María del Carmen Delgado López, Alejandro Fonseca Zendejas (p), Raymundo Juárez del Toro

Tatiana Blinova

Population displacement and its structure affects society through the participation of the active population in the labour market. It has been considered that the correct integration of migrants in the labour market helps to mitigate the negative effects of the aging population, especially in advanced economies such as Spain. This article seeks to examine the main determinants of interregional migration in Spain, specifically the immigration flows perceived in Madrid by the most populated autonomous communities. To accomplish this task, two mechanisms will be applied to estimate and predict the entry of people into the destination community. First, a simple vector autoregressive (VAR) model is developed to measure the influence exerted by the variables used. Then an extension to the Kalman filter is adapted to improve the estimation with noise that does not follow a normal distribution. To do so, educational level, expected salary, price of housing, participation of agriculture, construction and services in GDP and dependency ratio (considering young and old-age dependency) are considered as concluding variables. It is expected that the results obtained will provide an overview of the most important determinants of internal migration in Spain among the migratory flows for each autonomous community, considered as a place of origin, to Madrid.

Nur Bilge (p), Jan Fidrmuc

Alejandro Fonseca Zendejas

The Syrian Civil War started in 2011 after the Syrian government sought to suppress pro-democracy protests encouraged by the Arab Spring. The ensuing military civil conflict resulted in large-scale displacement of population within Syria as well as large flows of refugees across Syrian borders. In the course of the conflict, some 6.6 million Syrian moved to other countries (UNHCR, 2020). The main foreign recipient country of this refugee inflow has been Turkey hosting at present some 3.6 million Syrian refugees, which constitutes 4.3% of Turkey's population, in addition to 370 thousand refugees from Afghanistan, Iraq, and other countries (European Commission, 2020; UNHCR, 2020). Turkey has applied an "open-door" policy to these refugees. This research will build on and extend the existing literature on the labour market impact of refugee inflows in Turkey.

The Syrian refugee migration offers a unique opportunity to study the labor-market effects of immigration: the Syrian crises lead to a one-off influx of refugees to Turkey, which meets all the criteria of a quasi-experimental setting: it was sudden, unexpected, unrelated to economic conditions in Turkey, and largely concentrated geographically.
The analysis will therefore estimate a difference-in-difference model of the impact of immigration on the local labor-market outcomes: employment, unemployment, wages, participation, and the like. This research will be carried out with the micro level labour force survey data set (2005-2020) from TURKSTAT.

Since most refugees in Turkey reside outside of refugee camps, their location choices may be motivated by economic conditions as well as by other considerations. The consequence of this is endogeneity bias in the relationship between refugee concentrations and labor-market outcomes. Dealing with endogeneity requires suitable instruments. Besides the traditional approach based on the so-called shift-share instrument, this analysis will also introduce a novel alternative instrumental variable: electoral outcomes at the local level. Specifically, Turkish political parties differ in their attitudes towards refugees and non-Turks in general. Therefore, the welcome that the refugees receive in different districts or municipalities is likely to reflect the political orientation of the local government.

The previous literature find that the refugee influx to Turkey affected native Turkish males and females differently. The labour force survey data identify not only individuals but also household. As an additional contribution, this research will therefore utilize this feature of the data to assess also the impact of immigration on the division of labor within the household.

Hyeji Jang (p)

Nur Bilge

This study examines the determinants of international migration flows in South Korea, focusing on the impact of bilateral aid on migration. Using comprehensive panel data of the past two decades, covering 144 migrant-sending countries listed as recipients of South Korean ODA from 2000 to 2019, this paper finds that bilateral ODA has significantly and positively influenced immigration to South Korea. Major findings include: 1) immigration flows to South Korea are consistent with the prediction of the gravity model, 2) bilateral ODA from South Korea has a positive impact on immigration to the country and have been particularly significant since 2010 when Korea joined the OECD DAC, 3) South Korea’s Priority Partner Country is an important determining factor relative to other variables, and 4) examining under-represented countries provides policy implications on the way forward.