András Igari (p)

David Martín-Barroso

The Coronavirus pandemic severely affected the whole world, including Europe, and was characterised by considerable territorial inequalities. In my presentation, I will examine some of these spatial inequalities related to COVID-19 pandemic. I will present the theories of epidemic diffusion in regional science (and related disciplines) and how they have been confirmed by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. To do this, I collect regional-level, weekly pandemic data from European countries for the first two years of the pandemic (from January 2020 to Spring 2022).
Based on the available data (number of reported cases, number of reported COVID-19 deaths, excess mortality etc. - taking into account the issues regarding to the use of these data), I analyse the spatial characteristics of the COVID-19 waves, with a particular focus on the geographical reasons behind the differences. On the one hand, I will show the different spatial pattern of the spread of each pandemic wave across Europe and on the other hand how the spatial pattern of mortality rates has changed. I will use a multi-scale spatial approach; I will highlight inequalities related to the European centre-periphery relationship and macro-regional differences, as well as inequalities among regional typologies (urban-rural, coastal, island, mountainous, sparsely populated, etc.). I will also examine the changing vulnerability of European countries and regions over the two years under review (age structure and co-morbidity, acquisition of resistance through former infection and vaccination, etc.), and how this has affected the changes in territorial inequalities of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, I will summarise the results and identify the different spatial patterns of each wave of the pandemic and outline the possible reasons behind them.

Balázs Páger (p), Sándor Zsolt Kovács, Annamária Uzzoli, Tamás Szabó

András Igari

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered health crisis all over the world. Current challenges on health and healthcare are long-term, and their all socio-spatial impacts remain unpredictable. This presentation reviews spatial features of the pandemic waves to discover how restrictions and mitigation interventions influenced the spatial distribution of infection in Hungary.
Our research is based on a statistical analysis and a content-analysis to make a deeper understanding of the connection between space and health. It examines the regional distribution of the novel coronavirus pandemic in Hungary related to its morbidity and mortality data. The examination also presents a comprehensive review of the COVID-19 pandemic waves and their changes in terms of space and time. There is a comparison of the growth rates of infection and death numbers to explore the spatial pattern of each pandemic wave.
Among the most important results can be highlighted that there is a marked transformation of the spatial characteristics during the pandemic waves within the country. While geographical hotspots influenced the first wave in 2020, newly confirmed coronavirus cases in the second and third waves were due to community-based epidemic spreading in 2021. Furthermore, the western-eastern spatial relation and the core-periphery model also affected the regional distribution of new cases in the fourth and fifth waves in 2022. However, a spatial pattern based on the northern-southern spatial orientation appeared during the third wave, but it remained relevant also during the other waves.
According to our findings, it is also worth mentioning that the most developed and urbanised centres in Hungary are significantly influenced by COVID-19 cases, while peripheries are primarily affected by COVID-19 deaths. Poor health conditions have a more substantial role in the number and rate of deaths with the most disadvantaged areas experiencing the highest COVID-19 death rates. National level mitigation measures play the primary role in the anti-epidemic approach in Hungary.
The outputs of this paper offer feasible suggestions for evidence-based policymaking in future pandemic waves prevention, mitigation, and preparedness.

Alberto Hildalgo, David Martín-Barroso (p), Juan A. Nuñez-Serrano, Jaime Turrión, Francisco Velázquez

Balázs Páger

This paper analyses the regional economic impact of COVID-19 in Spain using employment growth as a proxy of economic activity. To this end, we propose a theoretical framework that differentiates between the sources of the effects derived from COVID-19, i.e., the intensity of the pandemic on the one hand, and on the other, the set of public policies aimed at mitigating the effects on public health (restrictions, nonpharmaceutical interventions) and economic activity (furlough schemes and firm support). Furthermore, by formulating a regression model that introduces term interactions, we also analyze the channels through which the effects are transmitted towards the dependent variable, i.e., employment growth (direct, provincial, sectoral and the type of employment contracts). The data used is based on information on social security contributors and their characteristics. We also use Google Trends to measure both the intensity of the restrictions in each region and the public support to companies.

The main findings can be summarized along the following six points: (i) The regional effects are more intense and diverse at the beginning of the pandemic and when the pandemic intensifies, and tend to be offset over time; (ii) There is clear evidence that the negative effects are caused to a greater extent by the restrictions than by the intensity of the pandemic.; (iii) Furlough schemes have fulfilled the function of allowing the early incorporation of workers to economic activity, as well as their social role. Nonetheless, they have been less effective for the economic recovery than other kinds of public support to firm, such as the state-backed loan schemes to firms, which were rapidly granted and posed accessible conditions regarding their loan terms and repayment possibilities; (iv) Amongst the transmission channels, the role of temporary hiring is evidenced as one of the mechanisms, together with furlough schemes, to reduce effective employment, nonetheless associated to higher social costs and no guarantees of workers return to firms. (v) There is also evidence of the greater relevance of sectoral effects than the idiosyncratic regional ones. Part of the total regional effects results from the productive structure, especially those-dependent tourism regions. (vi) Finally, there is no evidence of changes in regional dynamics along the whole period of analysis since the regional divergence observed at the beginning of the pandemic is eventually offset once the economic activity is reactivated.