Mr Francesco Molica (p), Dr Anabela Santos

The proposal on Cohesion Policy post-2027 features an enhanced focus on strategic objectives (i.e. achieving leadership in emerging technologies such as AI and clean tech, strengthening defence capabilities, etc.) and a shift towards more top-down governance. This approach draws on the recent experience of the NextGenerationEU instrument and aligns with the strategic competitiveness agenda highlighted in the Draghi Report.

However, can this renewed strategic orientation be reconciled with the traditional objective of Cohesion Policy to foster regional convergence?

This paper investigates this question through the lens of green innovation investment policies. There is limited research systematically exploring these policies from a territorial perspective. The paper addresses this gap by analysing the effects of EU green R&D investments under Cohesion Policy and Horizon 2020, used as proxies for place-based and place-neutral green innovation policies, on regional environmental (green) patenting levels. The empirical analysis relies on a double/debiased machine learning framework based on post-double-selection LASSO.

The results show that green innovation policies have significant but highly heterogeneous effects. Positive impacts are largely concentrated in more developed and innovative regions. By contrast, no statistically significant causal effects on green patenting are found in less developed and less innovative regions, which already display substantially weaker green innovation capacities.

This evidence highlights the risk that a stronger emphasis of Cohesion Policy on new strategic priorities such as promoting green technologies may achieve very little in relation to the objective of regional convergence if adequate enabling conditions are not in place. Moreover, place-based (Cohesion Policy) and place-neutral (Horizon 2020) subsidies appear to exhibit substitution effects, which may further reduce policy additionality and undermine the coherence of the EU innovation policy mix.

Overall, the paper underscores the importance of strengthening regional innovation ecosystems and framework conditions to ensure that green innovation policies contribute not only to competitiveness but also to convergence.

Prof. Roberta Arbolino (p), Dr Raffaele Boffardi, Prof. Paolo Di Caro, Prof. Marco Martorana

Raising geopolitical threats and economic linkages can influence the effectiveness of regional development policies with geographical differences. We construct novel trade-adjusted measures of exposure to geopolitical risk for the European regions and present evidence on the changes of cohesion policy impact driven by geopolitical issues over the past two decades. Our findings indicate that the adverse effects of geopolitical risk on cohesion policy effectiveness vary across and within European countries. Territorial divergences are explained by differences in regional positioning in global value chains and foreign direct investments. Policy implications are finally discussed.

Dr. Julia Bachtrögler-Unger (p)

This reflection paper examines the influence of administrative capacity on the absorption and effective use of Cohesion Policy funds. First, it examines the current level of absorption of Cohesion Policy funds in the 2014-2020 programming period. Second, a literature review on the relationship between administrative capacity and the absorption of Cohesion Policy funds highlights the factors affecting the availability of administrative resources. Third, the role of administrative capacity for the effectiveness of funds usage in EU regions is discussed.
The literature concludes that the effects of Cohesion Policy are heterogeneous across regions. Administrative capacity is an important element of a region's absorptive capacity, also due to the project selection process through managing authorities. Therefore, measures should be taken to attract motivated and well-qualified staff and to ensure communication and coordination with stakeholders and other relevant bodies. Finally, a recent study on regional development opportunities of green and digital technologies is presented, pointing to the knowledge of administrative staff about regional characteristics and capabilities as essential contribution to "good" policy implementation.

Dr. Debora Gambina (p), Prof. Fabio Mazzola (p)

This work investigates the drivers of time-efficient execution of projects financed under the NGEU in the Italian case. Drawing on project-level data from the ItaliaDomani and OpenPNRR databases and employing survival analysis techniques, we examine the effects of regional context factors on project execution time. Moreover, we assess whether centralized or decentralized implementation is associated with faster execution and explore potential non-linear impact of institutional quality according to the different implementing bodies. In addition, we consider project-level characteristics including co-financing with other funding sources. Our main results indicate that territorial features play a crucial role in explaining time efficiency. In particular, institutional quality, development level and agglomeration economies emerge as key determinants, alongside centralized project implementation especially in regions with weaker institutional capacity. These findings may provide ex-ante insights into the effectiveness of NGEU and offer policy implications for the design of the 2028-34 EU cohesion policy.