Balázs György Forman (p)

Cui Zhang

The role of luck, uncertainty, risks, asymmetric and imperfect information in regional development

The role of uncertainty and risks in regional development
Uncertainty is the situation when an economic event occurs
- we do not know with complete certainty the expected result, output,
- we do not know with complete certainty the expected sectoral, general and regional effects,
- we do not fully understand all the external and internal circumstances influencing the output, the results and the effects.
Market competition itself is a factor affecting uncertainty. In the first case, we assume that the implementer of the economic event or a development is alone in the market. In the second case, we assume that two actors compete with each other. In the third case, we assume that there is a large number of players in the market.
Another factor of uncertainty comes from the behavior of competitors in the market. Here we assume that the individual actors are legally independent from each other, well prepared and capable of creating an independent strategy. The segmentation of the spatial and sectoral markets and the identification of the types of behavior of market participants - innovators, early and late followers, dropouts - make it possible to determine the factors that cause uncertainty.
We first assume that the available resources - human, material, natural - are available in unlimited quantities. Second, we assume that one or all of the available resources are limited in quantity.
First, we assume that the distribution of available information is perfect. Then, for the second time, we assume that the distribution of information is asymmetric.


The role of chance: the role of individuals in regional developments, the greats of urban planning and construction

The role of luck: in the discovery of crude oil: the Middle East, Nigeria, the choice of car factories in Central Europe

The role of uncertainty in economic development based on FDI

Risks: natural disasters, external economic shocks,

Asymmetric information: formation of bubble economies in real estate markets, asymmetric economic shocks.

Imperfect information: non-transparent decision-making in regional developments, if there is no partnership, if different actors decide against each other

Cui Zhang (p), Baifang Wang

Luca Buzzanca

Does intercity innovation collaboration contribute to the catch-up of laggard cities? We study this question in China and show that intercity innovation collaboration helps laggard cities catch up with frontier cities. Technological capability improvement is an important underlying mechanism. However, the role of intercity innovation collaboration in catching up varies according to the partner chosen. Collaboration with frontier cities is more important for laggard cities to close the gap with the frontier than collaboration with other laggard cities. Furthermore, we show that intercity innovation collaboration widens the gap between laggard cities close to the frontier and those further from the frontier, with important implications for innovation disparities.

Luca Buzzanca (p), Carlo Caporali

Balázs György Forman

We study how Nigerian mafias exploit the vulnerability of people affected by climatic shocks through human trafficking to increase their illicit activities in Italy. Exploiting two empirical strategies, a shift-share IV and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that climatic shocks occurring in Edo State result in an increase in crimes related to human trafficking in Italy. The effect on crimes becomes significant after three quarters and lasts up to three years. Additionally, it is strongly correlated with the density of Nigerian communities in Italian provinces, suggesting that social networks play a key role in driving trafficking-related crimes. Our findings indicate that climatic shocks can have nontrivial implications for organized crime.