Steven Bond-Smith (p), Toan Nguyen, Duy-Anh Phan

Yutong Guo

We exploit exogenous agricultural income shocks in Vietnam to examine the role of internal migration in economic development. By studying richly detailed administrative data on all manufacturing plants, this study offers the first examination of the causal effects of internal migration on quantity-based firm productivity, as well as several other dimensions of manufacturing firm performance. Our analysis reveals that migration initially leads to lower marginal costs, prices, and wages within existing firms. However, we find no evidence of persistent impacts on quantity-based firm productivity, quantity per worker, revenue per worker, size, or capital intensity. Instead, excess labor is absorbed by new firm entry. Our findings suggest that in environments with low entry barriers, internal migration drives structural change and aggregate output growth primarily through firm creation, without impacting the productivity of incumbent firms.

Yutong Guo (p)

Nikitas Provatakis

Over 1,000 km² of rural land is acquired annually in China as part of the rapid industrialization and urbanization process, with varying amounts of compensation provided to millions of affected rural individuals. How does the generosity of land acquisition compensation shape migration patterns and outcomes of displaced rural individuals? This paper constructs a novel dataset of village-level land acquisition events in three central provinces of China between 2011 and 2015, together with population micro-census data to track migrants and observe outcomes at their destination. I exploit exogenous variations in land acquisition compensation, induced by agricultural income shocks at the time local governments set compensation bases, for identification. I find that, as per-capita compensations increase, migrants become more likely to move for resettlement rather than employment—for instance, they tend to reunite with relatives instead of relocating alone. This pattern is more pronounced among older and less-educated individuals. In contrast, land acquisition compensations do not appear to affect their housing and working conditions at their destination in the short run.

Nikitas Provatakis (p)

Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren

In recent years European countries and regions have faced an increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Previous research has explored and quantified the effect of natural disasters on labor market outcomes and on key socioeconomic variables, including the outflow of migrants. In this paper, we attempt to estimate the direct effect of natural disasters on the rates of migration of European countries and regions and confirm the existence of channels that indirectly mediate this effect. we introduce channels that have not received the appropriate attention in migration literature, particularly the real estate and sectoral composition channels. The results suggest that there is a positive link between natural disasters and outward migration. The robustness of this finding is confirmed with the inclusion of different measures of natural disasters, namely frequency and intensity. With regards to the proposed channels that mediate the effect on migration, we provide supportive evidence that housing and the sectoral composition act as intensifying factors.

Ayse Abbasoglu Ozgoren (p), Hilal Arslan, Alanur Çavlin, Peter Meister-Broekema, Becky Arnold

Tomasz Komornicki

The return migration-development nexus has been approached by optimistic and pessimistic theories and the dominant approach has changed in time. Although academic interest on return migration has been increasing in the last two decades and return migration makes up a high proportion of total migration flows in the world, the share of studies focusing on the impact of return migration on countries of origin is low and most of them are based on small-scale surveys or qualitative data. This study aims to contribute to the literature by analyzing the impact of return of Turkish migrants from Austria and the Netherlands on provincial development in Türkiye. To estimate return migration from Austria and the Netherlands, NUTS3 (province)-level stock data retrieved from Turkish Statistical Institution (TURKSTAT) is used. Other data from TURKSTAT, OECD and Eurostat on wellbeing indicators at the province level are used to construct a wellbeing index. The time frame used in the study is the 7-year period between 2015 and 2021. We use a Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimation accounting for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity, where the dependent variable is Well-Being Index (WBI), and its economic, environmental and health-related dimensions, separately, and our variable of interest is the share of return migrants in time-lagged form. Our preliminary findings derived from GLS estimations suggest that return migrants from Austria and the Netherlands have a positive and statistically significant impact on provincial well-being in Türkiye. This result remains consistent when the models are estimated separately for first-generation return migrants and descendants. Regarding the economic dimension, total return migration also exhibits a positive effect; however, this effect is primarily driven by the migration of descendants in Türkiye—individuals born in Austria or the Netherlands who hold Turkish citizenship. Conversely, migratory movements do not appear to be associated with the environmental dimension, as indicated by heat stress levels. Nevertheless, return migration from Austria and the Netherlands contributes to improvements in the health dimension.

Tomasz Komornicki (p), Rafał Wiśniewski, Andrzej Jakubowski, Barbara Szejgiec-Kolenda, Eugenia Maruniak

Steven Bond-Smith

Since the collapse of the bipolar world, the functions of Poland’s borders with the Russian Federation, Belarus and Ukraine have undergone dynamic transformations. These changes, driven by shifts in Poland’s geopolitical position and economic situation, have influenced both the scale and nature of cross-border mobility, making Poland an attractive destination for migration and tourism from its eastern neighbours.
In recent years, two unexpected and severe shocks have triggered profound but divergent changes. The first was the COVID-19 pandemic, which, through mobility restrictions, disrupted previously dynamic labour, education, and tourism markets in Poland. The second shock stems from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which has led to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. This crisis has resulted in the large-scale opening of the European Union’s external borders to several million Ukrainian refugees while simultaneously imposing further restrictions on citizens and businesses from Russia and Belarus. The rapid influx of refugees has posed significant challenges, affecting nearly all dimensions of Poland’s socio-economic landscape.
The presentation will outline the results of studies examining the impact of these two external shocks on: (a) border traffic, (b) the labour market, (c) education, and (d) tourism. In each case, the dynamics of change between 2019 and 2023 will be analysed, considering the evolving realities of Poland’s interactions with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, as well as the territorial distribution of cross-border flows in Poland.