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G08-O3 Climate Change and Natural Disasters: Spatial Incidence and Spatial Impacts

Tracks
Ordinary Session
Wednesday, August 27, 2025
16:30 - 18:30
Amphitheater I - SAKIS KARAGIORGAS

Details

Chair: Prof. Jen-Te Pai


Speaker

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Mr Anastasis Avgerinos Katsinis
Ph.D. Student
European Commission

Regional insights on SMEs exposure to climate change threats

Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)

Anastasis Avgerinos Katsinis (p)

Discussant for this paper

Margherita Tambussi

Abstract

Climate change poses multiple risks that require urgent action within the European Union. The escalating frequency of tragic events related to natural hazards highlights the need for spatially targeted analyses and policy design, that can inform sophisticated regional development planning and above all integrated regional strategies focused on resilience and / or crisis response.

This study focuses on the vulnerability of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) to regional climate hazards. Leveraging a micro dataset of SMEs, we geolocated these firms and matched their locations with climate hazard projection data from Copernicus. This approach allowed us to evaluate the regional SMEs' exposure to a range of climate risks, such as heatwaves and wildfires, while also analysing the covariance of these threats within specific regions.

Our findings reveal that regions can experience simultaneous exposure to multiple climate hazards, compounding their vulnerability. Moreover, certain threats are more prominent in certain areas: for example, heatwaves represent more of a threat in the South of Europe, whereas energy stress represents more of a threat in the Northern Europe. To assess potential economic impacts, we also modelled the relationship between projected heatwave exposure and labour productivity, identifying significant potential losses for SMEs.

By bridging data on the location of SMEs, climate hazards, and labour productivity, this research contributes to the debate on sustainability transitions, emphasising the need for integrated regional strategies to enhance the resilience of SMEs, and ensure they put in place sufficient adaptation and mitigation measures to remain competitive.

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Ms Margherita Tambussi
Ph.D. Student
Politecnico di Torino

Water Under the Bridge: Investigating the Economic Consequences of Floods on Italian Municipalities

Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)

Margherita Tambussi (p), Matteo Broso, Lorien Sabatino

Discussant for this paper

Alessia Mastrangioli

Abstract

Extreme weather events, exacerbated by climate change, present substantial challenges to local economies. Using geolocalized data on severe floods in Italy, this paper analyzes their medium- and long-term economic impacts on municipalities. Through an event study approach, we observe a persistent decline in population, GDP, and employment in flood-affected areas. We also document a significant increase in firm exits following these events. Moreover, we find heterogeneity in the effects across various demographic groups, firm sizes, and sectors, as well as significant spillover effects on neighboring municipalities. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted policies aimed at strengthening resilience and facilitating recovery in regions prone to such disasters.
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Dr. Alessia Mastrangioli
Post-Doc Researcher
University of L'Aquila

Building Recovery Policies After an Earthquake: A Tale from Italy

Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)

Maria Gabriela Ladu, Nadia Fiorino, Alessia Mastrangioli (p), Riccardo Persio

Discussant for this paper

Sara Miranda

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact on the labor market of the most recent earthquakes occurred in Italy in 2009 (L’Aquila), 2012 (Emilia-Romagna), and 2016 (Central Italy). In particular, we analyze sectoral specification in the affected municipalities, using a difference-in-differences approach with multiple time periods.
The novelty of this study is twofold. First, we would like to highlight the importance of the local dimension. Therefore, the analysis is conducted at the municipal level, presenting a higher granularity and accuracy. By doing so, we strive to offer a clear insight into the seismic areas that experienced the most disruption depending on the territorial specialization, as well as those that lead the recovery.
On the other hand, our analysis considers both the demand and supply sides of the labor market, an approach not previously undertaken in the previous literature, to the best of our knowledge. Our identification strategy relies firstly on the Principal Component Analysis (Joliffe, 2002) to synthesize the covariates and address multicollinearity issues and then on the difference-in-differences approach with multiple time periods (Callaway and Sant’Anna, 2021) that compares the pre- and post-earthquake situations in affected and not affected municipalities by observing a timespan from 2004 to 2021. 
Findings show that the effects vary based on the level of destructiveness of the earthquake. The shock tends to alter both the sectoral distribution and other demand characteristics. Specifically, firms in sectors less affected by the reconstruction process lean to reduce their size.
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Ms Sara Miranda
Ph.D. Student
University of Zaragoza

Evolution of the SF6 footprint: The challenge for the electricity sector

Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)

Sara Miranda Buetas (p), Cristina Sarasa Fernández, Rosa Duarte Pac

Discussant for this paper

Jen-Te Pai

Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol focused on controlling greenhouse gas emissions, including one of the most potent gases, SF6. Emissions of SF6 have been steadily increasing, largely driven by the expansion of the electricity sector. While the overall share of SF6 emissions is not alarming, global authorities are calling for its footprint to be addressed due to its high global warming potential and long atmospheric lifespan.
In this context, we developed a multiregional and multisectoral input-output model to assess the SF6 footprint from 2000 to 2022 across a range of developed and developing economies. Our analysis aims to provide a clearer understanding of the trends in SF6 emissions and to identify the key sectors where this gas is concentrated. This study examines the traceability of the SF6 footprint, focusing particularly on the electricity sector, and explores the interconnections between different countries. Preliminary findings show a general increase in the SF6 footprint over the entire period, with a deceleration in the rate of growth since 2015. Furthermore, the results highlight that China faces a significant challenge in reducing its SF6 footprint. These early findings highlight the relevance of investing in research to develop new technologies that can facilitate the substitution of SF6 in the power sector.
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Prof. Jen-Te Pai
Full Professor
National Chengchi University

Resilience Analysis and NBS strategies of Industrial Clusters and Industrial Park Planning in Taiwan

Author(s) - Presenters are indicated with (p)

Jen-Te Pai (p)

Discussant for this paper

Anastasis Avgerinos Katsinis

Abstract

In recent years, the world has been facing multiple crises such as climate change, ecological damage, economic shocks, and changes in industrial structure, severely impacting environmental security and economic development. With the advocacy of industrial globalization and sustainable development, the concept of resilience has received widespread attention. The resilience of industrial land facing both disaster and economic impacts varies, making the allocation and distribution of industrial land critically important.
This study focuses primarily on industrial land-use in Taiwan. Firstly, spatial autocorrelation analysis is used to examine the actual distribution of industrial clusters and to understand the advantageous locations that drive regional economic development. Subsequently, the resilience of industrial land in cluster areas will be evaluated, comparing and analyzing resilience levels from both disaster and economic perspectives. Finally, Geographic Information System (GIS) will be used for overlay analysis, comparing the allocation of industrial land under spatial planning, such as "New Industrial Land," " Future Development Areas," and " Urban-Rural Development Zones Type 2-3." This aims to explore the suitability evaluation of industrial park planning, providing references for future planning to select the most suitable locations for industrial land, thereby achieving the goal of appropriate land use. Furthermore, some (NBS) Natural Based Solution strategies were proposed to accompanied with the planning.
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