Wladimir Cerda (p), Dusan Paredes

Lukáš Makovský

Recent evidence suggests that immigration effects can be absorbed through spatial mobility in long-term, but limited research exists in contexts where internal mobility is restricted and immigrant skills are imperfectly assimilated. The persistence of local mismatches becomes especially problematic when occupational downgrading among immigrants intensifies competition and worsens outcomes for low-skilled native workers.

This paper argue that the impact of immigration on local markets depends not only on the temporal horizon and spatial mobility adjustments, but also on how receiving economies integrate the skills of large immigrant inflows.

First, we propose a formal test for occupational downgrading and provide reduced-form evidence on the effects of increased immigrant participation in Chilean local labor markets segmented by occupation. Using a natural experiment —the Venezuelan crisis, which doubled the immigrant workforce in Chile between 2015 and 2017— we estimate immigration short-term effects on wages, employment and housing prices.

Our findings indicate that a rise in immigration reduces low-skill wages by 2.47% and low-skill employment by 4.74%, with no significant effects on high-skill workers. We also show that spatial mobility mitigates these effects, as workers relocate from areas highly exposed to immigration.

In the second part of the paper, we develop a dynamic spatial equilibrium model that incorporates simultaneous migration shocks of high- and low-skilled workers. The model shows how occupational downgrading amplifies the negative effects of labor supply shocks on low-skilled wages, increasing wage inequality and reducing the economy ability to correct initial imbalances.

Finally, we analyze wage dynamics assuming perfect assimilation of immigrant skills. In this scenario, the share of immigrants in low-skill occupations decreases from approximately 8% to 4%. Our simulations indicate that the adverse effects on low-skill wages are halved, and GDP increase by 1.32% in the long run as a result of the absence of occupational downgrading on immigrants.

Therefore, valuing immigrant skills and reducing institutional frictions are essential. The current laissez-faire approach to downgrading in Chile hampers the mitigation of adverse effects on wages from migration.

Lukáš Makovský (p), Capucine Riom

Jayati Das

We investigate the effects of planning constraints on housing affordability and inter-city migration of high and low skilled households. Work to date has shown that constraining new housing supply leads to substantial house price growth, but full equilibrium adjustments crucially depend on households’
mobility. We analyse aggregate and individual-level data and find (1) lower chances of low skilled to become a homeowner in expensive cities and (2) substantial negative effect of construction constraints on migration wage elasticity, which is larger in magnitude for low skilled households. These results could be rationalised with frictions on the mortgage market heterogeneously affecting high and low skilled in expensive cities, but this part of the paper needs to be further developed. All results are yet provisional.

Jayati Das (p), Manisha Bhor

Bruce Newbold

Changes have occurred in the regional dynamics of human mobility since the beginning of the 21st century. During the COVID-19 pandemic, changes were seen in Kolkata city mobility patterns, including in active transportation (walking, cycling, micro-mobility, and public transit use), creating a unique opportunity for global public health lessons and action. We explored the viability of using air quality as an alternative to aggregated location data in Kolkata and its surroundings. We determined whether air quality data depicted similar patterns to mobility data before, during, and after the lockdown and determined associations between air quality and mobility by computing Pearson correlation coefficients (R), conducting multivariable regression with associated confidence intervals (CIs), and visualized the relationships using scatter plots. Air pollution and climate change are major threats to rapidly growing cities in present times. Developing nations like India, which are switching from predominantly rural countries to increasingly urban, have to face critical challenges in terms of climate action and sustainable development (Van Duijne, 2017; Singh C. et al., 2021).
Climate plays a considerable role in the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutants. Climate change can influence air pollutant concentration and catalyze the formation of secondary pollutants.
Nitrogen oxide is an emerging problem in Kolkata and has recorded one of the highest levels of NOx in the country. The change in land use land cover patterns in urban areas due to ongoing urbanization affects regional climate by altering the surface and boundary layer atmospheric properties (Shepherd, 2005; Ren et al., 2008; Yang et al., 2012).
Also, climatic conditions, atmospheric parameters, and urban settlements influence the atmosphere's dispersion, accumulation, and transformation of pollutants. The dispersal of these air pollutants may cause respiratory disorders. The urban heat island effect, caused by increased urban temperature due to climate change, increases the energy requirements for cooling in cities. The air conditioners used to reduce the high temperature in cities, in turn, emit harmful GHGs that cause urban air pollution. The city residents also suffer from thermal discomfort due to elevated urban temperature by the UHI effect, which exacerbates heat waves (Ohashi et al., 2007). The UHI effect influences air quality as the differential heating generates mesoscale winds that facilitate pollutant movement and circulation causing urban air pollution issues (Agarwal and Tandon, 2010). So, air pollution and climate change are interlinked with adverse impacts on human health in Kolkata city.

Bruce Newbold (p)

Wladimir Cerda

As of the 2021 census, 19% of Canada's population was aged 65 and over (Statistics Canada, 2023), with this share projected to increase to approximately 23% by 2043 as Canada's population continues to age rapidly and fertility rates remain low (Statistics Canada, 2022). While many of older adults will expect or desire to age in place, many will move to 'downsize' their living space, move to be closer to family for support, or move into care facilities. Despite significant attention to migration flows within the labour force, there has been much less attention given to migration within Canada's older adult population. Further, while the demographic and economic impact associated with the movement of older adults is important on its own, the reason behind moves, including the role of changing health, environmental, and behavioral factors, needs additional exploration.

Drawing on the Canadian Longitudinal Survey on Aging (CLSA), this presentation will explore the patterns, motivations, and timing for moves among older adults. The CLSA is a large, national research platform on health and aging that follows 53,338 older adults (aged 45+) for around 20 years from 2010. Methods will include both descriptive and multivariate analysis of the covariates associated with migration. In addition to understanding how sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors impact the decision to migrate (or not), the CLSA includes several health, environmental, and behavioral constructs which will be evaluated for their impact on the decision to move.