Liliana Florez (p)

Eduardo Haddad

The purpose of this paper is to share the progress of the first phase of the doctoral research: Adaptive governance models for the management of climate change scenarios in the locality of Sumapaz, Bogotá, Colombia. The hypothesis of the research is that the resolution of conflicts linked to climate change scenarios and the strengthening of ecosystem services in urban edge areas require holistic solutions. Transition Design, which contains in itself social innovation, the creation of nature-based solutions, and the recognition of the local knowledge of the community, has the potential to create new collaborations and unexpected combinations between the diverse actors of the territory that contribute to strengthening the participatory capacities of the community, allowing to address conflicts linked to the climate crisis. The research question is related to the need to contribute to strengthening the participatory capacities of organised environmental communities living in urban fringe areas in order to overcome socio-spatial inequalities linked to conflict scenarios associated with the effects of the climate crisis. The general objective is to analyse, in the context of climate change scenarios, governance processes in the management of the territory of communities living in urban fringe areas, in order to propose new models of adaptive governance that lead to new approaches to conflict resolution in the perspective of adaptation and improvement of public policies related to the climate crisis.

Eduardo Haddad (p)

Wensen Luo

This study evaluates the economic costs for three Egyptian coastal cities of catastrophic flooding resulting from either sea-level rise or intense rainfall. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework, we assess the higher-order impacts of physical capital loss on both regional and national economies. Leveraging global flood hazard maps for various scenarios and return periods, and a 100-meter-resolution buildings-exposure model, which estimates the replacement value of residential and non-residential buildings at each floor level, we estimate the share of physical capital at risk. Our analysis covers Egypt’s main port cities on the Mediterranean Sea (Alexandria, Damietta, and Port Said), taking into account seven scenarios and three intensities of destruction. Results indicate significant variability in economic impacts, with coastal flooding due to sea-level rise posing a more substantial threat to Port Said and Damietta, whereas pluvial flooding from intense rainfall would more heavily impact Alexandria. The findings underscore the need for targeted investments in climate resilience, particularly for coastal infrastructure, to mitigate future economic losses.

Wensen Luo (p), Qian Shi, Chao Xiao

Antje Jantsch

As global warming accelerates, heatwaves are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide, placing immense pressure on infrastructure systems and triggering cascading disruptions. While buildings with the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems help mitigate occupants’ heat exposure, widespread power outages exacerbate the risks. Research has been conducted on building performance during power outages in heatwaves. However, limited attention has been given to the impacts of future, hotter weather conditions and the spatial variability introduced by urban heat island (UHI) effects.
This study examines urban-scale building performances during heatwave-induced power outages from a spatio-temporal perspective. Temporally, future weather conditions for 2050 and 2080 were derived by morphing typical meteorological year (TMY) files using the CMCC-CM2-SR5 model (CMIP6) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework. Spatially, these future weather files were downscaled using the urban weather generator (UWG) model, incorporating UHI effects through urban morphology analysis. The downscaled weather data were then applied in EnergyPlus to simulate building performance across urban patches—small regions delineated by road networks.
Applying this spatio-temporal morphing approach to Phoenix, U.S., we found that annual average temperatures could rise by 10% in 2050 and 19% in 2080, significantly affecting building performance. The indoor overheating degree (IOD) was projected to increase by an average of 52% in 2050 and 102% in 2080. Moreover, substantial spatial variations were observed within the city, with a maximum IOD difference of 199% between urban patches. These findings highlighted that relying solely on historical TMY files could lead to a significant underestimation of climate change impacts, both temporally and spatially. Based on these insights, more effective and targeted urban heat adaptation and mitigation strategies are essential. These may include implementing building retrofitting and urban renewal programs, as well as developing emergency infrastructure to enhance resilience against extreme heat events.

Lena Kuhn, Antje Jantsch (p)

Hiroyuki Shibusawa

Between 2015 and 2020, emigration from Western Balkan countries increased by nearly half a million people, driven by economic hardship, political instability, and conflict. Recently, environmental factors, particularly climate change, have emerged as significant migration drivers, especially in rural agricultural areas. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events negatively impact livelihoods. However, individuals' perceptions of climate change vary based on socio-economic and cultural contexts, influencing migration decisions differently than objective climate data.
Despite growing research on climate-induced migration, Southeast Europe remains underexplored, with limited studies utilizing remote sensing data to assess climate shocks' effects. This study addresses gaps in understanding whether cumulative climate shocks and long-term trends impact migration intentions differently than isolated climate events. It also examines discrepancies between subjective climate perceptions and objective climate measures in shaping migration decisions.
Using a probit model, the study analyzes data from the RuWell (Rural Well-being in Transition: Multidimensional Drivers and Effects on (Im)Mobility) project, a 2024 household survey in Albania, Kosovo, Moldova, and Romania. The individual-level data was complemented with current and historical precipitation and temperature data (~10km spatial resolution) from the ERA5-Land product. Based on this data, also SPEI values were calculated along the Hargreaves method. Additionally, night-time lights were added to approximate economic development in the respective regions. This data was obtained from the Annual Global VIIRS Nighttime Lights dataset offering a spatial resolution of 465 meters per pixel.
Findings indicate that cumulative climate stress over five years has a stronger association with migration intentions than recent extreme events, while perceived climate trends show no significant correlation. These insights are crucial for designing adaptive policies that mitigate migration pressures and enhance rural resilience.

Hiroyuki Shibusawa (p), Mingji Cui

Liliana Florez

In Japan, the economy of urban areas is shrinking due to population decline, and there are concerns about the decline in the resilience and sustainability of urban and regional economies in the event of a large-scale disaster risk. Recent experiences of natural disasters have shown that damage caused by risks to infrastructure, energy, and supply chains during disasters spreads to the entire socio-economy, prolonging recovery. By reducing such disaster risks and preparing for sound resilience, it is expected that a transition to a sustainable economic system will be made.

In recent resilience research, emphasis has been placed on approaches that strengthen resilience in advance in the event of a future risk occurrence (Hoopes 2017, Aroca et al. 2021, Nijkamp 2023). In Japan, it is still fresh in our memory that the risks of infrastructure, energy, and supply chains surfaced and economic damage expanded during the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Noto Peninsula Earthquake. In addition to the increasing frequency of floods and other disasters caused by climate change across the country, the possibility of huge disasters such as a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough and an earthquake directly beneath the capital is increasing, and it is time to tackle this research topic as soon as possible. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of measures and policies before and after a disaster, an analytical framework that takes into account the temporal and spatial dependencies of economic activity in urban areas is necessary.

This study attempts to develop a dynamic spatial IO model for municipalities in Aichi Prefecture. Previous studies have not fully evaluated the impact of damage to the infrastructure service sector. We use simulations to analyze the damage and recovery process caused by the breakdown of production activities and infrastructure services in areas affected by the tsunami. In this paper, we mainly focus on the impact of fluctuations in the recovery speed of infrastructure services (electricity, water, gas, transportation, etc.) on regional economic damage. We clarify the impact of delays in the recovery of infrastructure services in municipalities in Aichi Prefecture on the recovery of the entire regional economy.

Keywords: tsunami, dynamic IO model, infrastructure services, simulation, evaluation