Prodromos Prodromidis (p)

Yuhyun Sung

As birth rates fall below the population replacement threshold in many parts of the world for the first time in ages, they cause considerable concern at the local, regional, national and international level. As a result, the EU Commission (2023) has presented the member states with a set of policy tools for managing demographic change, and the OECD’s (2024) has issued guidelines to prepare local communities for the demographic change. The paper looks into the spatial distribution of the new birth cohorts across the EU-27 in 2024 (as provided by Eurostat) and across Greece (based on the country’s 2021 census), and empirically analyzes the population shares. The estimated parameters of the explanatory factors employed suggest that there is room for diversified policy interventions and responses.

Yuhyun Sung (p), In Kwon Park

Eva Výrostová

Declining birthrates have become an undeniable global megatrend. In South Korea, the total fertility rate stands at 0.8, significantly below the OECD average of 1.6. The prolonged low fertility rate has led to a population decline, exacerbating concerns about social sustainability. This phenomenon stems from various factors, including structural issues such as job insecurity and high housing costs, individual challenges such as difficulties in balancing work and family, and economic burdens associated with childcare. Similar trends can be observed in other countries, where the burden of childcare is recognized as a major contributor to declining birthrates and a key factor influencing fertility decisions (Commission on Fertility and Ageing, 2023).
The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated inequalities in childcare availability, reinforcing the perception that childcare is a shared societal responsibility rather than an individual burden. While previous policies have focused on expanding childcare services and facilities, spatial aspects of childcare environments remain underexplored. Existing studies tend to emphasize local case studies or housing conditions, lacking broader empirical analyses on the relationship between urban environments and childcare satisfaction.
This study conducts a hierarchical linear model (HLM) analysis based on a survey of 2,900 residents in Seoul with preschool-aged children. Individual-level factors include the child’s age, gender, caregiving method, childcare hours, and housing type, while neighborhood-level factors include libraries, parks and playgrounds, road quality, vacancy rates, and street greenery. The study examines how these factors shape childcare environment satisfaction and proposes key components for a ‘childcare-friendly environment.’
Expected results are as follows: childcare satisfaction is higher among parents with older children, male children, those providing direct parental care, and those with shorter childcare hours. At the neighborhood level, satisfaction increases with improved childcare infrastructure, better accessibility, reduced road occupation, lower housing vacancy rates, and more street greenery. Through empirical evidence, this study demonstrates the link between urban environment and childcare satisfaction, emphasizing that childcare is a collective societal responsibility. The findings suggest policy recommendations for developing childcare-friendly urban spaces and offer insights for childcare policy and urban planning across different countries.

Eva Výrostová (p)

Francisco J. Velazquez

The proportion of older people in European countries is increasing, impacting various aspects of society, including health and social systems, social infrastructure, productivity, economic growth, and quality of life. Promoting healthy ageing can enhance the labour supply, reduce early retirement, alleviate pressure on health and social care systems, and enable older individuals to contribute meaningfully to their families and communities. Consequently, healthy ageing is a significant area of research.

Healthy ageing is a multifaceted concept that includes the absence of chronic diseases, good mental and physical functioning, normal cognitive function, and active social participation. The WHO defines healthy ageing as “the process of developing and maintaining the functional ability that enables wellbeing in older age.”

This research study aims to evaluate the determinants of healthy ageing at a regional level, focusing on the social and physical environment while controlling for personal characteristics (e.g., age, gender, income, education, socio-economic and marital status). We combine individual-level data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) with Eurostat data. The study aims to identify key drivers contributing to healthy ageing, and discuss their policy implications.

The work was supported from ERDF/ESF project Ageing of the population and related challenges for health and social systems (AGEING-CZ) (No. CZ.02.01.01/00/23_025/0008743).

Francisco J. Velazquez (p), David Martín-Barroso, Juan Andrés Núñez-Serrano

Prodromos Prodromidis

The objective of this paper is to understand and classify the depopulation process of rural Spain into different components and find some structural determinants for this tendency. Firstly, it aims to differentiate between areas (municipalities) that have experienced a historical and ongoing depopulation process over time, and those where depopulation is a more recent, though accelerated, phenomenon. This initial classification helps establish a typology, which leads to a second analysis of the determinants. In the first type of areas, the determinants are "more" structural, derived from their location, and are responsible for the depopulation process. In the second type, the determinants must be sought in the same factors, but in reverse, explaining the population concentration process in cities. In this regard, depopulation is considered the opposite side of agglomeration in cities.

To carry out the analysis, all Spanish population censuses since 1856 have been homogenized, along with the 1842 "quasi-census" – Madoz's dictionary – using the municipal definition of 2020. While other attempts at homogenization have been made, this is the only one that incorporates, with a modern municipal definition, the data available for the 19th century. The aim is to ensure that the observed population trends are not interrupted merely by a methodological change in census preparation (1900) that does not significantly affect the population count. As a result, a historical series of municipal-level population data is available from 1850 to 2020, with decennial information. This is the data initially used to classify the depopulation process. Additionally, as location variables, all physical characteristics – coordinates, altitude, ruggedness, coast, etc. – are available, along with other interaction-related variables such as a market potential measure calculated for each available cross-section, although not related to infrastructure due to the lack of this information.

The provisional results, available at this time, confirm the relevance of some of the location factors, as previously described, in the depopulation process, particularly those related to municipalities showing very long-term historical trends in this regard. Regarding agglomeration factors, two results are evident in some of the specifications. The first is the relevance of market potential, which is a measure that combines the distance to other municipalities along with their population, in the depopulation process, especially in areas where this situation is more recent and intense. The second is that certain population thresholds in the municipalities themselves act as a brake on depopulation.