Celia Melguizo (p), Juan Alberto, Sanchis - Llopis

Daniele Mantegazzi

In 2020, population flows experienced a significant trend reversal. The pandemic outbreak caused major cities around the globe to experience net population losses, giving rise to a novel phenomenon known as the "Covid exodus." In the early stages of the pandemic, authorities imposed a state of lockdown on the population and ordered businesses to temporarily cease all non-essential operations. Following that, restrictions to prevent a population massive infection continued to have an impact on the economy and everyday life in the “new normality”, particularly in cities. The inability to enjoy the cultural and social amenities that larger cities typically offer, stricter lockdown measures, and fear of contagion are likely some of the non-economic factors that pushed people out of urban areas. Economic factors, like job loss and increased housing costs in cities may also contribute to explain why people wanted to relocate. In addition, teleworking, a phenomenon that refers to performing a productive activity remotely, gained popularity and gave people the freedom to choose where to reside, regardless of where their work centres are. Considering the role of high-speed internet access and touristic attractiveness, factors that are not typically considered in the literature, makes it relevant and interesting to determine the impact of the pandemic shock on the population flow motivations. As a result, we examine in this study what factors contributed to attract people in 2020 in Spain. In order to do so, we use the Residential Variation Statistics micro dataset, which collects data on each individual move that implies a municipality change. It also considers the migrant's individual traits, such as nationality, birthplace, date of birth, and gender, making it possible to pinpoint the reasons why particular groups migrate. According to preliminary findings, tourist attractiveness in destinations and high-speed internet connectivity both significantly and increasingly influence population flows.

Michael Betz (p)

Celia Melguizo

Fertility decisions have important implications for long-term societal well-being. Fertility rates below the natural replacement rate pose significant challenges for societies through aging populations and smaller shares of the population participating in the labor force. However, fertility trends have been declining for the past half century in the U.S. and fertility rates are now below natural replacement levels. These issues are particularly relevant to rural areas, with data from the 2020 Decennial Census showing aggregate rural population loss for the first time on record. To mitigate broader societal impacts of declining fertility rates, policymakers must consider how current and future policies impact fertility decisions. Early estimates show the recent COVID-19 pandemic and associated stay-at-home orders have further reduced fertility rates in the United States (Osterman et al. 2022; Kearney and Levine 2022; Bailey, Currie, and Schwandt 2022). Our study builds on this work by using restricted county-level National Center for Health Statistics data to estimate the causal impact of stay-at-home orders on birth and death outcomes across metro and non-metro areas to determine the net impact county specific rates of natural increase. We use exogenous variation from differential timing and duration of shutdown orders across states to determine whether—and to what extent—stay-at-home orders impacted rural and urban demographic factors differently.

Daisuke Ikazaki (p)

Michael Betz

Many developed countries are facing declining fertility rates and an ageing population. One important factor affecting fertility decline is the increase in childless households. We extend the simple OLG model to examine the impact of the rise in childless households on household utility. In our model, we assume that individuals have different preferences for children. Some households may choose not to have children as a result of utility maximisation. In other words, the proportion of childless households is endogenously determined. Our model reveals that an increase in the childlessness rate tends to have a negative impact on household utility. Next, we also examine childcare support policies. Adverse effects of higher taxes exist for childcare support policies. On the other hand, there is also the effect of a reduction in the cost of raising children and the enhancement of social security due to an increase in the number of children. The latter two are positive effects. Our numerical example suggests that significantly more than a majority of households support the introduction of childcare support policies, although the desired tax rate varies considerably among households.

Masood Gheasi, Matt Ryan, Edson Utazi, Daniele Mantegazzi (p), Paolo Spada

Daisuke Ikazaki

In the last decades, migration has been a hot topic at the national, cantonal, and municipal levels in Switzerland (among other countries) and several referendums obtained sufficient consensus in imposing restrictions on migration or banning certain cultural representations (such as ban on minarets of mosques). This study investigates the spatial-temporal dimension of voting patterns in Switzerland on different types of referendums related to migration, and observes their relationship with linguistic, socioeconomic, and local characteristics in a multilevel temporal spatial model. Particular attention is dedicated to voting pattern’s variations related to the three Swiss instruments of direct democracy: mandatory referendums, optional referendums, and popular initiatives. The results highlight the existence of significant differences among Swiss municipalities in their voting patterns on referendums related to migration and indicate that these differences are associated with inequalities in local economic welfare, education, age, language, and political ideologies. Moreover, differences in voting behaviour are observed in relationship with the three different instruments of direct democracy, and these differences vary depending on the local socio-demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Overall, this study suggests that the availability and exploitation of different instruments of direct democracy allows giving more voice to more and different people.