Riccardo Curtale (p), Martijn Stut, Alfredo Alessandrini, Christophe Deuster, Filipe Batista e Silva, Fabrizio Natale, Lewis Dijkstra

Marcin Stonawski

The European Union is experiencing profound demographic shifts. This paper presents an analysis of observed population trends encompassing observations for the period 2000-2022 and projections until 2040 at the NUTS3 level. The projections were obtained by regionalizing the 2021 Ageing Report’s demographic projections using the Demography-Economy-Land use interaction (DELi) model, which considers explicitly the interlinkages between demographic and economic dynamics.
Results show that urban regions are expected to increase their populations primarily due to economic opportunities pulling migrants, while intermediate and rural regions are projected to face population decline, with remote rural regions being the most affected. The natural change rate is trending downwards across all regional typologies, while the net migration rate, historically positive in all typologies, is projected to compensate for the natural change only in urban regions. The implications of these demographic changes are far-reaching, affecting labour markets, public service provision, and economic growth. The paper discusses the potential for regional convergence in GDP per capita, particularly in rural regions close to cities, and the challenges posed by changes in the demographic structure, affected by increasing old age dependency ratio and a shrinking working-age population, and the need for adaptation.

Marcin Stonawski (p), Leo van Wissen (p)

Sofia Wixe

The European Union faces significant demographic challenges due to depopulation and ageing, driven by negative natural population change. At the regional level, migration—both internal and international—has become a key factor shaping population dynamics. This study examines the role of mobility of foreigners in population change across regions in Austria, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden from 2005 to 2022.

Findings show that 70% of analyzed regions experienced population growth, with 42% relying solely on mobility (national and international migration). Notably, in 26% of regions, growth was entirely driven by mobility of foreigners, particularly in Sweden (71%). No region experienced population decline due to foreign mobility alone. However, in 151 regions where depopulation occurred, positive foreign mobility was insufficient to offset negative natural change or native migration losses.

The study identifies five major regional demographic profiles based on population change and components of demographic change (natural change and mobility).

Mobility accounted for over 70% of population turnover, with significant regional differences. Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands exhibited high native mobility, while Austria and Spain relied more on foreign mobility. These findings highlight the crucial role of foreign mobility in mitigating demographic decline and emphasize the need for proper regional policies to address population challenges.

Sofia Wixe (p), Charlotta Mellander

Riccardo Curtale

Since the early 1990s, Sweden has undergone significant demographic changes, with the share of foreign-born increasing from approximately 10 percent to more than 20 percent of the population. During this time, the origins of immigrants have also shifted, with a growing proportion arriving from non-Western countries, often culturally distinct from Sweden (e.g., based on the World Values Survey). During the same time, the country has also seen a sharp rise in residential segregation, both in terms of foreign-born individuals and across socioeconomic dimensions. In this paper, we examine the extent to which the increase in socioeconomic segregation is linked to the changed immigration profile of the country. Our findings show a significant strengthening of the relationship between ethnic and socioeconomic segregation over time. Ethnic minorities, particularly non-Western immigrants, are increasingly concentrated in socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods characterized by poverty, unemployment, and low educational attainment. Additionally, we find that socioeconomic segregation has risen gradually alongside the growing share of immigrants, particularly non-Western immigrants, whose immediate arrival contributes to higher levels of residential segregation.