Daria Denti (p), Paolo Veneri

Emmanouil Tranos

This paper examines how post-2010 austerity-driven spatial reorganization of public services in England affected community social cohesion and well-being. Using a novel panel dataset tracking changes in essential services (courts, pharmacies, schools, and childcare facilities) across English local authorities from early 2000s to 2019, we combine georeferenced administrative data with service performance metrics and Understanding Society survey responses. Our identification strategy uses two quasi-experimental variations: the staggered timing of service reorganizations and the administrative rule for merging facilities with their closest counterparts. Through staggered difference-in-differences analysis, we examine how facility closures impacted social cohesion trajectories and service quality, and investigate whether service quality changes mediated social cohesion outcomes.

Tasos Kitsos (p), Francisco Nobre , Emmanouil Tranos, Chiara Paola Donegani

Daria Denti

We look into the relationship between gambling shops and gambling harms. Harmful gambling is an increasingly recognised public health issue. 3.8% of England’s population gambles at an “elevated risk” of addiction; 250,000 people in England have an addiction to gambling and these are linked with up to 500 suicides every year and up to £2 billion cost to the society.
On similar health concerns such as obesity, there is evidence that the geographic proximity to unhealthy food options (i.e. fast food) is a contributing factor. For gambling, such evidence is scant due to data constraints both on the location of gambling shops and the prevalence of gambling harms.
We utilise the Gambling Commission’s geocoded data on the location of gambling shops and match these to the GambleAware Treatment and Support Survey Data. Doing this allows us to shed light into the relationship between the presence of gambling venues and gambling harms in the UK. Specifically, we investigate how proximity to gambling shops influences the likelihood of an individual being classed as a problematic gambler while controlling for several confounders.
Our analysis starts by providing a rich set of descriptive statistics on the intensity of gambling shops across the country and its evolution since 2014. Continuing, we employ probit models that explore the relationship between gambling shops and gambling harms.
Initial findings show that proximity to gambling shops is positively associated to the probability of being a problematic gambler. These results are corroborated by robustness tests using propensity score matching and call for increased attention on the regulatory framework for gambling venues.

Emmanouil Tranos (p), Luning Li, Mirah Zhu

Nino Javakhishvili-larsen

High Streets, the main commercial streets in towns and cities, have undergone significant transformations due to the evolving urban retail landscape. Despite these changes, this study demonstrates that the presence of gambling venues in Great Britain remained remarkably stable between 2014 and 2023. Using Points of Interest data, we constructed a panel dataset of gambling shops on high streets. Employing simple autoregressive models estimated with random forests, we predicted annual gambling frequencies during 2015–2023 using 2014 frequencies as the sole predictor. Our results show a predictive accuracy of 91.8% by 2019, which remained robust at 86.2% in 2023, even after the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This highlights the notable stability in the frequency of gambling shops on high streets. Additionally, we developed a two-tiered analytical framework that confirmed this stability across different types of local authorities and high streets. Given the geographically bounded negative externalities of gambling, these findings provide a comprehensive understanding of the evolving spatial footprint of gambling shops. They also offer broader insights into how retail environment characteristics influence the resilience of leisure businesses in diverse urban contexts, contributing to ongoing discussions on high street revitalization.

Going a step further, we employ a large survey to assess whether accessibility to such 'brick and mortar' gambling shops is associated with online gambling behaviours. The underpinning argument is that gambling shops could act as advertising points for gambling activities and, therefore, proximity to such outlets can be associated with increased online gambling behaviour. The survey data allow us to create such proximity and gambling accessibility indicators for the survey participants. We then build multilevel models to assess the potential link between online gambling behaviour and accessibility to gambling shops. Our early findings illustrate an absence of such a relationship. Instead, we observe a bimodal gambling population with online gamblers not being attracted by and affected by accessibility to brick and mortar gambling shops.

Nino Javakhishvili-larsen (p), Bence Bøje-Kovacs

Tasos Kitsos

This paper investigates the relationship between the rise of remote work (WFH) and its impact on crime rates, particularly burglary and different street crimes. Utilizing Danish microdata for crime and applying the WFH index developed for the Danish labour force (Javakhishvili-Larsen et al. 2023 ), we analyse the effects of increased WFH on neighbourhood-level crime rates. Our study addresses whether the pandemic has created positive side effects for society, specifically if remote work enhances safety by reducing burglaries and street crime in Danish neighbourhoods. Finally, we investigate to what extent improved safety in the neighbourhood is capitalized in housing prices.
Building on findings from the UK and US, where significant burglary reductions were observed, we examine if similar patterns exist in Denmark. We explore spatial heterogeneity, investigating whether the crime-reducing benefits of WFH are offset in neighbourhoods surrounded by high-WFH areas, consistent with a spatial search model of criminal activity. Additionally, we analyse spatial spillovers and compare WFH's impact on crime in different types of settlements, such as single family detached housing areas vs. apartment blocks, low-income vs. high-income residential areas, etc.
Our methodology involves merging Danish registry data identifying the location of the committed/reported crime with comprehensive demographic and socioeconomic neighbourhood-level data including information about WFH and house prices. The data is derived from annual administrative register data from Statistics Denmark between 2010 and 2023. This approach allows for a comprehensive analysis of the interplay between remote work, crime rates, and neighbourhood safety, considering the socioeconomic characteristics of the neighbourhood residents.
This study contributes to the existing literature in several ways, firstly, it addresses the knowledge gap regarding the effects of the pandemic and transformative changes in work patterns, particularly the increasing prevalence of WFH. Secondly, it enhances understanding of neighbourhood safety, providing valuable insights for policymakers and urban planners in designing future neighbourhoods. Thirdly, it offers a comparative perspective by examining these trends in the Danish context, adding to the growing body of international research on this topic. Fourthly, it investigates the differential impact of WFH on various types of crimes, not limited to burglary, offering a more holistic view of remote work's effect on public safety. And lastly, it analyses the socioeconomic factors that may influence the effectiveness of WFH in crime reduction, contributing to more targeted policy interventions.