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)
Dr. Jorge Manuel Lopez Alvarez (p), Dr. Jose M. Rueda-Cantuche, Dr. Luis Pedauga, Ms. Alba Catalan
Abstract
In a geopolitical climate of escalating US-China trade tensions, the European Union faces substantial risks due to its deep integration with both actors. This study assesses EU's trade dependencies across three levels—EU-wide, national, and territorial at NUTS2 level in a globalised scenario—providing a granular industrial breakdown of how global trade shifts impact in the territory.
The analytical framework uses FIGARO-REG a comprehensive multiregional input-output table that covers 288 NUTS2 regions and 16 major non-EU trading partners across 56 industries. The methodology is powered by CARMEN, a modular model developed by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) that integrates diverse input-output approaches in a modular way. Allowing, in this case the quantification of the Chinese valued added content in exports to the US through a Trade in Value added analysis, detecting the more impacted industries and regions.
At the EU level, industries such as motor vehicles, machinery, equipment, and computer and electronics are significantly reliant on Chinese value-added components. China's share of foreign value-added content in these sectors is substantial, making them potentially vulnerable to changes in US trade policy directed at goods with high Chinese content.
The national analysis reveals a striking dichotomy: while Germany and France account for over half of the total CVA in EU-to-US exports in absolute terms, Eastern European nations—including Estonia, Hungary, Poland, and Czechia—demonstrate the highest relative dependency. In these countries, over 20% of export value is generated in China, underscoring strategic vulnerabilities that may result in adverse economic outcomes in the event of escalating trade barriers.
On the regional front, our findings identify specific areas like Stuttgart and Upper Bavaria in Germany; Ile-de-France in France; and North Brabant in the Netherlands as holding a relevant amount of Chinese value-added content in exports. Additionally, regions in Ireland, such as the Southern, and Eastern and Midland regions, stand out, particularly in sectors like digital technologies and computer-related services.
Furthermore, this study reveals a better understanding of the territorial disparities. The granularity of the model highlights how international trade tensions are not distributed uniformly but rather concentrated in specific industrial clusters.
The analytical framework uses FIGARO-REG a comprehensive multiregional input-output table that covers 288 NUTS2 regions and 16 major non-EU trading partners across 56 industries. The methodology is powered by CARMEN, a modular model developed by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) that integrates diverse input-output approaches in a modular way. Allowing, in this case the quantification of the Chinese valued added content in exports to the US through a Trade in Value added analysis, detecting the more impacted industries and regions.
At the EU level, industries such as motor vehicles, machinery, equipment, and computer and electronics are significantly reliant on Chinese value-added components. China's share of foreign value-added content in these sectors is substantial, making them potentially vulnerable to changes in US trade policy directed at goods with high Chinese content.
The national analysis reveals a striking dichotomy: while Germany and France account for over half of the total CVA in EU-to-US exports in absolute terms, Eastern European nations—including Estonia, Hungary, Poland, and Czechia—demonstrate the highest relative dependency. In these countries, over 20% of export value is generated in China, underscoring strategic vulnerabilities that may result in adverse economic outcomes in the event of escalating trade barriers.
On the regional front, our findings identify specific areas like Stuttgart and Upper Bavaria in Germany; Ile-de-France in France; and North Brabant in the Netherlands as holding a relevant amount of Chinese value-added content in exports. Additionally, regions in Ireland, such as the Southern, and Eastern and Midland regions, stand out, particularly in sectors like digital technologies and computer-related services.
Furthermore, this study reveals a better understanding of the territorial disparities. The granularity of the model highlights how international trade tensions are not distributed uniformly but rather concentrated in specific industrial clusters.