Prof. Andrea Antonio Caragliu (p), Prof. Roberto Dellisanti

The current geopolitical landscape is highly fragmented and complex. It is characterized by rising tensions, shifting alliances, and by a largely uncertain global governance. This turbulence has dire consequences, especially at territorial level: it may contribute to widening interregional disparities.
Prior ex ante assessments of the way these instabilities may find a solution suggest that a scenario with the EU deepening its internal integration, coupled with tighter global economic linkages (Integration scenario), would yield stronger economic performance, associated with smaller increases in cross-country disparities. By contrast, a scenario with looser internal integration within the EU, coupled with a fragmented global economy (Fragmentation scenario), would bring about comparatively larger within-country disparities, as slower economic expansion would keep internal inequality more contained.

In this paper we propose a set of simulations aiming at disentangle the role played by pre-market, in-market, and post-market factors in driving regional inequalities. Simulations are based on the fifth generation of the MAcroeconometric Social Sectoral Territorial (MASST5) model.

Our results suggest a mosaic of often contradictory effects. Should either state of the world depicted in the two scenarios prevail, our simulation results provide a detailed picture of the mechanisms driving overall results, thereby informing policy interventions aiming at minimizing the negative effects of specific development patterns.

Dr. Maureen Lankhuizen (p), Dr. Thomas de Graaff, Professor dr. Henri de Groot

This paper discusses the potential for an evidence-based EU cohesion policy cycle inspired by the recommendations of Barca (2009), where ex-ante modelling exercises continuously learn from ex-post evaluations from previous studies on the effectiveness of past policy interventions. We argue that meta-analysis could be an ideal tool to combine all prior knowledge and update key parameters for subsequent spatial general equilibrium and scenario modelling. To illustrate this potential, we apply a systematic literature review of nine recent EU policies and initiatives with explicit spatial impacts that could be synergetic with the EU cohesion policy. Our findings reveal at best a very limited availability of econometric ex-post impact assessments or policy evaluations for most of the policies that we consider. Especially studies with a causal design are almost non-existing. We therefore signal a strong need for more ex-post primary impact evaluations that are essential for the ambition to learn from and improve upon policy practices in financially one of the largest policy domains of the European Union.

Prof. Katarzyna Kopczewska (p), Prof. Martin Andersson, Ms Monika Kot, Dr Maria Kubara

Regional economic resilience is widely acknowledged as a multidimensional and spatially uneven process, yet most empirical studies continue to treat regions as homogeneous units. This paper advances a micro-spatial perspective on resilience by arguing that regional resilience emerges from the resilience of local neighbourhoods and industrial ecosystems. We introduce the Local Industrial Resilience Index (LIRI), a novel grid-level measure that captures how resistance, recovery, renewal, and reorientation jointly shape adaptive capacity at the sub-regional scale. Using geo-referenced firm-level data for the Warsaw metropolitan region (Mazowieckie Voivodeship, Poland), we operationalize resilience on a 2 × 2 km grid over the period 2012–2021, allowing us to uncover patterns that remain invisible in aggregate regional analyses

Methodologically, LIRI integrates firm survival and birth dynamics with detailed measures of local industrial structure, including specialisation, diversity, concentration, and related variety. Resistance and recovery are derived from deviations between observed and expected firm survival and entry, while renewal and reorientation capture the degree to which new firms branch into related or unrelated activities. This multidimensional framework explicitly balances short-term robustness with longer-term adaptability. By grounding resilience in firm-level behaviour and local industrial relatedness, the index provides a micro-founded and spatially fine-grained measure of industrial resilience.

Empirical results show that resilience does not follow a simple core–periphery pattern. While the Warsaw core exhibits high resilience, several medium-sized towns also display strong adaptive capacity, whereas many peripheral and mono-industrial neighbourhoods remain structurally vulnerable. Related variety emerges as a key driver of local resilience, fostering both firm survival and adaptive renewal, while high sectoral concentration consistently undermines resilience across all dimensions. These findings demonstrate that regional resilience is an emergent property of interconnected local industrial ecosystems rather than a function of scale or density alone. The paper contributes to evolutionary economic geography and resilience research by offering a transferable measurement framework and provides actionable insights for place-based, ecosystem-oriented regional policy.

Ms Anabela Santos (p), Francesco Molica, Andrea Conte

The establishment of more research networks in Europe is considered critical to achieve more strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty in strategic area. There is however, little empirical research on how such networks can advance these objectives and under what conditions. The paper assesses the impact of technology-specific EU-funded research networks on patent activity, using artificial intelligence as a case study. By combining the entropy balancing matching approach and weighted least squares regression, together with regional data, we found a robust positive effect of AI-funded research networks on AI-patenting activities between 2013 and 2021. While the network strength exhibits a monotonic relationship with patent activities, the effect of network centrality, capturing quality and prestige, follows an inverted-U-shaped pattern highlighting the need for more widespread networks beyond major hubs. The level of development, sectoral concentration and the degree of innovativeness further amplifies the magnitude of these effects. In addition, we find evidence of knowledge and technological spillovers from AI-funded research networks to other areas of patenting, notably biotech and environmental innovation. Several policy implications can be drawn from these findings. First, EU programmes aimed at fostering interregional innovation collaborations, most notably Horizon Europe, should be further strengthened as part of the broader policy agenda to advance strategic autonomy. In this respect, the European Commission’s proposal to increase the future budget of Horizon is consistent with the need to reinforce cross-border knowledge linkages in strategic technological domains. Second, policy efforts should not only increase the intensity of collaborations but also encourage a wider diffusion of network linkages beyond the current core of highly central hubs. Evidence about diminishing marginal returns related to excessive centrality suggests that overly concentrated network structures may limit additional innovation benefits.