Niklas Elert (p), Anders Bornhäll

Giulio Breglia

Five percent of Sweden’s population lives in disadvantaged areas, i.e., areas with low socioeconomic status where criminal networks influence the local community. Yet, people’s sense of security and economic conditions are affected by crime at the local level also in other parts of the country.
Research has so far underestimated the fact that the relationship between crime and economic conditions is likely reciprocal. This oversight is problematic both in terms of the role that safety and access to essential resources in the local environment play in people’s development and in terms of the significance of business activity as the economic foundation of a local community.
Our research project addresses this knowledge gap by examining the reciprocal relationship between crime and economic opportunities at the local level. The goal is to generate knowledge that can guide efforts to improve safety and economic opportunities across Sweden, with a particular focus on the country’s disadvantaged areas.
Previous studies have chosen to control for the reciprocal relationship rather than placing it at the center of analysis. In contrast, we focus on this reciprocity and investigate how local economic opportunities and various types of crime influence each other over time in Swedish (DeSo) neighborhoods. We also examine which other variables—such as income levels, educational attainment, and migration patterns—strengthen or weaken the relationship between economic opportunities and crime in different areas.
Understanding how crime and economic conditions interact provides crucial insights into where society should allocate resources to counteract negative trends or reinforce positive developments. Acknowledging the policy implications of this research, we pose three key questions:
1. How do local economic conditions (e.g., business turnover, business entries and exits, industry composition, employment levels, and property values) affect crime in Swedish neighborhoods and districts?
2. How do different types of crime (e.g., violent crime, drug-related crime, and property crime) impact local economic opportunities in Swedish neighborhoods and districts?
3. Which other variables (e.g., income levels, population density, educational attainment, and migration patterns) influence the strength of the relationship between local economic opportunities and crime?
We answer these questions using econometric models that allow us to measure effect sizes while also identifying variables that influence the strength of the relationship. A deeper understanding of which factors affect the link between economic conditions and crime is likely essential for determining how to break negative spirals in different parts of the country.

Giulio Breglia (p), Marco Modica

Rami Saad

This paper develops a comprehensive, quantitative multi-shock, multi-layer resilience index for NUTS-2 level EU regions, addressing the pressing need for robust tools to assess and enhance regional adaptive capacity. The index builds on insights from a systematic literature review, adopting a multi-layer perspective that encompasses regions, firms, and households to capture the dynamics of resilience drivers and markers across economic, social, and environmental dimensions.
Data are sourced from Eurostat, Copernicus, and national statistical offices, integrating variables that reflect key aspects of resilience, such as economic stability, social cohesion, environmental vulnerability, infrastructures, and institutional capacity. The construction of the index employs advanced statistical methods, including principal component analysis, and incorporates principles from complex systems theory. The methodology conceptualizes resilience as an emergent property of interconnected systems, where interactions between variables and feedback loops are critical in shaping adaptive capacities. This dynamic approach aims to account for non-linear responses to shocks and cascading effects across layers.
The index is designed to be tested against a range of global and local shocks from the last decades, including the Covid-19 pandemic and major natural disasters, providing a critical evaluation of its capacity to capture regional differences in adaptive responses. Findings are expected to shed light on the factors that contribute to regional vulnerabilities and strengths, offering valuable insights into how different systems respond to complex and interlinked shocks.
This study represents a significant contribution to the resilience literature by providing a scalable, multi-layered tool for assessing regional adaptive capacity. It aims to inform policymakers and stakeholders in designing targeted interventions that enhance resilience at all levels, helping regions better prepare for and recover from future crises.

Boris Portnov, Rami Saad (p)

Giulio Cainelli

Understanding the directionality of relationships between artificial nighttime light at night (ALAN) and economic activity, which is normally captured by the gross domestic product (GDP), is important for regional economic analysis and policy development. However, the question is whether ALAN is a reliable predictor of economic growth or merely a byproduct of it. This study attempts to answer this question by examining the relationship between GDP and ALAN using data obtained from nighttime satellite observations and linking them to GDP records available for NUTS3 regions of the EU. The co-integrated data set covering the period between 2001 and 2021 was analysed using the Granger causality test. The test revealed that the relationship between GDP and ALAN varies depending on the satellite records used. For example, data for the 2001-2012 period obtained from the DSMP observations detected a bidirectional relationship between GDP and ALAN, suggesting that economic activity and artificial lights reinforce each other. However, the coefficient of GDP was higher than that of ALAN, indicating that the impact of GDP on ALAN was more pronounced than the reverse effect. However, more recent data for the 2013-2021 period obtained from the VIIRS satellite detected that GDP impacts ALAN, but not vice versa. We explain the results by diminishing marginal returns of artificial illumination, where the expansion and intensity of nighttime lights result from economic growth but reach saturation points in highly developed areas, reducing their role as an independent driver of economic activity. Therefore, GDP seems to be the factor that impacts ALAN, rather than the factor that influences GDP. This suggests that economic growth drives increased illumination, but once a certain level of development is reached, additional illumination does not necessarily indicate further economic expansion. These findings highlight the importance of dataset selection in regional studies to avoid wrongful bidirectionality assumptions, such as the idea that increasing nighttime light emissions necessarily lead to economic growth, without considering local economic conditions, energy efficiency improvements, or differences in sectoral composition. This has important implications for policy makers and urban planners, as it suggests that while nighttime lights can serve as a proxy for economic development, they should not be relied upon as a policy tool to stimulate economic growth.

Giulio Cainelli (p), Roberto Ganau, Nadiia Matsiuk

Niklas Elert

Historical institutional experiences are receiving growing attention as significant and persistent factors behind local development. Among the most important historical events are the French Revolution and Napoleon's conquests across many European regions. In this context, this study examines the long-term impact of Napoleonic rule on contemporary local development in Italy. Beginning with the First Italian Campaign (1796–1797), the French Army occupied the entire Italian peninsula, except Sardinia and Sicily. Under Napoleonic rule (1796–1814), Italian pre-unification states underwent a profound transformation, replacing pre-existing institutional and administrative structures with those introduced by the French authorities. Using municipality-level data and focusing specifically on the role of the Napoleonic Code, we empirically assess the lasting impact of this legacy. Preliminary results indicate a positive impact of these reforms on contemporary local development in Italy.