Rudiger Ahrend, Manuel Bétin, Maria Paula Caldas, Boris Cournède, Marcos Díaz Ramírez, Pierre-Alain Pionnier, Daniel Sanchez-Serra, Paolo Veneri (p), Volker Ziemann

Steven Deller

This paper analyses the uneven geography of the COVID-19 health impact in OECD and European countries. It first describes the increase in all-cause mortality – i.e. excess mortality – across subnational regions between January and December 2020. Subsequently, it investigates the regional factors associated with higher excess mortality, looking at demographic, socio-economic, institutional and environmental features of regions. Results show that excess mortality has a significant spatial dimension, with the hardest hit regions having excess mortality rates that were, on average, 17 percentage points higher than the least affected regions in the same country. During the first year of the pandemic, lower health system capacity, followed by population density, air pollution, share of elderly population and lower institutional quality were associated with higher excess mortality. While health system capacity and population density have been strongly associated to excess mortality throughout the COVID-19 crisis, trust in government and air pollution showed stronger correlations with excess mortality in the later phases of the pandemic. Finally, prolonged remote working, particularly after two-months, is also associated with lower excess mortality.

Alan Murray (p), Susan Burtner

Paolo Veneri

It is well established that a variety of physical distancing measures are invaluable as part of the overall response to coronavirus spread. This respiratory disease is transmitted through interaction, necessitating steps to minimize or eliminate the potential for exposure. Of course this is driven by a desire to keep the economy moving, allow for social activity, continue education, support the livelihoods of individuals, etc. Regional science and supporting analytics have an important role in managing activity through the development and application of methods that enable spatial interaction that mitigates transmission. This paper details methods that have been developed and applied at micro-scales, enabling the return of activities through measured responses in the context of physical distancing. Geographic information systems combined with spatial optimization are utilized to balance risk. Applications detailing office space occupancy and travel along with room seating are highlighted.

Stephan Goetz, Steven Deller (p)

Alan Murray

The patterns of COVID death rates across the U.S. almost appears random with respect to underlying socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of local communities. The pandemic does not appear to have impacted certain types of communities relative to others If we are to better prepare for future pandemics, however, we need to better understand the characteristics of communities that may be more at risk. This exploratory study seeks to explore socioeconomic and demographic characteristics associated with COVID death rates. We undertake this study under the umbrella of modeling uncertainty. Specifically, we use a Spatial Bayesian Model Averaging approach to explore a large modeling space to determine which community characteristics are most associated with COVID death rates.