Dr. Anita Schiller (p)

Industrial pollution has declined in many high-income countries, yet it remains unclear whether these gains have reduced local environmental inequalities. We analyse the distribution of industrial pollution across neighbourhoods in England and Wales using facility-level data from the United Kingdom Pollutant Release and Transfer Register between 2009 and 2019. Reported emissions of regulated pollutants released to air, land, and water are combined into a common human-toxicity metric and linked to neighbourhood socioeconomic characteristics. Despite substantial national emission reductions, the spatial distribution of pollution exposure remains highly persistent: neighbourhoods that were most exposed at the start of the period remain among the most exposed a decade later. Industrial pollution shows a non-linear relationship with income, with chemical toxicity peaking in middle-income neighbourhoods and particulate matter most concentrated in lower-income areas. Higher educational attainment is consistently associated with lower levels of pollution.

Mr Johannes Lohwasser (p), Mr Axel Schaffer, Mr Sangwon Choi

Land take constitutes a major driver of soil degradation and climate-related risks. While land-use decisions are mainly shaped at the municipal level, empirical evidence on the local and spatially interdependent drivers of land take remains limited. This study examines the anthropogenic determinants of land take using a spatially extended STIRPAT framework applied to panel data from 1,600 municipalities in Bavaria, Germany, covering the period from 2014–2022. A Spatial Durbin Error Model is employed to account for spatial dependence and spillover effects across neighboring municipalities. Moreover, literature defines affluence typically as income or GDP per capita indicating the level of affluence of private households or regions. In contrast to, the results of this paper demonstrate that (also) public affluence is a suitable indicator for explaining land take. The results show that population and public affluence exert positive local effects on land take, while urban density significantly restrains land take. Moreover, a non-linear Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship for public affluence is observed, which materializes also through spatial spillover effects. Building permissions emerge as a key policy-related driver, generating positive indirect effects that propagate land consumption across adjacent municipalities. These findings highlight that land take is not only shaped by local conditions but evolves as a spatially interconnected process driven by fiscal capacity and planning decisions. The study underscores the need for coordinated, multi-regional land-use policies and highlights the analytical value of small-scale spatial STIRPAT applications in capturing environmentally relevant development dynamics.

Mr Sangmin Lee (p), Mr Wooyoung Choi, Ms Yewon Choi, Mr Donghwi Kim, Mr Donghwan An, Mr Kwansoo Kim

Extreme weather events associated with climate change, particularly heatwaves, have become increasingly frequent and are characterized by heightened volatility and tail risk. As climate change amplifies heatwave exposure, governments have expanded adaptation efforts. However, the literature on heatwave adaptation policies and technologies exhibits two limitations. First, most studies rely on static, backward-looking analyses based on historical data, constraining their ability to manage evolving climate risks proactively. Because future heatwave exposure will differ across climate pathways, systematic scenario-based evaluation is essential. Second, despite the distributional features of climate risk, assessments remain largely mean-centered. Economic losses from extreme events often escalate nonlinearly, with a small number of large realizations accounting for a disproportionate share of aggregate damages. As loss distributions become increasingly fat-tailed, analyses focused solely on average risk understating both the magnitude and variability of climate-related damages. This study evaluates the economic performance of urban heatwave adaptation technologies under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios—SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0. Heatwave damages are monetized, and future loss trajectories are projected using a Heatwave Resilience Index (HWRI). To address uncertainty, we incorporate a risk premium reflecting reductions in damage variance, thereby establishing a decision criterion consistent with rational policy choice under uncertainty. The empirical analysis employs a balanced panel of 229 municipal districts in South Korea over 2016–2022. Key explanatory variables include the HWRI—capturing adaptive capacity and vulnerability reduction—and the installed capacity of major heatwave adaptation technologies (cooling fog systems, cool roofs, rooftop and wall greening, and shading infrastructure). The HWRI integrates economic, social, physical, governance, and demographic indicators to quantify local heat-response and recovery capacity. Climate variables include the 95th percentile of daily maximum Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and the number of days exceeding 27°C WBGT, linked to SSP-based projections. Holding current socioeconomic structures, resilience levels, and adaptation technology stocks fixed at baseline values, we simulate prospective damages under alternative climate pathways. A panel regression–based forecasting model estimates technology-specific marginal benefits, from which scenario-specific Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds (CETs) and Benefit–Cost Ratios (BCRs) are derived. We further quantify variance reductions in projected damages to estimate the associated risk premium. The results show that economically viable conditions for urban adaptation technologies vary systematically across climate scenarios, generating shifts in optimal investment priorities. By integrating forward-looking climate pathways with uncertainty-adjusted evaluation, the framework provides an objective basis for climate-resilient urban policy and strengthens the credibility of long-term adaptation strategies.