Uwe Neumann (p)

Ghizlen Ouasbaa Azzouani

During the past decades, urban regeneration initiatives in many countries have strived to prevent undesirable neighbourhood effects resulting from local deprivation. In many cases, policy initiatives have been based on the expectation that residential segregation and urban deprivation will increase in line with rising inequality on labour markets. While poverty remains a feature of many neighbourhoods, however, central urban areas have experienced a rising overall desirability as residential location. Gentrification of deprived quarters has therefore become a widespread trend, often leading to a rise of housing costs and displacement of low-income households. Using the nation-wide “Social City” programme in Germany as case study, the analysis explores to what extent urban regeneration policy has affected the residential population of programme areas and whether it might have spurred gentrification. The Social City was established in 1999 with the goal to support regeneration and to strengthen local civil society in deprived urban neighbourhoods. Previous research focussing on North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany´s most urbanised federal state, suggests that during the period 2009-2021 programme areas experienced a significant surplus in the increase of housing prices and rents in comparison to non-supported reference areas. In order to examine the policy outcomes across Germany as whole, the analysis uses statistics on socio-economic characteristics provided at the level of 1 km² grids (RWI GEO-GRID), micro-data on housing prices (RWI GEO-RED) and microdata from the SOEP, a large German panel study comprising extensive information about individuals and households in programme areas. The SOEP will be utilised in terms of panel estimations in order to examine whether the Social City affected income growth among the residential population in general and with a view to different income quantiles and differences between households remaining in programme areas and those moving in and out. Hedonic pricing estimations and income regressions based on data from RWI-GEO-GRID and RWI-GEO-RED will pursue the policy effects by comparison between programme and non-supported reference areas in Germany as a whole, at the level of federal states and among different sections of the city size distribution.

Ghizlen Ouasbaa Azzouani (p)

Mattia Marconi

This paper studies the impact of crime on housing price discounts and final selling prices in Catalonia leveraging a unique geocoded dataset. The data captures the trajectory of properties from their initial listing to the final transaction, alongside spatially and temporally granular crime records. Using a fixed-effects regression model, we estimate the influence of nearby criminal activity on price adjustments and negotiation dynamics. The results reveal significant effects of crime on housing price discounts, with higher crime rates leading to larger price reductions during negotiation stages and lower final selling prices. Furthermore, the magnitude of these effects varies by the type of crime and its proximity.

Riccardo Curtale (p), Mattia Marconi (p), Ricardo Barranco, Silvia Iodice, Filipe Batista e Silva

Masatomo Suzuki

The European Union is facing growing concern on housing price increases and affordability, particularly in urban centers. In response, the European Commission included housing affordability as one of its priorities for the 2024-2029 period, appointing a dedicated commissioner and task force. While immigration and short-term rentals are frequently cited by media and politicians as primary causes of these price hikes, no comprehensive EU-wide study has yet identified the underlying factors.
In this study we aim to fill this gap by generating new evidence at the EU level, mapping housing prices and affordability at the Local Administrative Unit (LAU) level. We utilize diverse data sources, including census data, Eurostat, TripAdvisor, and insights from the ESPON House4All project, to analyze the spatial distribution and dynamics of housing prices and affordability. We aim at identifying the factors influencing housing prices, such as supply-demand imbalances, population dynamics and the magnitude and impact of unoccupied dwellings and short-term rentals.
By investigating these elements, our study aims to provide a robust evidence base to inform policymakers, urban planners and stakeholders contributing to the definition of strategies for a sustainable urban development across Europe.

Masatomo Suzuki (p)

Minas Angelidis

Among the major concerns of a shrinking society is the increase in vacant and abandoned houses. To date, the United States context has been widely investigated in terms of properties being foreclosed through tax delinquency or mortgage default and the abandoned properties exhibiting negative externalities for society. In this study, we aim to shed light on the more general housing problems in shrinking societies—the context of low demand in housing markets. While foreclosure-related housing abandonment often involves the transfer of ownership rights, ownership does not change merely by houses becoming vacant.
We argue that, under the institutional settings on owners’ difficulty in abandoning property ownership, most vacant properties cannot achieve a positive equilibrium price and are no longer transactable in the formal resale market. An example of a mature but currently shrinking country in which home ownership has been promoted to achieve property-/asset-based welfare is Japan. The Japanese case demonstrates the negative outcomes of unsuccessful property transactions: owners inescapably having to maintain vacant property.
Using Japan’s case, this study conceptualizes how owners’ difficulty in abandoning property ownership affects the housing-market structure. We first develop a market framework for existing houses facing low demand, revealing that housing can be durable “bads;” that is, owners’ burden to keep unnecessary assets can result in negative property valuation. Because market transactions are basically possible only at positive prices, the formal resale market disappears, leaving properties vacant or underutilized, often without changes in ownership.
Employing nationwide property-transaction data, we then show that the probability of transactions at very low prices rises in cities facing a higher proportion of underutilized vacant houses. Such market transactions imply that the net value after subtracting demolition or maintenance costs will be negative, supporting our conceptual framework. We argue that institutional settings on owners’ difficulty in abandoning property ownership potentially hinder the utilization of vacant properties through formal market transactions.

Minas Angelidis (p)

Uwe Neumann

The housing sector in Greece, and in particular in Attica, was addressed during the country's economic crisis, very inconsistently with the declared strategies exit from the crisis. The almost deliberate shrinkage of the sector in Greece, and in particular in Attica, has contributed to the increase in unemployment and the destruction of a very important production potential, consequently to the deterioration of the urban environment and the quality of life in the Greek capital. After the crisis, the production of dwellings increased relatively limited. At the same time, many of the existing houses were converted into Airbnb tourist accommodation. The offer has, therefore, declined considerably, the market prices and rental prices for the residents of the capital have increased significantly. That is, the housing has turned into an important problem for the middle - low-income strata of Athens. The paper examines these changes in detail.
Subsequently, after a brief overview of successful corresponding policies implemented in some Community countries, we evaluate the recent policies dealing with the "lack" of houses and the rise of rents in the capital - through tax other financial arrangements and loans as well as restrictive arrangements of the Airbnb sector.
Finally, we make proposals of global (holistic) reconstruction of the housing sector with cutting actions and interventions, which: (a) prioritize the reduction of rents for the middle - low-income strata (b) are associated with appropriate urban renovations as well as with the total territorial reconstruction of the metropolitan area of Athens.