Dr. Francesco Scotti (p), Dr. Giulia Palma

This study evaluates the impact of the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) funds targeting the Transition 4.0 on firm-level productivity and employment. Leveraging firm-level data and employing a combination of panel event studies and continuous two-way fixed effects models, we find evidence that NRRP funds positively influence both total factor productivity (tfp) and employment. Firms receiving Transition 4.0 support experience an average tfp increase of 16.9–17.8% and an employment growth of around 15.2–15.8%. We also discuss that investments in employee training and upskilling may represent the mechanism through which firms achieve tfp and employment gains. Sectoral heterogeneity reveals that ICT and Wholesale Trade firms benefit the most. Importantly, machine learning-based feature importance analyses validate the role of NRRP funding as a key driver of performance improvements. These findings challenge the trade-off between automation and employment, showing that the Transition 4.0 can boost both competitiveness and employment. The results offer policy-relevant insights for designing inclusive and productivity-enhancing digital transformation strategies.

Prof. Daniel Ruiz Romera (p), Dr. Filippo di Pietro, Prof. Belén Martín Castro

This paper investigates the causal effects of the Italian "PMI Innovativa" (Innovative SME) certification on firm performance across multiple dimensions, including intangible assets, patenting activity, R&D investment, and equity capitalization. Using a comprehensive panel dataset of Italian small and medium-sized enterprises from 2015 to 2023, we employ a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation strategy to identify the treatment effects of certification, controlling for firm-level characteristics and unobserved heterogeneity through firm/sector and year fixed effects.

Importantly, this study explores the spatial heterogeneity of innovation policy effects by analyzing the geographical distribution of certified firms across Italian regions. We examine whether regional factors—including the concentration of industrial clusters, regional R&D intensity, local institutional quality, and economic development levels—moderate the impact of the PMI Innovativa certification. Our regional analysis incorporates NUTS-2 regional fixed effects and investigates potential regional clustering of innovation outcomes.

Our findings reveal that PMI Innovativa certification generates significant positive effects across all outcome variables. Certified firms experience an average increase of €307.2 thousand in equity compared to the control group, alongside substantial gains in intangible assets, R&D expenditure, and patent activity. The regional analysis indicates significant spatial heterogeneity, with Northern Italian regions—particularly Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna—exhibiting stronger certification effects, likely due to denser innovation ecosystems and more developed financial markets. Placebo tests confirm the validity of our identification strategy, showing no significant pre-treatment effects for most outcomes. These results have important implications for regional innovation policy, suggesting that the effectiveness of SME certification programs depends substantially on the local economic and institutional context. Policymakers should consider complementary regional interventions to maximize the impact of national innovation policies in less developed areas.

Ms Hongrui Jiao (p)

Firm entry is widely recognized as an important source of industrial dynamism and regional economic growth, as new firms introduce novel technologies, business models, and competitive pressures. However, firm entry also poses potential threats to incumbent firms, which may respond by increasing innovation investment to strengthen their technological advantages and raise entry barriers. While such innovation activities can enhance productivity, they may simultaneously deter potential entrants by signaling intensified competition and reduced market accessibility. Consequently, innovation by incumbent firms constitutes a key obstacle to new firm entry.
Recent studies suggest that digital government can facilitate firm entry by improving the business environment, reducing information asymmetries, and lowering transaction costs. Through digital platforms, potential entrants can gain better access to policy information, government services, and market opportunities. Nevertheless, these benefits are not exclusive to new firms. Incumbent firms may also leverage digital government to access public information and policy resources more efficiently, potentially reinforcing their innovative advantages and crowding out potential entrants.
This paper examines the ambiguous effects of digital government on firm entry by explicitly considering the role of incumbent firms’ innovation. Using China’s Internet Plus Government Services initiative as a quasi-natural experiment, we construct a theoretical framework that links digital government, incumbent innovation, and firm entry. Employing panel data from Chinese prefecture-level cities over the period 2010–2024, we provide empirical evidence on how digital government influences firm entry both directly and indirectly through incumbent firms’ innovation activities.
The findings provide critical policy insights for global digital governance, emphasizing the need to balance the promotion of institutional efficiency with the prevention of innovation-based exclusion to ensure sustainable and inclusive regional growth.