Manuel Wolff (p), Vlad Mykhnenko , Tim Leibert, Thorsten Wiechmann

Elżbieta Zysk

The COVID-19 pandemic was a significant traumatic moment for all territories in Europe. As millions fell ill, thousands died and border closures restricted international migration, Europe's population stagnated for the first time since the end of the Second World War. By the last year of the pandemic, it was clear that any discussion of the pandemic's impact on territories must take into account the overlapping effects of parallel shocks and interlocking crises of varying relevance to demographic structures and trends. Between 2020 and 2023, the pandemic led to a significant number of excess deaths, falling birth rates and significant out-migration to previously growing areas such as cities. Russian military aggression in Ukraine since 2022 has forced millions of people to flee the war, leading to huge immigration into European territories - a challenge that reminds policymakers of the so-called refugee crisis of 2015-16. In addition, the legacies of past crises are echoed in recent demographic developments, such as falling birth rates and the subsequent excess of deaths in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis of 2007-2012. In addition, there are slowly emerging dynamic trends such as the long-term ageing of society, especially in depopulating areas, which led to a situation where the proportion of Europeans aged 65 and over in the total population exceeded 20% in 2018.
While it is increasingly difficult to disentangle the effects of single crises, this paper is interested in investigating how robust territories are with respect to single, agglomerated and recurrent shocks, building on theoretical frameworks of polycrisis and spatial resilience. A robust monitoring assessment of demographic indicators for municipalities in Europe, disaggregated to ensure comparability in collaboration with the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, maps and characterises the disturbance regimes of European demography between 2012-2023.
In the face of the increasing turbulence and uncertainty of European demographic trends in a context of polycrises, this approach highlights which areas are particularly exposed to certain crises, which show a certain resistance to them, which have the capacity to recover and which do not. Finally, the analysis of the role of births, deaths and net migration in these changes makes it possible to elaborate the multiple role of crisis in a spatially explicit and differentiated perspective in order to inform and support current and future spatial policies in Europe dealing with multiple crises.

Elżbieta Zysk (p)

Sangwon Choi

Urban development and the growth of the older citizen population pose new challenges for spatial policy in urban areas. Taking into consideration the variety of needs and expectations of vulnerable groups (older people) as residents and users of urban public spaces is a fundamental task facing today's city managers. The aim of this research is to elaborate on the determinants relevant to vulnerable groups (older people) in identifying the friendliness of urban public spaces in the concept of 15-minute cities. Various methods and techniques were used to realise the set aim. The added value of the research conducted is the complementation of the required knowledge on age-friendly cities in the concept of 15-minute cities.
An original input is the development of a universal methodology for the identification of Strategic Intervention Areas for the 60+ population (SAI 60+), validated on the example of a selected city in Poland.

Sangwon Choi (p), Soyoon Kim, Brian Kim

Federica Rossi

Married women’s career continuity supports higher fertility rates by enhancing household economic stability for childbearing and childrearing. However, the impact of career continuity on fertility is likely to vary with household economic factors, such as income, housing status, and debt levels. Analyzing this heterogeneity can inform policies that amplify the positive influence of career continuity on childbirth. To explore these dynamics, this study applies causal forests to examine how post-marital career continuity affects first childbirth within Korean households facing ultra-low fertility rates. Results indicate that married women’s career continuity positively influences the likelihood of first childbirth, with a notably stronger effect in households with lower incomes, renter status, and higher debt levels. These findings contribute a new perspective on the relationship between women’s career continuity and fertility, highlighting the potential for targeted policy approaches to support increased fertility rates.

Federica Rossi (p), Tiziano Pavanini

Alexander Blandon Lopez

According to the World Health Organization (WHO, 2022) the global population is aging at an unprecedented pace: experts predict that by 2030, 1 in 6 people in the world will be over 60. In order to better address this phenomenon at a global level, WHO created a program of policies and measures together with the member states, called "The Decade of Healthy Aging 2020-2030", aimed at supporting each country in tackling the economic and social implications that this trend entails (Rudnicka et al., 2020). In scenarios of this nature, local public transport (LPT) assumes a crucial function in mitigating the social and economic discrimination that often accompanies the retirement phase for the elderly. In this context, active ageing policies, delineated as "the process of optimising health, participation and safety opportunities to enhance the quality of life of ageing individuals" (WHO, 2002), ensure that the elderly maintain good health, psychological well-being, and elevated levels of happiness (Kim et al., 2021). Nevertheless, the failure of local governments to provide adequate solutions has a negative impact on the accessibility of the elderly to LPT. Indeed, it has been observed that the elderly often avoid using LPT altogether, preferring to use cars instead (Sun and Lau 2021). The objective of the present study is to administer a questionnaire to elderly people residing in the Italian cities of Milan and Genoa in order to ascertain their primary mobility needs and the factors that motivate or impede their transition from private transportation to shared mobility solutions. The results of this study are expected to provide decision-makers with more precise indications, thereby encouraging them to cease the planning of public transport provision in an aggregate manner. It is imperative that they recognise that different age groups correspond to different needs and requirements. This is particularly salient in the case of the elderly, who must be assured improved accessibility to the LPT and to all urban services.

Alexander Blandon Lopez (p), Janeth Gonzalez Rubio, John Alexander Blandon Castaño

Manuel Wolff

Climate change and generational renewal on coffee farms are two fundamental challenges for the future competitiveness of the coffee industry in Colombia. Migration of youth to urban areas among other factors is responsible for this trend and affects mainly small coffee producers.
From the study by Leibovich et al. (2022) it is possible to deduce a demographic trend in the department of Tolima which capital is Ibague, that presents important challenges for the competitiveness of the coffee sector in the region. The gradual decline of the population in coffee-growing households, combined with the ageing of producers and the migration of young people to urban areas, could generate a shortage of skilled labor, particularly critical during harvest periods. This situation is likely to put upward pressure on production costs, as farmers will have to compete for workers.
In the municipality of Ibague, there are 4,515 coffee growers (3,160 men and 1,351 women) who mostly have coffee plantations between 1 to 5 hectares (ha) (65%), followed by less than 1 ha (31.1%); therefore, more than 90% are small and medium producers. The total area planted with coffee amounts to 8,797.6 ha (FNC & IGAC, 2017).
The main purpose of this research is to determine why generational replacement is a critical challenge for the future sustainability of coffee production in the Colombian municipality of Ibague and design strategies to maintain the activity attractive for young producers.
The theoretical framework of the research is supported by two fields of literature, Global value chains and employment and labor studies, in particular the area associated with human resource development. The type of research is quantitative, the scope is descriptive, correlational and analytical, the method is deductive, and the design is non-experimental. A convenience sampling was determined for 37 producers in the municipality of Ibague.
The partial findings of the study show that generational replacement is one of the main challenges faced by coffee producers, where 47.6% of those included in the sample indicate that they have assured family continuity in the coffee activity, while 33.3% have no replacement and 19% are in an uncertain situation. These findings suggest a well-established model of family farming, but with some future challenges for the continuity of these productive units.