Kazunari Tanaka (p), Haru Kanca

Sigal Kaplan

As the population declines and the birthrate declines and the population ages, the elderly will become the center of the city. In addition, although intensive urban structures have been studied in recent years, it is expected that walking and public transportation will be the main means of transportation. From these facts, there is a possibility that the occurrence of crossing violations and the mortality rate will be less likely to decrease as the number of pedestrians and the elderly increases. One of the causes of crossing violations is that the conventional design methods have been planned to prioritize cars, making it difficult for pedestrians to use. Therefore, I thought it was important to focus on the case where the flow line of the pedestrian could not be controlled.
Therefore, as basic research for designing and planning a city that is safe for moving pedestrians, this research aims to predict the behavior, mainly focusing on the flow lines of pedestrians.
In the analysis of the survey results, the focus was on the trajectories taken from the videos. The difference between the direction of the trajectory of the pedestrian’s crossing violators and the direction to a destination will be used in the evaluation. The larger value, the more likely it is that the sidewalk will not be able to control pedestrians, i.e., that crossing violations will occur from there if there are no guardrails, etc.
The analysis method involves fitting a virtual grid to the station square and calculating the trajectory of the pedestrian’s crossing violators and the value of the applicable mesh.
In this study, pedestrian movements were captured on video, and the characteristics of their trajectories were analyzed. As a result, the relationship between the staying population density and pedestrian flow lines was found. The value that controls or promotes pedestrian flow lines on the sidewalk itself, was visualized as a simple predictor of where pedestrian crossing violations would occur. In the future, we plan to increase the number of data samples and analyze the characteristics of the data over time and the relationship with other traffic in more detail, as is the case with the data on accidents involving people and vehicles.

Shai Shachar, Sigal Kaplan (p), Peter Billig, Alfred Stein

Kazunari Tanaka

An in-depth analysis of road safety performance is an integral part of the safe system approach and the Vision-Zero commitment. Statistics show that Vision-Zero has a fruitful aggregative long-term impact but data-driven disaggregate analysis of the short-term effect of Vision-Zero is scarce with knowledge gaps related to both outcomes and applied methodologies. In this study, we estimate a Geyer Saturation point process model for modeling the effect of Vision-Zero on crash intensity and dispersion before and after the implementation of Vision-Zero. Taking New York City as the case study, we analyze the effect gradual implementation of the policy starting in 2014. The before-and-after analysis data includes matching 8,165 pedestrian injury data with improvement location and completion dates, considering a two-year time lag before and after each improvement and a difference between treatment and a control site. Covariates include traffic exposure, proximity to land uses, vegetation, and risk-prone areas. The results show that the treatment has a significant short-term effect of holding down the increase in pedestrian-related crashes compared with the treatment group.