Dylan Jong (p), Steven Craig

Frank van Oort

This paper empirically estimates the fiscal response of local governments to natural resource windfalls. The fracking boom in Texas is used to specifically identify how local governments in a developed country allocate local government windfalls. We use difference-in-difference estimations to identify impacts for both local general purpose governments, as well as local single purpose school districts. This distinction is important because of how both types of local governments are differently affected, both in terms of their revenues as well as their responsibilities with regards to (possible) negative externalities from the fracking-boom. We find that general purpose governments receive a property tax windfall, and only a very small sales tax windfall. These governments expend a considerable share of their new resources on coping with changes caused by the boom. Specifically, we see increased spending on police, judicial administration and roads. These extra expenditures however, do not exhaust the extra resources. We observe a large build-up of cash balances, and as well a reduction in the issuance of new debt. School districts appear to be following a different path, consistent with their different institutional context. Despite their reduction in state aid, we find that school districts receive a serious property tax windfall. These windfalls are used to increase capital expenditures on education. Unlike general purpose governments, we find school districts in treated counties have added on substantial new debt. This debt has the result that school districts are allowed to charge higher property tax rates than otherwise would be permitted without debt.

Luise Koeppen (p), Dimitris Ballas, Arjen Edzes, Sierdjan Koster

Frank van Oort

Over the past decade, populism has expanded, especially radical right and left parties and their respective voter bases. Oftentimes, voting patterns are unevenly distributed over space, which makes it very relevant to explore, along with other relevant factors. This will increase our understanding of the rise of populist parties, its spatial pattern and policy implications accordingly. While previous research on populism is traditionally focusing on developments of socio-economic conditions and value-change as the main explanation, we link these determinants in contemporary European democracies to lower levels of subjective well-being (SWB), and ultimately, to higher likelihood of voting for the radical right and left parties. In particular, this study proposes a holistic framework to explain regional variations in voting for radical right and left parties by exploring how socio-economic insecurities and tensions caused by changing societal value structures within society are likely to provide a fertile ground for part of the electorate to indicate a lower level of subjective well-being.
The empirical evidence for our research is supported by using comparative survey data, such as the European Social Survey (ESS) data collected between 2010-2018. In addition to examining the link between subjective well-being and political preferences, contextual factors at the regional level across Europe are considered as well. Methodologically, we adopt a multilevel modelling approach to analyse voting behaviour and to also examine subjective happiness indicators in relation to factors of political geography.

Jurgena Myftiu (p), Chiara Gigliarano, Elena Maggi, Andrea Scagni

Frank van Oort

See extended abstract

ABSTRACT
This study aims to understand and analyze the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on transport mode choices.
The focus of the paper is on university commuting, and it concerns the determinants of the propensity to change modal choices with respect to usual transport means used to reach the college. The data used have been collected through a national survey on university mobility at the time of Covid-19, carried out from July to September 2020 by the Italian Network of Universities for Sustainable Development (RUS). The final sample is composed by 114,000 observations (students: 79.4%; faculty: 11%; technical-administrative staff: 9.6%). The respondents were asked to express their choices and travel habits pre and post-Covid, considering two alternative pandemic scenarios, i.e., optimistic or pessimistic with respect to the risk of contagion.
The study presents two research questions. The first concerns the propensity to change the habitual commute mode used before the pandemic. Consequently, by estimating a probit model, we investigated the direction of the change of the chosen means of transport. To answer to the second research question, we developed a multinomial logit model, analyzing the transitions from PT towards private cars or active mobility (biking, walking). Both the analyses were compared in the two pandemic scenarios, mainly to understand the perception of the risk of Covid-19 contagion, as it might conceivably affect the commute mode choice.